Election 2013: Kuwaiti parliament more broad-based but repeated deadlocks likely

Kuwait's latest parliamentary election is unlikely to presage a major improvement in political stability. Although the position of Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Sabah remains secure, public opprobrium towards government and the National Assembly (parliament) remains strong. Kuwait's elections on 27 July were the third since February 2012, underlining the political instability that continues to stall economic reforms and infrastructure projects in the country. The past two elections were annulled by Kuwait's Constitutional Court over technical irregularities.

Kuwait's Shia Muslim candidates experienced the biggest swing in voting, falling from a record-high 17 MPs to eight members of the 50-person assembly. Shias compose approximately 30% of Kuwait's population and their falling share of the vote was due to the return of voters who previously upheld the boycott. The return of liberal voters propelled three of their candidates to victory, with candidates from the National Democratic Alliance – which boycotted the previous election – enjoying success.

The most notable results occurred in the largely tribal fourth and fifth constituencies. While members of the Awazem tribe won four seats, the Mutairi and Rasheedi tribes only claimed two each, and the Ajman tribe won just a single seat. Smaller tribes such as the Enezi and Kandaris succeeded in picking up a number of seats that the larger tribes would have traditionally held. Tribal candidates won 24 seats in total, however, the failings of the traditionally stronger tribes indicates dissatisfaction within the tribal population at their interactions with their political performance.

The information ministry put voter turnout at 52.5%, above the record-low 40.3% recorded in the December 2012 polls. In December, voters heeded opposition calls for a boycott of the vote in protest over the emir's October 2012 amendments to Kuwait's electoral regulations. However, divisions within the loose-knit opposition – a broad-base including liberals, tribal figures and Islamists – have subsequently widened and some opposition candidates ran in the election. The influential Ajman, Awazem, Mutairi and Rasheedi tribes all called for participation. Moreover, the opposition's inability to win concessions from the government contributed to some previous supporters ignoring their calls to boycott the vote.

The new parliament's first session will be on 6 August, where a speaker of parliament will be elected. With the Eid al-Fitr holidays beginning on 8 August, MPs will then enter summer recess, returning in late October. The government resigned yesterday (28 July) in line with the constitution. Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Hamad al-Sabah will likely be reappointed prime minister and must appoint a new government, containing at least one MP, by parliament's first session.

Prospects for reform

Political instability stemming from inherent structural defects in Kuwait's political system has stymied economic development in the country, stalling infrastructure projects, significant new oil and gas projects and legislative reforms. Frequent elections, the resignation of governments, corruption probes into major infrastructure projects, and the frequent interpolation of government ministers at the hands of an active if ineffective parliament have contributed to Kuwait's failure to reform its weak regulatory framework and fully realise the potential of its oil reserves, with targets previously pushed back for both new production capacity (4 million barrels per day now targeted for 2020) and the fourth refinery project. Meanwhile, long overdue efforts to boost gas capacity for domestic use (and reduce fuel use costs) have also come under scrutiny as part of the probe into the 2010 Jurassic gas field agreement with Shell, which was the subject of investigation by the previous parliament.

Political turbulence is due to two main factors: the inherently adversarial nature of relations between the government and parliament – whose main power is its ability to challenge ministers – and infighting between members of the royal family, which is frequently played out through proxies within parliament.

The emir's attempts to improve political stability – dismissing former prime minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah in 2011, holding fresh parliamentary elections and amending the electoral regulations – have proven unsuccessful, and the latest polls are unlikely to significantly improve the situation. Although the return of opposition MPs including liberals and moderate Sunni Muslims means parliament is more broad-based and less overtly pro-government than the previous body, while the higher turnout also bestows it greater popular legitimacy, the election of a new parliament does not resolve the deficiencies that led to the collapse of its predecessors.

The frequency of elections in Kuwait means that MPs must always be ready to contest an election. They therefore seek to demonstrate their independence from government by challenging ministers and pushing through populist measures – such as public sector wage rises and citizens' debt relief – at the expense of necessary economic reforms (see Kuwait: 18 March 2013: Kuwait moves towards debt write-off agreement for citizens). The economy is overly dependent on oil revenues and in June 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that these would be exceeded by government expenditure by 2017 if reforms are not implemented, a problem that will be exacerbated by populist measures. Underlining the risk of further elections in the near future, former Shia MP Abdulhameed Dashti, who unsuccessfully contested the first constituency, has already stated that he will file petitions against the election to the Constitutional Court.

Intrigue between senior figures within the royal family also remains unresolved. Royal factions are seeking to position their preferred candidates so that they can succeed Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf bin-Ahmad al-Sabah as first in line to the throne after he eventually succeeds the current emir. Pro-government MPs, who have been aligned with Sheikh Nasser, challenged the previous government on a number of occasions, attempting to undermine the prime minister. Some of these MPs won re-election on 27 July.

Outlook and implications

Previously strong opposition groupings such as the Muslim Brotherhood-aligned Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM) remain exiled from the political framework as a result of their boycott. While they will seek to pressure the government through a variety of means, such as organising protest rallies, they have been unable to maintain the momentum they achieved in late-2012 and their influence will continue to wane. Nevertheless, this is unlikely to improve the political turbulence in Kuwait and there is a risk of further interpolations of government ministers and corruption probes into major construction projects. Parliamentary objections led to the cancelling in 2008 of a joint venture with Dow Chemical Company, igniting a penalty clause which forced Kuwait to pay USD2 billion in compensation. The majority pro-government December 2012 parliament launched such probes into two high profile projects: the Subiya Causeway and the Az Zour North Independent Water and Power Project (IWPP). An indicator that the government is seeking to adopt a more conciliatory approach towards parliament would be if more than the constitutionally-mandated one MP is given a cabinet position, potentially paving the way for co-operation.