Election 2007: Ruling Party Candidate Expected to Triumph in Nigeria's Presidential Polls

Nigeria is preparing to stage its hotly anticipated presidential election tomorrow, in what will mark the first time in the country's history that power is handed over from one democratically elected leader to another. Nigeria has been host to a series of coups and military takeovers. Outgoing president Olusegun Obasanjo ended almost 16 years of military rule when he was voted into office in 1999. Now, with his two-term mandate coming to an end—after his attempt to extend his tenure for another term failed—Obasanjo is to exit the helm of Nigeria's political scene and hand power over to the electorate's selected candidate—at least in theory. Much can be said of Obasanjo's support for the ruling party candidate, Umaru Yar'Adua, who could very well be a stooge to enable Obasanjo to massage power and influence from the sidelines. The other contenders for the top spot may have the charisma and flair that Yar'Adua lacks, but they certainly do not boast the support of the incumbent and his powerful coterie. The election campaign has so far been riddled with inconsistencies, with voter-registration cards not having been disseminated to all eligible voters, presidential aspirant Atiku Abubakar having been marginalised from the election process until this week (see Nigeria: 17 April 2007: Election 2007: Political Quagmire Thickens in Nigeria as Vice-President Enters Race at Eleventh Hour), and with the two leading opposition parties rejecting the idea of forming a united block against the ruling party at the last minute. Last weekend's gubernatorial vote did not pass off smoothly—reports of vote-rigging, ballot-box stuffing, intimidation, and violence leading to several deaths (see Nigeria: 16 April 2007: Election 2007: Partial Results Put Ruling Party in Lead in Nigeria's Violence-Marred Polls) have created a sense of foreboding ahead of tomorrow's polls. Security forces will be on high alert and election observers will be out in droves, although the commonwealth observer mission will avoid the Niger Delta because of security fears.

Key Contenders

Umaru Yar'Adua, People's Democratic Party (PDP): Umaru Yar'Adua is touted as the favourite to win the presidential polls, not least of all by virtue of his strong links to the outgoing president. Yar'Adua's late elder brother, Shehu Yar'Adua, was a close confidant of Obasanjo, serving as his deputy during Obasanjo's military rule between 1976 and 1979. The pair was later imprisoned for allegedly masterminding a plot to overthrow former ruler General Sani Abacha; Shehu passed away in prison. Obasanjo's backing of Umaru Yar'Adua is seen as an extension of the incumbent's level of loyalty towards Shehu. Yar'Adua hails from a family of politicians—his father was also well-known in Nigerian politics, having served as a minister in the first government after independence. A chemistry teacher by trade, Yar'Adua became the governor of Katsina State in 1999 and is one of the few serving governors who has not come under investigation by the anti-graft watchdog, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. As governor, Yar'Adua has been lauded for his shrewd management and the improvements made to his state, and he is known for his humility. A northern Muslim, Yar'Adua is teaming up with his southern Christian running mate, Goodluck Jonathan, which may provide a strategic advantage, appealing to northerners, Muslims, Christians and southerners. Yar'Adua's election campaign was interrupted in March when he was whisked off to a hospital in Germany for a suspected kidney complaint, fuelling speculation that he may not be fit enough to lead the country (see Nigeria: 7 March 2007: Election 2007: Nigeria's Ruling Party Frontrunner Taken Ill), a claim he vehemently refutes.

Muhamadu Buhari, All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP): Muhamadu Buhari was military ruler of Nigeria between 1983 and 1985, and is now the flagbearer for the leading opposition party, the ANPP. Up until two days ago, it was unclear whether Buhari would stand in the election, because his party had formed part of a loose alliance threatening to boycott the polls in protest of the way in which the gubernatorial vote had been conducted last weekend (see Nigeria: 18 April 2007: Election 2007: Opposition Parties Threaten to Boycott Nigeria's Presidential Polls). However, ANPP chairman Edwin Ume-Ezeoke, who is also Buhari's running mate, told the BBC that the party is resolved to contest in the polls to avoid any chance of "unconsciously [becoming] tools in the hands of the PDP-led government in their tenure elongation programme". Although he lost to Obasanjo in the 2003 election, Buhari appears undeterred in his quest to be an elected head of state. Like his PDP rival, Buhari also hails from Katsina State and enjoys some northern support; Christians, however, are likely to be concerned about his staunch Muslim views. Furthermore, his disciplinarian style that manifested during his two-year rule will not be forgotten by the older voter population, which may work against him. Buhari could potentially have been a strong challenger to the media-shy Yar'Adua, particularly if his party had followed through the idea of forming an alliance with another opposition party, the Action Congress, but now, his party's disorganisation will likely be detrimental to his cause.

Atiku Abubakar, Action Congress (AC): Vice-President Atiku Abubakar is running on the platform of the AC. This small opposition party, which recently won the state of Lagos in the gubernatorial polls, became the embattled vice-president's launch-pad following his split from the ruling PDP, amid the acrimonious relationship between him and Obasanjo and the latter's inner circle. Abubakar, a Fulani Muslim and a founding member of the PDP, has been dragged through the courts and has come up against repeated opposition from the PDP, ostensibly because of his involvement in the diversion of public funds into his personal accounts, a charge which Abubakar fervently denies. More plausibly, the marginalisation of Abubakar from the PDP has more to do with the sour relationship between him and the incumbent ever since Abubakar opposed Obasanjo's third-term bid. It is because of this bitter feud between Abubakar and the ruling party that his inclusion in the electoral race came at the last minute. Following the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)'s decision to exclude him from the ballot list, because of pending corruption allegations levelled against him, Abubakar went to the High Court of Abuja and later the Supreme Court, which delivered on Monday (16 April) its verdict overturning the INEC's disqualification of Abubakar. Despite approval from Abubakar supporters, his late inclusion could be a case of too little too late, which is why Abubakar was keen to stage a boycott of this Saturday's polls—to give him time to drum up support. However, in truth, the flashy Abubakar is not without slurs, with his reputation being tarnished by his impressive personal wealth, which he claims was accrued by hard work and legitimate means. Abubakar has now decided to run in the polls but one should expect him to pursue legal action in the likely event of a Yar'Adua win: he told the BBC "you have to participate to challenge the wrongdoings in the courts."

Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA): Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, 73, a reformed warlord, is best known for leading the unsuccessful attempt to secede the Igbo-dominated south-eastern part of Nigeria during the bloody Biafran war, in which more than 1 million people died during 1967-70. Ojukwu is a strong figure among his native Igbo people but his pool of influence does not extend beyond this. He is running on the APGA ticket. He lost dismally in the 2003 presidential election, and his age will not help him in his quest to become leader.

Outlook and Implications

The presidential election in Nigeria will draw a great deal of media interest domestically and internationally, as the continent's most populous nation prepares to usher in a leader in the first democratic transition since independence in 1960. The PDP candidate, Umaru Yar'Adua, will likely triumph and, with last weekend's gubernatorial polls serving as a useful guide, the expectation is that there will likely be voter irregularities. A plethora of legal challenges after the election from disgruntled and defeated presidential challengers can be expected, with the PDP likely to be intent on bringing Yar'Adua home and dry. The way ahead for the leader shows colossal challenges, not least of all the resolution of the Niger Delta crisis, which threatens peace and security in the region.