Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Congress of Chechnya has endorsed President Putin's nomination of the presidency of the province, Ramzan Kadyrov. |
Implications | Kadyrov's unlikely favour with both the Russian president and his fellow countrymen derives from solid local grounding and commitment to Chechnya's development. |
Outlook | Kadyrov's appointment formalises his effective leadership in Chechnya and will bring security in the short to medium-term. Kadyrov needs a forward-looking strategy for economic development, and may further clash with Moscow in future. |
Over the 15 years since the end of the Soviet Union, Chechnya has seen a string of official and unofficial leaders, who have made a powerful yet fleeting impact on the provinces' fortunes. Yet the man who has become President of Chechnya today, Ramzan Kadyrov, is highly likely to stay—mostly because he has put his stake on stability rather than independence.
War Background
Chechnya has been a major thorn in the side of the Russian Federation's development nearly since its inception. In 1992, the one-million strong province in the Caucasus declared independence and effectively rid itself of any form of Federal control. Chechen leaders appropriated local and Western Siberian oil in its refineries to export it without taxes, and rendered the province an unruly haven for illegal trafficking and shadowy financial deals. Russia's attempts to bring Chechnya under control during the 1994-1996 military campaign cost some 50,000 civilian and 6,000 military lives and did little to restore Russian authority in the province, winning it instead a "martyr for freedom" image in the international arena and demoralising the Russian population. Four years of uncertain and evasive development ensued. After the spilling over of Chechen paramilitary actions into southern regions in Russia and a series of controversial apartment block explosions in mainland Russia, the then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin initiated a second military campaign in Chechnya that left no stone unturned, winning Putin himself an overall popular endorsement as Russian President in 2000. A Chechen clan leader installed as the province's President, Akhmad Kadyrov, was killed in a bomb explosion in May 2004, but against the expectations, his 28-year old son Ramzan swiftly picked up the reins, becoming Chechnya's Prime Minister. Now having reached the age of 30, the youngest age for a presidential candidate, Ramzan Kadyrov picks up his much desired prize of the Chechen presidency today.
Kadyrov: the Only Powerful and Committed Local
Ramzan Kadyrov's position as the Chechen leader rests on three principal pillars. One, he is a genuine leader of the erstwhile rebels, unlike many of Moscow's previous appointees, who despite Chechen ethnic origin, had little actual grounding with the local elites. A heir to a powerful clan, Kadyrov managed to subdue other competing clans on his own after his father's death, using a combination of cunning and force. Russia's own military campaign against Chechen leaders has played into his hands, physically eliminating some prominent competitors for the local leadership. Apart from elite support, Kadyrov appears to enjoy genuine popularity within the Chechen population. He maintains the image of a simple person, working hard for the people's sake.
Kadyrov's populist approach and rough, bordering on thuggish, ways may be controversial, but his commitment to Chechnya's restoration is doubtless. At present, the capital Grozny is seeing the construction of 24,000 flats in 712 buildings, compared to the 2002 figure of 1,000 in 22 houses. Kadyrov is known to visit and control construction sites in person day and night. He has managed to gain substantial resources comparable to the size of Federal financing, from the Chechen Diaspora and local sources to channel them into reconstruction.
The combination of local grounding with commitment to economic development makes Kadyrov acceptable not only to the Chechen population, but also to Moscow.
Chechnya and Moscow: Peace for a Change
Unlike any of his predecessors, Ramzan Kadyrov has put stability ahead of independence on Chechen agenda. He dropped the principal demand for Chechnya's independence or specially regulated autonomy that has soured relations with Moscow since 1991. This may be a wise pragmatic decision in the circumstances when the republic is devastated by wars and is in bad need of development. Kadyrov will benefit from Moscow's financial support, but also from a simple guarantee that there will be no more shattering military actions in future. Such stability is essential as assurance of investment. Moscow, in turn, pledged to withdraw its army forces from the province, but will maintain a police unit beyond Kadyrov's control just to be sure. Overall, it sees Kadyrov as an acceptable face for the Chechen leadership.
Outlook and Implications
The current improvement of Russia-Chechnya relations is a win-win situation for both sides, improving stability and security in the country. Despite this, Global Insight still sees challenges ahead. Chechnya remains one of the poorest Russian provinces, with unemployment figures reaching 53% officially and up to 70% according to unofficial estimates. Kadyrov has pledged to finish the restoration of the capital Grozny in two to three years. Most investment will logically go into the construction industry, but this only boosts unskilled employment in the short and medium term. Both industries and the labour force will need more sophistication in future. Oil issues are on the back burner at present, but are sure to resurface as Chechnya's budget currently receives under 5% of the income of Russian miner Rosneft. Finally, Kadyrov is impressively young, and has the time and capacities to develop his managerial and leadership ambitions, which are highly likely to let him conduct tougher talks with Kremlin in future. At present, however, the Russian government has blocked the main political, security and moral haemorrhage in the country, promising security to the country in the coming years.