Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Until just a couple of days ago, polls and pundits alike were predicting a second-round run-off between the centre-right’s Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist Party’s Ségolène Royal in the upcoming presidential elections. Now, however, far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen has been well and truly displaced by the centrist François Bayrou as the “third man”, who in the latest poll lags Royal by just one point. |
Implications | Pre-election polls in France admittedly do not often provide a true picture of the final result, and in the past have proved well off the mark. Nonetheless, Bayrou has fast emerged as a credible alternative to the traditional contenders, offering a liberal economic mindset and a balanced approach to social inclusion, which is appealing to the electorate. |
Outlook | It is still unlikely that Bayrou will be able to amass enough votes to make it through to the second round, to be held in May. If he were to manage this, however, his chances of being elected president would shoot up. |
France’s “Third Man”
Veteran politician François Bayrou of the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) has inched to within one point of Socialist Party (PS) rival Ségolène Royal in the latest pre-presidential election opinion poll. His improved ratings are not that surprising, as Bayrou has seen his stock rise to inestimable heights in recent weeks, but until just a few days ago nobody was talking about him actually pipping Royal or the centre-right front-runner Nicolas Sarkozy to enter the second round of the contest. Now, not only is such a scenario deemed possible, but Bayrou is even being touted as a credible contender for the top post, as he offers an increasingly attractive alternative to the two front-runners in the minds of the electorate.
The last presidential election, held in 2002, resulted in a political “earthquake” after far-right National Front (FN) leader Jean-Marie Le Pen made it through to the second round, where he faced incumbent Jacques Chirac, after which the final result was a foregone conclusion. This year, it appears that the savvy campaign and honest image projected by Bayrou has well and truly installed him as France’s “third man”. Bayrou is projected to take 24% of first-round votes in a CSA survey for Le Parisien newspaper today—just one percentage point behind Royal and two points behind Sarkozy.
Who is François Bayrou, and What Does He Propose for France?
Although recognised as a talented politician, Bayrou has never really enjoyed broad appeal among the French electorate. At the 2002 elections, he obtained just under 7% of the vote. Hailing from a small village in the French Pyrenees, Bayrou spends most of his time outside Paris rearing horses and running his own farm, a fact that endears him to the small but influential rural community. He became leader of the UDF in 1998, after serving for four years as education minister in centre-right coalition governments. In the last year, he has sought to distance himself from the unpopular reforms of the current centre-right government. Deputies from his party have been urged to abstain from important votes on the state budget and labour market reforms spearheaded by the ruling Union for the People’s Movement (UMP), a traditional ally of the centrist UDF.
In his presidential programme, however, Bayrou has sought to balance the social concerns of the electorate while at the same time promoting the need for economic reform and closer integration with the European Union (EU). Bayrou wants to control public expenditure, and reduce social charges to encourage job creation. He is in favour of reform of the country's political institutions and an overhaul of the education system, which as a former education minister he considers a personal priority. Fiercely protective of the independence of his party, which has traditionally allied itself with the centre-right rather than the left, Bayrou won over many disgruntled voters by siding with the opposition Socialist Party in a confidence vote against Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin in 2006. If elected, he has promised to form a left-right “government of unity”, with mounting speculation that the post of prime minister would be handed to the economic liberal and former finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, of the PS.
The Trouble with a Sarko-Ségo Duel
Undeniably, the campaign teams of Sarkozy and Royal will be anxious over these latest developments. Sarkozy remains the favourite to beat Royal in the second round, but with the race wide open many believe that should Bayrou proceed to the second round against Sarkozy, he would succeed in amassing the votes of the broader centre-ground and left-wing voters. The response from the Sarkozy camp has been rapid: it is accusing Bayrou of being less than ambitious in his proposals. Finance Minister Thierry Breton has labelled Bayrou’s economic reform plans ineffectual, and lacking clarity. This morning, the team unveiled what it believes is Sarkozy’s trump card to lure the centrist and pro-Europe vote: it was duly confirmed that the well-respected former UDF minister and Holocaust survivor Simone Veil will head Sarkozy's campaign support committee. Veil, who has also held the position of European Parliament president, is due to confirm her appointment later today.
For Royal, the initial euphoria that followed her nomination as the official PS candidate has been dampened of late by her falling ratings in the polls. An archaic campaign platform, the inclusion of members of the party’s “old guard” in her team, and recent diplomatic gaffes on visits abroad, have seen Royal ridiculed in the national and international press. Furthermore, her proposals do not hold broad appeal, with a strong emphasis on outdated socialist values that will do little to resolve France’s unemployment and economic difficulties. Royal certainly has more reason to fear Bayrou in the first round; her team has voiced suspicion regarding Bayrou’s promises for a unity government, stressing that in the past the UDF has always chosen to align itself with the centre-right rather than the left.
Outlook and Implications
Opinion polls are not the most accurate indicators of French election results, and no politician can afford to become complacent based solely on strong approval ratings. Although Bayrou has seemingly displaced Le Pen from third spot, the latter cannot be discounted either, leaving the first round wide open, and the result far from a foregone conclusion.
At this stage, Sarkozy remains the candidate with the clearest proposals on the economy and foreign policy. However, he is far from being a catch-all candidate for the French public, which considers his policy proposals on immigration and social exclusion to be more in tune with the far-right. As for Royal, her decision to bring back “old-school” stalwarts such as former prime ministers Lionel Jospin and Laurent Fabius into her campaign team represents a missed opportunity to revitalise the party with fresh faces and fresh ideas. She has opted to go with the tried and tested, and runs the risk of a major setback as a result. The PS remains divided on key issues such as Europe, and Royal has this week seen her common law partnership with party leader François Hollande ridiculed in the press over the avoidance of tax on a villa in the south of France.
Amid the controversy, Bayrou is attempting to shine through in the battle for hearts and minds. By projecting a clean and honest image of a man attuned to the “real” France, it appears that Bayrou’s strategy is reaping rewards. What remains to be seen, however, is whether the French public is ready to move away from the traditional bipartisanship that has long marked the country’s political system towards a unified left-right government under a centrist president. For now, however, the prospect of the closest first-round election in years should be relished.