Election 2007: New President Elected in France on Reform Promise

Victory at Last – Sarkozy Savours France’s Top Prize

Nicolas Sarkozy was yesterday proclaimed the new president of France, following a gruelling second-round run-off campaign against his Socialist rival, Ségolène Royal. The centre-right candidate, hailing from the ruling Union for a People’s Movement (UMP) party, Sarkozy was consistently the favourite to win the presidency throughout the campaign, fighting off both professional and personal challenges in his way (see France: 4 May 2007: Election 2007: Centre-Right Business-Friendly Candidate Favourite to Win French Presidency). Yesterday, his victory was emphatic and unambiguous, with 53% of voters entrusting him with the presidency for the next five years, against Royal’s 47%. Turnout, as in the first round, was high, at 85%, the highest recorded since 1981. This figure, more than any other, will remain the decisive winner of these elections, with public interest in politics, and in a new generation of political leaders in the country, at its highest for decades. Other results show that the majority of centrist voters, who voted for François Bayrou of the Union for French Democracy (UDF) in the first round, voted for Sarkozy in the second, broadening the right’s appeal.

Following the announcement of the results, Royal was first on the podium to cede victory to her challenger. Poised and unnerved, Royal rallied her disappointed supporters, who had gathered at the PS headquarters in the capital, Paris. The mood was understandably different at the UMP headquarters not far away, where over 2,500 supporters packed the hall to hear Sarkozy’s victory address. Charming and emotional, Sarkozy’s first words were for those who voted for Royal, incessantly repeating that he would work for the whole nation. In an emotive address, Sarkozy declared, “I will be president of all the French. I will speak for all of them.”

This message was clearly not heard by the thousands of anti-Sarkozy protesters who were prepared to do battle as soon as the results were announced in many major cities. Anti-riot police were forced to use tear gas and water cannons to disperse perpetrators of the violent incidents, in which hundreds of cars were set alight and property was damaged. Several police officers and civilians suffered minor injuries, and many rioters were arrested. This was insufficient, however, to take away anything away from Sarkozy’s victory as the ensemble of the political class recognised the strength of the win and congratulatory messages from leaders and dignitaries from around the world poured in throughout the night.

Outlook and Implications

Right Cements, Left Laments

There is now little doubt over the superiority of the centre-right as a political force in France, cemented by yesterday’s victory, which was always the most likely result. Although there have been few reforms of note carried out by the UMP government under the presidency of Jacques Chirac, and, indeed, many would go so far as to say the government has been a failure, the party’s absolute majority in parliament was consistently unchallenged by a weak and disunited opposition, for whom yesterday’s defeat may well signal the final nail in the coffin for some members of the PS. During the last five years, the centre-right has inevitably suffered from Chirac’s ailing leadership, but the emergence of the likes of Nicolas Sarkozy, who was one of the most popular ministers in government, and Jean-Louis Borloo, who, as the current labour minister, is touted as a potential prime minister in the next government, has lent a new authority and credibility to the UMP. A youthful and ambitious team could show itself strong in the face of resistance to reform, not least from the France’s notorious “social partners”, or trade unions. Not so for the lamentable performers of the Socialist Party. Royal’s campaign certainly lacked clarity, and her electoral platform was vague in its own right, but more seriously for her prospects, she did not have a united left to back her and was forced to rely on ageing “elephants”, or socialist stalwarts of a bygone era, who the French had already firmly rejected five years ago. Characters such as former premiers Lionel Jospin and Laurent Fabius were decidedly absent from her side yesterday, and the man likely to be named prime minister under a socialist government, former finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, could scarcely hide his disappointment following the results. Long seen as an isolated free-market liberal within the PS, Strauss-Kahn called for a much-needed renewal of the left in France and did not deny the possibility of a split from the PS, or the formation of a new social-democrat force in the country. A period of intense soul-searching and recovery will now be under way, hopefully in time for the legislative elections coming up in June, in which the left could field joint candidates in a bid to reduce the UMP’s hegemony on the political scene.

A new Political Dawn?

