Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Russian president has reshuffled the Cabinet, formally equalising the positions of the two major presidential hopefuls, Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov, as first vice-Prime Minister. A series of associated appointments also brought two new officials to the fore. |
Implications | Ivanov left the post of Defence Minister to head national projects for technological and industrial advancement of the country, and Medvedev maintained his responsibility for nationwide social projects. |
Outlook | Although the move is widely seen as creating a level playing field for the two most widely speculated presidential hopefuls, Global Insight believes, however, that another intention of the Russian president was to confuse and baffle the country's bureaucracy, and to remind yet again that he keeps all the decision-making cards on his hands, and to add more intrigue to the presidential succession debate by bringing new faces into the circle of his potential successors. |
On 15 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin reshuffled the Cabinet. He elevated the former Vice-Prime Minister and Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov to the position of First Vice-Prime Minister. This places Ivanov on a par with Dmitry Medvedev, hitherto the only First Vice-Prime Minister, and apparently creates an equal power balance between the two men, who are largely viewed as the main contenders for the presidential post in the 2008 elections.
At first glance, Ivanov and Medvedev seem to have the powers and the opportunities to match. Both are currently on the same high rung of the administrative ladder. Both are chairmen of state-owned behemoths of industry (Ivanov presides over the Unified Aircraft Construction Corporation, uniting all state resources in this strategic developmental industry, while Medvedev heads the board of Gazprom, the Russian energy giant). Both are designated front-men for ambitious nationwide programmes, Ivanov in technological development and Medvedev in the social sphere.
The equalisation of powers between Ivanov and Medvedev is suspiciously straightforward, however, to be the main rationale for the actions of as cunning and clever a politician as Vladimir Putin. A closer look at the practical implications of the Cabinet change, as well as surrounding factors, suggests that Putin has in fact deepened the plot rather than opened the way for its resolution.
First, Sergei Ivanov has exchanged the stout and weighty aura of a defence minister for the vague and nebulous appearance of a high official with no clearly defined powers nor stable apparatus. Admittedly, Ivanov can now shake off the negative associations between himself and the regularly reported atrocities in the Russian army; this comes at the price, however, of much reduced media opportunities, a significant step back for any presidential hopeful. Second, Ivanov has also swapped a substantial bureaucratic team he had created over the years in office, for only six aides in the new post. To compare, Dmitry Medvedev had spent nearly six months creating his new team for the First Vice-PM position, eventually shaping it up to make a whole ministry. The fact that the "old" First Vice-PM Medvedev is substantially more entrenched in the position than his "new" counterpart Ivanov casts serious doubt over the actual equality of these presidential hopefuls in terms of power. Even more intriguing is the fact that the two men have proven to cooperate rather well in the past. In the light of these observations, the principal rationale for the change of the Cabinet might be not the opening of the public competition between two gladiators, but the introduction of new fighters to the arena.
New Faces
The Cabinet reshuffle has brought to the fore two individuals who so far had not been in the public eye. The new Defence Minister, Anatoly Serdiukov, is a former head of the Federal Tax Service, a relatively young career bureaucrat from Putin's native St Petersburg. The new vice-PM for foreign economic relations is the head of governmental apparatus Sergei Narushkin. By retaining his old position, Narushkin concentrates in his hands much of the daily work of the government on the most pertinent problems of the day. The professional career leap of both men in terms of acquired capacities, responsibilities, engagement with the government and the society is thus substantially higher than that which Ivanov sees in his promotion from Vice-PM to First Vice-PM. Given that Putin himself remained in relative obscurity until only a year before the presidential elections in which he came to power, and the logical preference for a successor is one who is personally obliged to him, one should not discount the new appointees as mere replacements and functionaries, but rather keep a watch on them as having the potential for Putin's endorsement.
Outlook and Implications
The Cabinet reshuffle is a clear indication of the increasingly nervous political atmosphere in Russia. Given the dominance of the state in all spheres of economic and social life, and the democratic pretence of its essentially authoritarian government, unpredictability of the 2008 presidential election rests, paradoxically, not with the choice of the voters, but with the choice of the ruling elite, and first and foremost of the current Russian president himself, given his unprecedented popular support and command of the country. For almost a year already, bureaucracy and media alike have been asking Putin to name his preferred successor and thus put an end to intrigue and constant battles between various bureaucratic groupings. Putin point-blank refuses to do so. Although he is obviously interested in nurturing a trusted successor, he is well aware that on the day of the announcement of the preferred candidate, he will become a lame duck, and thus is putting the day off for as long as he can. The recent cabinet reshuffle is yet another clever trick by which Vladimir Putin has sought to baffle the bureaucrats and break up their emerging alliances, to throw new figures into the political arena, and to keep everyone guessing. Clever as his plot is, a true democratic competition for presidency, akin to the one unfolding currently in the United States, is inherently more healthy for the society. Sadly, for Russia in 2008, the presidential election will be merely a choice of one man by one man.