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Same-Day Analysis

Celtel Reports 16.9 mil. African GSM Subscribers

Published: 20 February 2007
Celtel, the subsidiary of Kuwaiti mobile operator MTC, recorded 16.87 million subscribers across its African networks by the end of December 2006 (19.63 million when Sudan is included).

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

The combined MTC/Celtel group operates in 20 countries across Africa and the Middle East, which according to a company press release makes it the fifth-largest mobile operator in the world in terms of geographic footprint, serving markets with a total population of 470 million people.

Implications

Within Sub-Saharan Africa, Celtel is the third-largest mobile operator after MTN and Vodacom. Excluding South Africa, it is the second-largest behind MTN. Under its new growth strategy Celtel is looking to accelerate growth in Africa and for new areas of expansion.

Outlook

During January, the group unveiled an ambitious new growth strategy called ACE (Acceleration, Consolidation, Expansion), which has set the target of achieving market capitalisation of US$30 billion, exceeding 70 million customers, and attaining EBITDA of US$6 billion by 2011.

Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Company (MTC) has announced that its revenues had doubled from US$2.00 billion in 2005 to US$4.18 billion for 2006, and that the group also had record net profits of 305.3 million dinars (US$1.056 billion) in 2006, a 67.9% year-on-year rise, according to its year-end annual financial statements (see Kuwait: 19 February 2007: MTC Kuwait Posts Record 2006 Profits). The majority of growth was stimulated by the increase in the overall customer base from emerging markets, which increased from 14 million subscribers at the end of 2005 in 19 countries, to 27 million at the end of 2006 in 20 countries.

MTC’s subscriber growth has primarily been driven by its African operations through the acquisition of Celtel in 2005. Celtel’s African subscriber base has grown by 8.063 million net new additions since December 2005, driven by the 2006 acquisition of V-Mobile in Nigeria, which recorded 6.396 million subscribers as of 31 December 2006. The fastest-growing markets were in Zambia, which saw an 89% growth to 1.325 million subscribers; Congo-Brazzaville, which saw an 81% growth to 683,000 subscribers; and Malawi, which saw a 79% growth to 357,000 subscribers. The success of MTC’s expansion strategy is continuing to deliver strong financial results, and the operator is now looking at further growth opportunities through acquisitions or the winning of new licences in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in Africa.

MTC/Celtel Subscribers, 2004 – 2006

Middle East

Annual
Growth Rate

Year-End 2006
(thousand)

Q3 2006
(thousand)

Q2 2006
(thousand)

Q1 2006
(thousand)

Year-End 2005
(thousand)

Q3 2005
(thousand)

Q2 2005
(thousand)

Q1 2005
(thousand)

Year-End 2004
(thousand)

Bahrain

35%

233

279

253

228

202

190

165

136

105

Iraq

198%

3,198

2,441

2,082

1,516

1,073

925

574

346

244

Jordan

12%

1,961

2,364

2,168

2,146

2,016

1,732

1,434

1,255

1,139

Kuwait

10%

1,461

1,513

1,515

1,478

1,434

1,394

1,381

1,307

1,262

Lebanon

10%

560

568

532

516

509

501

479

446

441

Sudan

40%

2,754

2,462

2,201

1,951

*

*

*

*

*

Total

49%

10,167

9,626

8,751

7,834

5,235

4,742

4,033

3,491

3,192

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Africa—Celtel

Annual
Growth Rate

Year-End 2006
(thousand)

Q3 2006
(thousand)

Q2 2006
(thousand)

Q1 2006
(thousand)

Year-End 2005
(thousand)

Q3 2005
(thousand)

Q2 2005
(thousand)

Q1 2005
(thousand)

Year-End 2004
(thousand)

Burkina Faso

73%

518

441

383

345

299

238

236

 

 

Chad

57%

348

308

278

244

222

182

155

 

 

Congo 

81%

683

570

462

413

378

304

298

 

 

DRCongo

56%

1,833

1,705

1,444

1,285

1,178

949

948

 

 

Gabon

41%

514

479

435

393

365

288

267

 

 

Kenya

5%

1,939

1,743

2,115

2,013

1,840

1,461

1,464

 

 

Madagascar*

-

331

302

260

228

-

-

-

 

 

Malawi

79%

357

312

285

240

199

151

141

 

 

Niger

37%

397

343

302

265

223

166

147

 

 

Nigeria

-

6,396

5,993

5,535

-

-

-

-

 

 

Sierra Leone

37%

243

202

195

190

178

137

160

 

 

Sudan

-

*

*

*

*

1,962

 

 

 

 

Tanzania

56%

1,517

1,349

1,164

1,067

971

738

703

 

 

Uganda

62%

470

381

334

299

291

233

207

 

 

Zambia

89%

1,325

1,144

965

812

700

530

445

 

 

Total

147%

16,870

15,270

14,157

7,793

8,807

5,375

5,173

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MTC Group Total

98%

27,037

24,897

22,908

15,627

14,402

12,451

9,206

3,491

3,192

Source: MTC.
Note: Figures as adjusted by MTC. As of end of year 2006, the company has retroactively been reporting active customers which have carried out a chargeable event with the company within a 90-day period.  

Outlook and Implications

During January, the MTC/Celtel group outlined a new growth strategy for the five-year period ending 2011 through which MTC would become one of the top 10 operators in the world by market capitalisation. Called ACE (Acceleration, Consolidation, Expansion), this strategy has set the target of achieving market capitalisation of US$30 billion, exceeding 70 million customers, and attaining EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) of US$6 billion by 2011. "Integrating all of our operations will yield more benefits and better results in the future," said the MTC deputy chairman, Dr. Saad al-Barrak. "The transformation of MTC into a global company will come as a result of disciplined execution of vision and the achievement of ambitious objectives. To this end, at the beginning of 2007, MTC launched ACE—an implementation strategy to realise the target of the 3x3x3 vision. ACE seeks to extract superior value from existing assets through three main thrusts: accelerating the growth in Africa, consolidating the existing assets, and expanding into adjacent markets."

Celtel is the third-largest mobile operator in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of subscribers after MTN and Vodacom. Discounting South Africa, where Celtel does not compete, it is the second-largest operator by a very slim margin. MTN reported 20.3 million African subscribers (excluding South Africa) by 30 September 2006, whereas Celtel had 19.634 (if Sudan were included) by 31 December 2006.

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