Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | MEND claimed responsibility for two bomb explosions yesterday at Niger Delta facilities of Agip and Shell. There were no causalities. |
Implications | MEND has been warning of new attacks since taking foreign oil workers hostage earlier this month. The group has said it will continue with its strategy in order to force the release of Delta politicians. |
Outlook | The attacks will hit investor confidence further, but have not yet affected the price of crude; however, it seems only a matter of time before MEND attacks pipeline infrastructure to disrupt crude supply. |
MEND Bombs Shell and Agip Facilities in Port Harcourt
The militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) set off two bombs in southern Nigeria yesterday (18 December), moments after alerting international news media of their intentions. MEND targeted the facilities of Agip, a unit of Italian firm Eni, and also a Shell compound in the city of Port Harcourt. The explosions created chaotic scenes, but there were no causalities. MEND said the bombs contained a mix of commercial and military grade explosives and were triggered by mobile phone.
The bombings are indicative that MEND has stepped up its campaign ahead of the 2007 presidential election. The explosions could be interpreted as a warning to the future president, especially as the ruling People's Democratic Party announced their candidates for April's poll the day before (see Nigeria: 18 December 2006:Ruling Party Selects Presidential Candidate for 2007 Election). The PDP handed Umaru Yar'Adua the nomination and selected Goodluck Jonathan as his running mate for the vice-presidency.
The Start of a Bombing Campaign?
Yesterday was not the first time that MEND has set off bombs, but the latest incident shows the militant group growing in experience and sophistication. On 29 April, MEND blew up at least five oil tanker trucks in a car bomb attack in Warri. Back then, MEND said that the attack was a “final warning” before it turns its attention to oil workers, storage facilities, offices, and other “soft oil industry targets”. (see Nigeria: 1 May 2006: Militants Attack Fuel Tanks in Nigeria; Chinese Investors Warned Off).
Last month, the U.S. consulate in Lagos warned of the imminent threat of a coordinated attack on oil facilities, including the increased risk to U.S. citizens of further kidnappings in the Niger Delta (see Nigeria: 3 November 2006: U.S. Government Warns of Mass Bombings in the Niger Delta). The report said the "attack may include 10 to 20 simultaneous bombings of land-based targets and a series of separate attacks on oil facilities”. Similarly, on 4 October, a U.S. consulate report suggested that militants wanted to attack Bonny Island. However, no attack materialised. The question raised by the bombings in Port Harcourt yesterday is whether this is the start of a bombing campaign or just another one off incident. MEND has warned of a violent future for the region, including the targeting of oil company vehicles with roadside bombs: a tactic taken from the war in Iraq.
MEND Will Hold Hostages Indefinitely
The day before the attack, MEND stated that its hostages would not be released before Christmas (see Nigeria: 18 December 2006:MEND Will Keep Hostages over Christmas Period). One Lebanese and three Italian oil workers were kidnapped by MEND last month, and it was confirmed last week in a telephone interview that the hostages were in good health (see Nigeria: 13 December: Hostages "Fine" but Still Held by MEND in Nigeria and 8 December 2006: MEND Claims Responsibility for Kidnapping of Italian Oil Workers in Nigeria).
MEND has said it will capture more expatriate oil workers, who it will seek to use as bargaining chips for the release of Mujahid Dokubo Asari the leader of the Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) and deposed Bayelsa State governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha; however, the federal government is extremely unlikely to give in this tactic.
Outlook and Implications
It is clear that MEND has stepped up its campaign; the group is showing how organised and sophisticated it is by being very specific in its targets while communicating widely with international news media. MEND knew that the attacks in Port Harcourt would not affect crude production; instead, it wanted to cause mass confusion in a heavily populated area. The group was due to set off a third bomb, but opted against it to avoid taking "innocent lives".
The bombings are likely to hit investor confidence and in August this year Willbros a U.S. engineering services firm and German construction firm Julius Berger concluded that the commercial and operating risks associated with doing business in Nigeria exceeded acceptable risk levels (see Nigeria: 14 August 2006: Tip of the Iceberg? Companies Start to Exit Nigeria Because of Delta Kidnapping Chaos). It is unlikely that the major oil companies operating in the region will consider leaving Nigeria, but the kidnappings and bombings have caused the security situation to deteriorate further.
MEND has no interest at all in working with the federal government and is not impressed by the nomination of Bayelsa State governor Goodluck Jonathan as the PDP's nominee for vice-president, despite him being a Ijaw politican from the Niger Delta.
It seems that events yesterday went exactly according to plan for MEND, which did not want to cause any casualties. By warning the press about the bombs moments before the explosions, the group are now going to be taken far more seriously. It is only a matter of time before MEND takes another next step: either another bout of kidnapping, more bombing, or sabotaging oil company facilities to disrupt the supply of crude.