Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | General elections were scheduled for 22 January, but the high level of pre-election violence and the opposition’s decision to boycott the poll had raised domestic and international concerns. |
Implications | As a result, pressure had increased for the elections to be postponed, with observers arguing that fundamental issues needed to be addressed before polls could be held in a free and fair manner. |
Outlook | In many respects, yesterday’s events are not a surprise. Recourse to a state of emergency, although unsavoury in a country that has a history of military rule, was always one possibility. |
Risk Ratings | Given the uncertain outlook in the coming weeks, Global Insight has decided to further downgrade Bangladesh’s political and security ratings to 3.75 and 4.0 respectively, although it is hoped that this will only be a temporary measure. |
State of Emergency Postpones Polls
Ahmed announced on national television last night that he had stepped down as head of the interim administration and would be handing power to one of his advisers, Supreme Court judge Fazlul Haq. Nine of the ten members of the interim administration also stepped down. Although Ahmed retains his position as president, this is largely a figurehead role and he is expected to play no further significant part in politics. Instead, Haq is now tasked with trying to resolve the same issues that brought down Ahmed and his interim administration, with the final aim of organising elections.
The first task is to form a new administration, which will then decide on a new head to replace Haq. Once this is done, the caretaker government can settle down to the tasks in hand. Essentially, it needs to fully address the opposition alliance’s fears surrounding the polls. Although Bangladesh tried to make the holding of general elections fairer by introducing the concept of a caretaker administration that follows the outgoing administration, it has failed spectacularly on this occasion. The opposition has argued that the former ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies were preparing to rig the elections after installing their allies in key posts, including within the Election Commission.
Although the outgoing caretaker government had made some changes to key personnel in an attempt to allay opposition concerns, it has made more demands, notably the reconstitution of the voting lists. The opposition claims that the BNP and its allies created 14 million “ghost” voters to give it a significant electoral advantage. Ahmed’s caretaker administration argued that it did not have the time to address these concerns, pointing to the 90-day period in which it was constitutionally bound to hold elections. It is unclear how long Haq and his team now have, as Bangladesh is now in uncharted constitutional waters. It does, however, have a 120-day period before the state of emergency expires.
The Immediate Effects
Unsurprisingly, the leading party in the opposition alliance, the Awami League (AL), has welcomed the outcome, describing it as a “victory for the people”. To date, the BNP does not appear to have issued any statement. Given that it was broadly held that elections could not have passed successfully, the news will be welcome internationally. Ahead of Ahmed’s decision—and in events that must have contributed to it—the European Union (EU) announced that it was pulling its poll observers out of Bangladesh because there was no chance that the elections would be free and fair, while the UN warned the country that its peacekeeping duties were under threat. As with many developing nations, involvement in UN peacekeeping missions offers a lucrative source of extra funding for the Bangladesh military. As a result, Ahmed risked incurring the wrath of the military if he failed to act.
On the ground, the overnight change is reportedly noticeable. The capital, Dhaka, is functioning normally, following weeks of sporadic unrest and blockades. An indefinite overnight curfew (running from 23.00 to 05.00) has helped counter any security problems, and political tensions are now expected to subside, albeit marginally.
The Pros and Cons of the State of Emergency
It will be a subject of debate whether the president should have declared a state of emergency. It was the most obvious way to postpone polls, which clearly weren’t going to work. Another possibility highlighted in the domestic press was to look to the Supreme Court for a possible change to the Constitution, in order to provide the caretaker government with more than 90 days to try to resolve the political stand-off. The state of emergency however, brings into force a range of provisions which, if handled well, will ensure greater stability on the ground. That said, they could also be abused and dissent has already been voiced over the block on private media outlets from covering the news and over the calls on the media in general not to criticise the government. It is 16 years since Bangladesh last witnessed a state of emergency, but there are fears that if misused it could herald the return of the military to the political sphere.
Outlook and Implications
The short-term outlook remains uncertain, with much depending on how negotiations work out in the coming weeks. This explains why we have decided to instigate another 0.25 downgrade in the risk ratings. What needs to follow now is a period in which the opposition’s sense of trust is regained. The opposition needs to know that its demands are being addressed and from there, it should commit to participating in the elections. If the situation is handled well, it could lead to truly free and fair elections, giving Bangladeshi democracy a much-needed boost. Although Bangladesh is proud of its democratic credentials it has a deeply flawed system, as events in the political sphere regularly highlight. The main parties, notably the BNP and the AL, need to learn to operate within the political system and stop bending rules and situations to their own ends.