OEMs are increasingly using P-HEV powertrains as the bridging technology between ICE and the next generation of alternative powertrains.
IHS Automotive perspective | |
Significance | One of the main themes of the Geneva Motor Show appears to be a host of production-ready plug-in hybrid models and concepts which illustrates the increasing momentum this technology has. |
Implications | OEMs see plug-in hybrids as the bridging technology to the next generation of alternative powertrain technology that will provide ICE levels of range and utility without any kind of ICE powertrain element. In terms of fuel cell or pure EV vehicles this technology is still a way off being cost-effective and commercially viable so P-HEVs offer the best near-term solution. |
Outlook | The raft of P-HEV models at Geneva co-ordinated with other themes at Geneva such as the new generation of city cars that were launched, plus an emphasis on simplicity and functionality to point towards a new generation of vehicles that will offer advanced powertrain technology with affordability, in packages that appeal naturally to European consumers such a compact SUV and crossover vehicles. |
One of the overriding themes of the Geneva Motor Show was the increasing number of OEMs looking to plug-in hybrid technology to be the bridge between the conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) and next-generation electric vehicle (EV) and fuel-cell technology that will be able to offer the range and utility of current conventional vehicles. The latter technology paradigm is still some way off and while the first generation of EVs on the market have helped to introduce the technology to consumers and are performing a useful role in brand building, they are yet to convince of their viability as money-makers or as vehicles that fit in with the lives of the vast majority of buyers. P-HEV technology offers the best of both worlds in terms of marrying state-of-the-art conventional powertrain technology with the ability to run on electric power for short durations in urban environments. Interestingly, three of the smaller Asian OEMs all came up with similar concepts in the form of P-HEV SUV/crossover vehicles, of which production versions could provide a compelling European market offering. Mitsubishi's XR-PHEV was a Nissan Qashqai-sized concept which previews the company's next-generation ASX crossover, while the company also showed the GC-PHEV, which pointed the way for the Pajero/Shogun replacement. Autocar reported that Mitsubishi may put into production a diesel-electric P-HEV powertrain as part of the powertrain line-up for the production versions of these models. At the same time SsangYong showed its SsangYong XLV concept which featured a diesel electric powertrain (see Switzerland: 4 March 2014: Geneva Motor Show 2014: SsangYong reveals XLV sub-compact crossover concept). The model was slightly longer than the Qashqai and was more pure SUV than crossover, but it still slowed a concept that has a viability and a desirability in the European market in particular. Subaru also showed the Viziv 2 concept, another crossover model. The car measured 4.4m long, and the company says it has been "designed as the ideal vehicle to support urban families with active lifestyles". Again the Viziv 2 was powered by a 1.6-litre turbodiesel direct-injection boxer engine plug-in hybrid powertrain, mated to a CVT automatic transmission (see Switzerland: 5 March 2014: Geneva Motor Show 2014: Subaru shows Viziv 2 concept).
While these models are currently concepts, albeit ones which give a realistic preview of future production models, the Volkswagen (VW) Group is joining the ranks of OEMs with production P-HEVs available on the market. The company showed its forthcoming Golf GTE and A3 E-tron plug-in hybrid at Geneva. The Golf is interesting as it is being marketed as a model with as much sporting credentials as it is focused on energy efficiency. It features as 1.4-litre four-cylinder direct-injection gasoline engine and synchronous electric motor sited within the gearbox housing. In sequence the powertrain generates 201 bhp, along with 258 lb/ft of torque. VW claims a 0-62mph time of 7.6 seconds and 135mph top speed in hybrid mode, while the vehicle still offers the option to run in e-mode via a switch on the centre console, for a claimed zero-emission range of 31 miles at speeds up to 81mph.
Many of the other themes and trends on display at the show have the potential to complement the new generation of P-HEV powertrain production vehicles with lower cost models fitted with conventional powertrain technology. There were signs of a desire to create no-nonsense vehicles with a focus on efficiency and low cost to appeal to a broad base of customers, while still offering quirky style and desirability. Citroën's C4 Cactus was at the most obvious example of this ethos. Commenting on the Cactus IHS Automotive's Director of Long Term Planning and Sustainability Tom De Vleesschauwer said, "EU consumers have adopted a more permanent crisis mind-set and look for value and it also conveniently helps the OEM to reduce vehicle weight/improve efficiency." He was also impressed with the generation of city cars which was launched in Geneva, including the Toyota Aygo, Citroën C1 and Peugeot 108 family, as well as the new Renault Twingo. He added, "The new generation of small(er) cars has never been so good; and the OEM are clearly trying their hardest to 'tempt' consumers into great small city-runners; as it suits the economic climate and helps them achieve lower CO2 averages. While downsizing continues on with the slew of small CUVs on show."
Outlook and implications
With the European market in particular becoming more populated by compacted and sub-compact crossovers and SUV-style vehicles it makes sense that the many OEMs are targeting the segment with the possibility of building production P-HEV models in these segments. There are certainly benefits of SUV and crossover style vehicles in terms of the extra space available in terms of packaging the motors and battery packs that form part of the P-HEV powertrain format, although much of the architecture of these vehicles is derived from conventional passenger car models. However, it will also be about offering this advanced technology at a price point that is attractive and viable for as wide a consumer base as possible. We have seen with early diesel electric hybrids and P-HEV production models that infancy and current lack of scalability means that the current offerings have high prices and these will have to be reduced if the technology to gain traction in Europe and elsewhere. For example the Volvo V60 plug-in hybrid list price is currently just over GBP44,000 in the UK market, even after the UK government's GPB5,000 discount. This is in the region of twice the price of a standard diesel-engined variant of the car, which gives some indication of the challenges of offering the technology as a price level that is viable for a large number of consumers. In the European market, given its breadth of vehicle brands and models, and its position as the region's largest OEM by sales volume, the VW Group has the best access to the economies of scale that will allow P-HEV technology to be offered to consumers at a more affordable price level. Given VW's commitment to P-HEV the company may even look to offer some P-HEV models as loss leaders. Perhaps large, premium SUVs offer the best way for P-HEV technology to get an initial foothold in the market. P-HEV would go a long way to making these kind of cars more socially acceptable and their higher price points mean they are more able to absorb the additional costs of the technology without becoming hugely more expensive than conventional ICE equivalent models, while packaging the powertrain in a larger SUV is also a relatively easier task. BMW is preparing the X5 P-HEV for launch (see Germany: 30 September 2013: BMW confirms production plans for X5 plug-in hybrid) Bentley is also said to be considering a plug-in hybrid version of its new SUV model (see Switzerland: 5 March 2014: Bentley gains 2,000 advance orders for new SUV). Another factor in P-HEV's favour is the technology's increasing link with high performance sports cars, especially through Porsche's use of the technology in both the Panamera plug-in hybrid road car and the new 919 Le Mans racer. IHS's Tom De Vleesschauwer commented that this could be useful in marketing terms. he said, "If they can create some 'aura' around the fact that this is motorsport designed technology; it might catch-on even more with the buying public." So while cost will continue to be a barrier in the near term P-HEV undoubtedly has a big future, especially in terms of reducing overall vehicle fleet emissions. De Vleesschauwer also stated that the role of P-HEVs is vital in terms of OEMs being able to meet the European Union's new 95g/km CO2 target, he added, "The OEMs are getting ready to soon bring out the big-guns; that is turn high-volume profitable cars into plug-in hybrids (A3; Golf; X5). This will bring huge CO2 reductions to their fleet-average simply because they represent their bread-n-butter models; and sell well in the fleet market. Combine these with the then required EVs and thanks to some super-credits that 95g/km target seems suddenly very realistic.