Strike Call Follows Weekend of Violence in Southern Pakistan

Chaudhry Takes on Karachi

The non-functional chief justice, dismissed by Musharraf in March, intended to take his campaign to Karachi at the weekend. This followed a surprisingly successful rally in Punjab's capital, Lahore, the previous weekend, which boosted Chaudhry's position at the president's expense. Clearly fearing another good turnout for Chaudhry, the government's allies in Karachi moved swiftly. The restive port city is run by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has largely sided with the PML-Q during the Musharraf tenure. It blocked roads and barred Chaudhry's access from Karachi's airport, eventually forcing the former chief justice to board a plane and return to the capital, Islamabad. Essentially, the issue should have ended here, but what followed was a mass outbreak of unrest in the city, during which an estimated 38 people died in two days of violence.

Karachi: A Hotbed of Unrest

A particularly notable element of this violence was both its political and ethnic aspect. Karachi is no stranger to unrest, and regularly sees bouts of serious violence. That said, this is the first major outbreak of unrest in a year, and the first to be specifically related to politics for some time. Most of those who died in the violence were opposition supporters. The opposition parties have taken up Chaudhry's cause, viewing it as a means to harness the broad sense of dissatisfaction with the Musharraf tenure. Alongside this political violence, the city also witnessed an upturn in ethnic unrest. The base support for the MQM comes from those who settled from India following Independence, known locally as Mohajirs. Over the years, this base has increased, with many migrants attracted to the MQM's ideology. One group that has not become associated with the party is the Pashtuns, many of whom settled in the city from the conservative border areas with Afghanistan. The weekend's violence saw Pashtuns attack individuals wearing Western dress, and similarly, MQM supporters targeted Pashtun-owned businesses concentrated in the north of the city.

Police Complicity Evident?

One factor that was noted over the weekend, particularly on Saturday, was the inactivity of the police during the unrest. Although security force personnel were visible, in most cases they appear to have failed to act against the violence. This strengthens the opposition's argument that the government and its ally, the MQM, engineered the clashes in an attempt to pressure opposition parties. Musharraf himself attended a large-scale PML-Q rally in Islamabad on Saturday, during which he blamed opposition elements for the unrest, arguing that they had politicised the Chaudhry case. At the event, Musharraf addressed these elements directly, saying: "if you really feel sorry over what has happened in Karachi, then stop these protests."

Battle Lines Drawn

Musharraf has a problem. He was hoping for a relatively quiet re-election as president followed by "managed" parliamentary elections. Given the long-standing political instability of Pakistan, it is debateable whether he would have got this. This aside, he now has a significant challenge on his hands. In some respects, the weekend's violence can be regarded as a "warning shot" to the opposition, telling them that if they choose to take on the government, they will face the consequences. Force is being employed, and notably the security forces have been given the power to shoot rioters on sight.

Sindh is the heartland of the opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP). For weeks there have been rumours that PPP leader Benazir Bhutto had finally entered some form of deal with Musharraf. Few concrete details of this have emerged, but it is difficult to envisage any such deal enduring after the weekend's violence. Instead, the targeting of the opposition may well have drawn the battle lines for the parliamentary polls, pitting the PML-Q and the MQM against a more united collection of opposition parties.

Outlook and Implications

The key issue now is the progression of the Chaudhry case and, alongside this, whether unrest spreads. The Supreme Court today sat briefly to consider the charges against the chief justice before one of its members stood down, arguing that there was a clash of interests that prevented him from participating. Given the politically sensitive nature of this case, it can be expected to be a protracted affair. This however, will keep it in the public eye, and gives the opposition a good rallying point to capitalise on broader dissatisfaction with the president and administration.

The government has the option of calling a state of emergency, but for the time being Musharraf has ruled this out. Such a move would provide the administration with an opportunity to delay elections for up to a year, during which time Musharraf would seek to end the Chaudhry issue and shore up his support base. This option does have its downsides, however. For a president who speaks the language of tolerance and moderation and who is supposed to be guiding his country towards stronger democracy, calling a state of emergency would send out the wrong signals, particularly to key allies like the United States.

However, this option may prove necessary if violence spreads, particularly to Lahore. The city is considered traditionally pro-establishment and has long been regarded as a safe base for Musharraf. It is also the military's heartland, and if there is unrest in the country's most affluent province, it would be a key test of the army's loyalty to its commander-in-chief. This is largely because the security forces have fewer misgivings about using force in Sindh than they would in Punjab, against fellow Punjabis. As the end of Musharraf's tenure nears, the options are running out and the situation is becoming less stable. The weekend's events marked a dangerous development and point to a significant upturn in tensions in the political and security spheres over the coming months.