Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The resignation of General Halutz and investigations into the role of Prime Minister Olmert during his tenure as former acting finance minister casts a shadow of uncertainty over Israel's military and political leadership. |
Implications | The army chief has been under increasing pressure to consider his position amid military inquiries into the performance and preparedness of the Israeli armed forces during last year's war with Lebanon. Despite pledges of support from Olmert, Halutz has finally decided to fall on his sword, thereby focusing attention squarely on the civilian leadership over its conduct during the war. |
Outlook | With the premier now having to contend with both a top military resignation and renewed criticism over recurring allegations of corruption against himself, the Israeli government may be bracing itself for further political fallouts, indeed resignations, over the long-running military and political affair. Defence Minister Amir Peretz may find himself next on the political martyrs list. |
Military Earthquake
Following a devastating 34-day war with Hizbollah in southern Lebanon last year, the Israeli military and civilian leadership was accused of failing in its responsibilities towards the Jewish state. The charges against the top ranks were certainly not minor. Given that the motive for Israel's attack against Hizbollah was to secure the release of two kidnapped soldiers as well as to destroy the Lebanese movement, the fact the neither of these objectives were fulfilled whilst over 1,000 Lebanese were killed—the vast majority civilians—and Israel lost 116 soldiers during the conflict, as well as 43 civilians, meant senior heads were inevitably expected to roll. The only difficulty was ascertaining the time it would take for the Israeli establishment to recognise its mistakes and which of the top figures would be held responsible for the errors.
Halutz, who was appointed chief of army staff in June 2005, was the first former air force commander to be given the top army role. There was little surprise therefore, when he was accused of relying too heavily on air power during the conflict with Hizbollah, as well as delaying the deployment of ground troops. In the midst of the conflict, Israeli soldiers further complained of inadequate training and equipment. Whilst recognising his own mistakes, Halutz vowed only earlier this month that he would not resign but would learn from the results of a military inquiry into the war. Last night, however, the army chief dropped a political bombshell and submitted his resignation, despite calls from Olmert for Halutz to remain in his post until all the inquiries had been completed. "I have accomplished the objective that was set for me at the end of the Lebanon war, which was to study and learn the lessons from what transpired. I consider under the conditions it is my duty to resign my office immediately", Halutz wrote in his resignation letter to Olmert. The Deputy army chief, Moshe Kaplinsky, was appointed to lead the Israeli military temporarily.
Double Whammy
News of Halutz's resignation came hours after Olmert learnt from the Israeli justice ministry that he would be facing a criminal investigation over his alleged abuse of influence during a brief tenure as acting finance minister under the reign of the former premier, Ariel Sharon. With Olmert's domestic popularity at an all-time low, the corruption probe will do little for his battered credibility (see Israel: 11 January 2007: Premier to Face Possible Corruption Investigation in Israel). The premier was informed of the investigation yesterday afternoon. "The justice ministry confirms that the state prosecutor, Eran Shendar, called on the police to open a criminal investigation into a suspected offence of insider-trading in the sale by the state of its majority holding in Bank Leumi," a justice ministry source told Agence France-Presse (AFP). The probe will look into allegations that Olmert sought to help steer the sale of Bank Leumi toward his Australian friend, Frank Lowey. The premier has denied any wrongdoing and a spokesperson from his office suggested this morning that Olmert was confident that the sale of the bank was completed with the "fullest transparency".
The Israeli media, however, ever determined to lay the boot in, has been speculating on the impact of the Halutz resignation on the remainder of the political leadership. Not far from the media's sights is Defence Minister Amir Peretz, whose own performance during the Lebanon war unearthed as many questions as it answered. The daily Maariv summed up the general media mood this morning with a direct call on Peretz to quit his post: "Now it is Defence Minister Amir Peretz's turn to hand over the keys, so that the IDF [Israel Defence Forces] will be able to embark on a new path", the paper said. "And what about Olmert?” it added. "The public will judge his performance".
Outlook and Implications
The ineffectiveness of the military campaign against Hizbollah was bound to come back and haunt the Israeli leadership. Halutz's decision to resign followed the results of an internal military inquiry but a more substantial state commission is also currently looking into the conduct of the military and civilian establishment during the war, the verdict of which will be announced shortly. With the army chief no longer in the firing line, pressure is bound to increase on Olmert and Peretz to "assume responsibilities" and act in accordance with the commission's findings. With Peretz, in particular, accused of performing ineptly, the defence minister may well be next in line for the official axe. The minister, who is also leader of the coalition Labour party, may find a more comfortable role in some social ministry or other.
For the government itself, the mounting political and military crises bode badly for its future cohesion. Should Peretz be forced to take the rap for the administration's failings, there is a strong likelihood that the Labour support base will demand reciprocal measures against Olmert's Kadima party. Given the Israeli political system's notorious instability, particularly due to its near-total reliance on coalition governments, the current crisis has all the ingredients of tearing apart the ruling administration. The state commission's finding will therefore certainly be one to watch out for.

