Bulgarian protests set to intensify, government increasingly likely to fall

Anti-government protests in Bulgaria are likely to intensify over the weekend (22/23 June). The demonstrations began on 14 June in response to the nomination of 32-year-old media mogul Delyan Peevski as head of the Bulgarian State Agency for National Security (DANS). Since then, up to 15,000 protesters have gathered in central Sofia to protest, calling for the government to resign and electoral and political reform (see Bulgaria: 17 June 2013: Protests challenge stability of new Bulgarian government). Protests involving fewer people have taken place in other Bulgarian cities, including the second-largest city of Plovdiv.

Widespread protests against high energy prices led to the resignation of the previous government in February (see Bulgaria: 20 February 2013: Bulgarian government in surprise resignation as protests turn violent). The February protests were driven by stagnant living standards and persistently high unemployment. While these remain underlying factors behind public discontent, the current protests are focused on perceived corruption of the ruling elite and the opacity surrounding their connections with key business figures. The attempted appointment of Peevski, who has no experience of the security sector, embodied these frustrations.

Outlook and implications

If significant political and electoral reform is not introduced, the government is increasingly likely to fall. The Oresharski cabinet, appointed only three weeks ago, quickly withdrew Peevski's candidacy and proposed a series of spending increases and a rise in the minimum wage. This has done little to placate the protestors, who are seeking more wholesale structural change.

The pressure on the government has exposed deep divisions within the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), the senior partner in the governing coalition. Figures within the party have been quick to criticise Sergei Stanishev, the party leader, and Plamen Oresharski, the Prime Minister, who is affiliated with the BSP but is not formally a member. Given these divisons and the depth of public discontent, there is little chance of a successful cabinet reshuffle to diffuse the protests. Indeed, Oresharski was appointed in part because he was viewed as a less partisan figure more able to unite the parliament and Bulgarian citizens behind the government.

Furthermore, the coalition government relies on the votes of the ultra-nationalist Ataka Party for a parliamentary majority. Opinion polls suggest that support for Ataka, which has won votes by portraying itself as outside the political mainstream, has fallen significantly since it began to support the government. This is likely to prompt Volen Siderov, leader of Ataka, to end its support, particularly if a fresh election looks inevitable.

This weekend will be a key moment in the Bulgarian political crisis. Around 80,000 people have indicated their intention on Facebook to attend the protests. Turnout at this level would probably represent a tipping point in terms of pressure on the government to resign. Government collapse would in turn be likely to prompt another election in the next three months. This is likely to benefit the centre-right pro-European Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party, which was forced out of government in February. Nonetheless, there is a significant chance of another inconclusive result, prolonging political instability and legislative paralysis.