Ongoing protests in a number of Brazilian cities continue, driven by a wider range of issues.
IHS Global Insight perspective | |
Significance | Protesters opposing a public transport fare hike, corruption, lack of investment in public services, as well as heavy spending by the government have stepped up large-scale protests nationwide. At least 23 state capitals have been affected. |
Implications | During protests, retailers, including banks, are at a risk of property damage, including looting. Public transportation has been a frequent target of the protesters. Road blocks are likely to generate further disruption. |
Outlook | The protests are highly unlikely to make the government fall. However, the protesters are likely to exploit the fact that Brazil is hosting FIFA's Confederations Cup to draw attention to their concerns. There is a high likelihood that the protests will extend until the tournament ends on 30 June. |
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Teargas affects Rio residents. PA 16854860 |
Large-scale public demonstrations throughout Brazil have intensified in recent days. The protests were originally triggered by a rise in public transport fares, but the protesters discontent has rapidly widened. Although authorities in Rio and Sao Paulo yesterday backed down on the bus price increases, other grievances currently revolve around issues such as corruption, high inflation, improved public services, and what the public perceives as unprecedented levels of government spending, on hosting both the current Confederations Cup and the 2014 World Cup. There is a high risk of road blockades, incidents of vandalism, and confrontations between protesters and security forces over the next 10 days. The government announced yesterday (19 June) that the elite national force of the federal police would be deployed to five of the six Confederations Cup cities, the only exception being Recife. Large protests are scheduled for this evening (20 June) in Rio, Sao Paulo, Brasilia, and cities across the country. At least 23 state capitals have been affected by the protests.
The actors
The protests have been mostly organised through the use of social media and do not have a clear leadership. Individuals mobilise through phrases such as "Movimento Passe Livre" [Free Step Movement],"Vai pra Rua" [Go to the Street] or "Brasil Acordou" [Brazil has awoken]. The demonstrations are mostly nonpartisan (a new development, as previously the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores: PT) capitalised upon popular dissatisfaction). The protesters are also dissatisfied with the ruling class. The lack of leadership and specific demands allows for the presence of groups with their own agenda, a small minority of which have radical positions, such as confrontation and violence as a strategy. The events are organised and spread via social media.
The targets
During protests, retailers, including banks, are at risk of property damage, including looting. Public transportation has been a frequent target of the protesters, particularly in Sao Paulo, where more than 80 buses and several metropolitan trains have been vandalised. Road blocks are likely to generate further traffic disruptions, affecting mobility for individuals in the country. The Confederations Cup will also provide a high-profile target for protesters until it concludes on 30 June. Protests are likely to be held near stadiums in Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Fortaleza, Recife, and Belo Horizonte over the next 10 days.
The hotspots
Sao Paulo: Protests began on 6 June against the transport fee increases. The military police response using tear gas and pepper spray helped galvanise the protests; on 17 June 65,000 people participated in a demonstration. At least 29 retail stores, including banks, have been damaged. On 18 June, a group of protesters tried to storm the municipal government building. There have also been cases of looting and arson. For example, SP bus operator Viacão Cidade Dutra reported that 80 of its buses had been vandalised and one burned near Belmira Marin Avenue. Protesters also erected road blocks using burning tyres, including on BR-116, the country's main highway which stretches from Fortaleza to the border with Uruguay. However, the blockade of BR-116 was lifted after authorities reversed the transport fee late yesterday (19 June).
Rio de Janeiro: On 17 June, more than 200,000 people protested in the city. Protesters briefly seized control of Tirandentes Palace, the state legislative assembly building, causing property damage. Police used rubber bullets, tear gas, and pepper spray to disperse the protesters. Windows of retail and government buildings were smashed, and cars were burnt. There is likely to be a large protest at the final of the Confederations Cup on the 30 June at the Maracaña stadium. Protests have also been growing in Rio's surrounding smaller cities, such as Niteroi, in which a 50,000-strong protest took place on 19 June.
Belo Horizonte: Protests took place on 15, 17, 18 and 19 June. On both 18 and 19 June, protesters tried to take control of the municipal government building. Looting was also reported, leading to 12 arrests, nine of whom were minors. Demonstrations emerged in different areas of the city, with some groups protesting near the municipality and others at Praça da Savassi (Savassi Square) in the city's southern zone. On the night of 19 June, a bank branch was looted and damaged near Praça Sete. Additionally, road blocks have been set up on Avenida Antônio Carlo. Minas Gerais Governor Antonio Anastasia said yesterday (19 June) that 160 military police would arrive today (20 June) to strengthen security. