Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | President Roh Moo-hyun’s resignation is a bid to deter the ongoing collapse of his Uri Party and give it new momentum in the run-up to the December presidential elections after it announced its disbandment last month. |
Implications | While enabling Uri to dissociate itself from the unpopular president and his policies, thereby boosting its position, the move also compounds Roh’s position as a lame-duck president for the remainder of his term. |
Outlook | Although Roh’s resignation may aid Uri in deflecting criticism, it is still faced with the prospect of creating a cohesive party and fielding a convincing candidate for the elections with the opposition Grand National Party retaining a firm lead. |
Roh Bids Uri Farewell
Yesterday evening President Roh Moo-Hyun announced his resignation from his ruling Uri Party in a bid to boost the chances of the disintegrating party in the upcoming December presidential elections. At a meeting with Uri leaders at the presidential office, or Cheong Wa Dae, Roh announced his decision to leave the party he founded in 2003 in a bid to “help eliminate intra-party conflict”, according to his spokesman Yoon Seung-yong. Roh’s resignation from the ruling party has been amicable and does not alter his status as South Korea’s president, leaving him in office for the remaining one year of his term. Roh refrained from announcing when his decision will take effect, but his departure is expected to take place in early March. Roh further lamented having “been forced to defect from the ruling party” in his final year of office, thereby failing to “overcome the structural problem of the nation’s political community”. Roh’s three predecessors resigned in similar fashion from the governing party in their final year of office, reflecting the inherently volatile and immature state of South Korea’s party politics that remain centred on personalities and regional loyalties. Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook offered her resignation at the same time, while maintaining that she would remain in office until the extraordinary session of the National Assembly comes to an end on 6 March. South Korea’s first female prime minister is believed to harbour intentions of running for Uri at the upcoming presidential elections.
A Move to End Uri’s Long-Term Slump
Roh’s resignation has been expected since the Uri Party announced its disbandment last month in favour of creating a new party. The move is an effort to boost its weak position vis-à-vis the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) in the lead-up to the December presidential election (see South Korea: 19 January 2007: Ruling Uri Party Disbands Ahead of South Korea’s Presidential Election). The decision to establish a new party by pro-reform forces within the party was based on an internal consensus that Uri had no chance of winning the upcoming elections under the current political circumstances. Roh’s popularity has continued to plummet over the implication of his top officials in various scandals, his failure to address housing issues, and economic reform. Meanwhile his support for a free-trade agreement with the United States has alienated left-leaning supporters, while his engagement policies vis-à-vis North Korea and undermining of the country’s security alliance with the United States has angered conservatives, leaving him generally with single-digit support ratings in the polls. The Uri party has, since the announcement of its disbandment, been bogged down in infighting. A total of 31 lawmakers have defected since then, reducing it to the second-largest party in the National Assembly. This has left the popular GNP as the largest political bloc in the National Assembly. The conservative opposition party is expressing its fierce opposition to Roh’s move, holding that the president and the party should take “indefinite responsibility for his policies”, according to GNP Chairman Kang Jae-sup, cited by the Chosun Ilbo.
Outlook and Implications
Roh’s resignation serves to compound his position as a lame-duck president for the remainder of his time in office. He is now expected to bring politically neutral figures into a new Cabinet to push through his controversial constitutional reform allowing future presidents to serve two consecutive terms. Any new Cabinet would also be expected to deal with various outstanding bills in the areas of real estate, judicial reform and pensions. However, his exit from the ruling party is a bid to halt the ongoing collapse of the party that he founded and give it new momentum in the run-up to the elections. As such, it will enable Uri to dissociate itself from the unpopular president and his policies, thereby boosting not only its position in the run-up to the elections, but also its chances to join forces with other parties—notably the Democratic Party—to challenge the GNP. Roh’s move is expected to aid in deflecting criticism over the policy failures of the ruling party on to the GNP, as it has now become the largest party in the National Assembly. With Uri’s current presidential candidates having scored low approval ratings of merely one to five per cent in the polls, this is a welcome move. The party is, however, still looking to field a convincing bidder for the presidency, but speculation that Prime Minister Han may pursue this could go some way towards shoring up a higher degree of support for Uri. However, the GNP remains way ahead, with its top presidential candidates Lee Myung-bak and Park Geung-hye generally scoring ratings of 40% and 20%, respectively, in the polls.
While it remains to be seen to what extent the Uri Party will actually succeed in dissociating itself from the policies of Roh, the lifting of the burden that he has become is also likely to play into the reconfiguration of the party ahead of the elections—a process that intensified with the announcement of its disbandment last month. This has seen the emergence of two factions from within the party, one comprised of reformers and another of Roh loyalists. The former has pushed for the establishment of a new party, while the latter has sought to keep what remains of the party unified. Roh’s resignation has heightened concerns within the breakaway group that Uri may in fact gain the upper hand in its efforts to form a new party.
The GNP remains in a strong position ahead of the upcoming elections. However, recent weeks have seen significant divisions emerge, as presidential hopeful Park Geun-hye has faced allegations of being involved in recent attacks on her rival, former Seoul mayor Lee Myung-bak. Intra-party rivalry has intensified in recent weeks between the two frontrunners after Park's former legal adviser, Chung In-bong, threatened to uncover alleged “ethical wrongdoings” by Lee. The internal feud has led to speculation that one of the presidential candidates may decide to run independently in the elections. Such a move would serve to split the conservative vote, which would set the stage for Uri to become a contender. Nevertheless, such a scenario currently seems unlikely in the light of the fractured state of the party.