Transitional Government Urged to Hold Talks with Islamists as Ethiopia Looks to Exit Somalia

Military Victory

The interim government, which just two weeks ago appeared to be heading towards an imminent demise in the face of a strong military threat from the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), now appears to be in control of all of the Horn of Africa country's territories after capturing the southern city of Kismayo from the Islamists on Monday (1 January 2006) (see Somalia: 2 January 2007: Islamists in Somalia Abandon Last Stronghold as Government Expands Control). Backed by strong military support from neighbouring Ethiopia, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)’s militias, who were struggling to defend their provincial base of Baidoa until Ethiopia's timely military intervention, quickly swept aside the UIC forces, with the military campaign culminating in the symbolic fall of Mogadishu (the capital) last week. This event was followed by the abandonment by the UIC of Kismayo, a strategic port city located some 500 km south of the capital and close to the Kenyan border.

However, with most of the Islamic fighters simply retreating and melting away in the face of the heavy Ethiopian onslaught, the TFG would be best advised to curb its celebration of the UIC's sudden demise. Indeed, most, if not all, of the Courts’ leadership—including Sheik Aweys and Sheik Sharif—are believed to be very much alive, reportedly hiding near the Kenyan border and promising to wage an insurgency war against the TFG and Ethiopia.

Threat of Insurgency War

Fears that such tactics could turn Somalia into another Iraq- or Afghanistan-type insurgency quagmire, which could undermine the wider region, the Kenyan president, Mwai Kibaki, has called on the TFG to hold an urgent dialogue with the UIC and other forces opposed to the interim administration. Speaking during a meeting with President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed of Somalia, Kibaki urged his counterpart to revive the stalled talks with the UIC in an attempt to restore peace and stability in the war-torn country.

Kenya, which shares a long and porous border with Somalia, is rightly concerned about the latest goings-on in its neighbour. Already home to hundreds of thousands of Somalis who have fled there as refugees in the past two decades, Kenya has witnessed an upsurge in people crossing the border in recent weeks as the fighting in Somalia intensified. More worryingly, Kenya is also concerned that some of the UIC's fleeing leaders and combatants will try to cross the border into Kenya by disguising themselves as refugees.

Mission Accomplished?

Whilst the TFG will do well to take heed of Kibaki's message, it also faces the immediate and difficult challenge of trying to pacify and administrate the hostile territories—such as Mogadishu—that it has inherited from the UIC in the past two weeks. This task will become almost impossible if the TFG's chief backer, Ethiopia, carries out its threat to withdraw its troops in matter of days. Having accomplished his government's stated mission of neutralising the “clear and present danger” posed to his country by the UIC far more easily than anyone had predicted, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi announced yesterday that Ethiopian troops could be withdrawn from Somalia as early as within the next two weeks. Speaking during an address to parliament, Meles said his government's troops are now involved in 'mopping up' operations and will be homeward bound as soon as that mission has been accomplished.

Meles' statement has, however, raised fears that without Ethiopian military backing, the TFG is too weak to stabilise and maintain control over its newly gained territories. Indeed, Somalia's prime minister, Ali Mohamed Ghedi, whose administration has failed to exert its presence outside Baidoa during the two years of its existence, confirmed as much when he insisted that Ethiopian troops will remain in Somalia for “months”. Ghedi, whose government enjoys very little popular support and lacks an adequately trained army or police force, has suggested that Ethiopian troops will remain in Somalia at least until the proposed deployment of an international peacekeeping force takes place (see Somalia: 11 December 2006: Interim Government and Islamists Clash in Somalia Following UN Approval of Peacekeeping Mission).

Outlook and Implications

With Ethiopia, whose armed support for the interim government proved crucial in the latter’s success over the UIC, expressing its intention to vacate Somalia in a matter of days, the international community should quickly approve the deployment of a United Nations (UN)-backed regional peacekeeping force to prevent the ruined state from descending still further into anarchy and lawlessness.

At least two countries, namely Uganda and Nigeria, have already agreed to provide troops for the proposed regional African peacekeeping force, but it is believed that neither will be prepared to deploy troops without a clear mandate and exit strategy. The two countries, as well as others considering the commitment troops to the UN and African Union (AU)-backed mission are also fully aware of the entrenched opposition most Somalis hold to the deployment of such a force in their country and are understandably concerned about getting involved in what might be seen by locals as an occupying force.

But, with the TFG in no position to discharge its mandate to govern and pacify the country without outside assistance, most Somalis would no doubt choose the international force rather than Ethiopian troops in their land.