The 2007 presidential election has managed to achieve what political leaders in France have strived to achieve for years: an impressive and admirable mobilisation of the public interest in national politics. For the first time in many years, the public was graced with a clear choice to make between the reform-driven economic liberal, Nicolas Sarkozy, or protectionist Ségolène Royal, who called for an improved welfare system, with a higher minimum wage, and increased pensions. This return to a traditional bi-polarity in the French system is further enhanced by the marginalisation, at least in these elections, of the far-right National Front (FN), and the extremely weak scores registered in the first round by far-left parties (see France: 23 April 2007: Election 2007: High Turnout in First French Presidential Poll as Battle for Centre Ground Begins). Finally, a renewal in the political class, with the emergence of a new generation of political leaders, bodes well for the future, at least in the medium to long term. Sarkozy is the first Fifth Republic president to be born after the Second World War and is a son of a Hungarian immigrant. His team is likely to shrug off the shackles of the past generation of politicians, which have been perceived as elitist and out of touch with reality on the ground. Trained as a lawyer, Sarkozy did not attend the prestigious Ecole Nationale d’Administration (ENA), long the training ground for French political and business leaders. Even Royal, as a woman, brought a freshness to the election campaign not seen for a long time, but one that was welcomed by the public.

Prospects for Reform

Sarkozy has won on an ambitious-yet-credible programme of tough reform, both economic and social. Seen as a business-friendly president, Sarkozy is keen to lower taxes, render the labour market more flexible, create jobs by challenging the established status quo, and limit unchecked immigration. Flanked by a talented team of advisers, he has further drawn up proposals for education, crime and security, and pension reform. By far his most controversial plans centre on immigration; under the previous government, Sarkozy has already penned a new national policy on “immigration choisie”, or selective immigration, which has been attacked by the opposition as inhumane, based as it is on strict deportation quotas and increased screening and regulations for would-be immigrants. African nations have accused Sarkozy of leading a brain drain from the continent, yet he has countered with plans for a new development strategy for Africa. Reform of the infamous 35-hour week as a start to rendering the labour market more flexible is key to the new president’s plans; he has proposed to allow employees to work overtime tax free, as an incentive to “work more for more money”. He has also proposed affirmative action policies to improve the employability of the disenchanted urban youth of immigrant origin, which studies show suffer significant discrimination. Whether Sarkozy can deliver on his reform plans remains to be seen; even if he benefits from a parliamentary majority, social resistance is likely to be considerable, as was the case with the introduction of a youth job contract last year, which effectively ended Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin’s political credibility. Further, and perhaps more worrying, Sarkozy has been quick to join the anti-Euro bandwagon, blaming a strong single currency and ECB (European Central Bank) independence, for France’s economic woes. He was, moreover, keen to support state intervention following the restructuring of Airbus and toed a decidedly dirigiste line in his short stint as finance minister. He has also supported legislation to thwart foreign takeovers of French firms.

France’s International Role

Under a Sarkozy presidency, France can expect a rekindled role at the centre of Europe. In his acceptance speech, Sarkozy was keen to show himself as a committed European and, indeed, of the two candidates, he has been the most clear on France’s future role in Europe. Most importantly, he is in favour of a parliamentary ratification of a “mini treaty” formed out of the charred remains of the constitution, and he is opposed to Turkish entry to the European Union (EU), preferring a partnership instead. Seen as being more pro-Israel than his predecessor, Sarkozy refutes this—blaming Israel for the 2006 Lebanon war—and has pledged to work with Arab and Israeli leaders for a peace agreement. Sarkozy is also seen as closer to the United Kingdom and the United States than Royal would have been and is keen to soothe transatlantic ties and work closely with the U. S. administration, to the point where he is sometimes even referred to as “Sarkozy the American” in the French press.

The election result has set the scene for gruelling legislative campaigning ahead, in which the UMP is favourite to retain its parliamentary majority. Although a centre-left unified approach could cause the centre- right problems, infighting in the left camp is likely to work against it and the French public is unlikely to risk “cohabitation”, which in the past has led to exciting politics, but policy deadlock. If Sarkozy is to deliver on his reform promises, he will have to get to work fast, but he can at least be assured that the high turnout and clear result have given him the accountability to bring much-needed change and confidence to France.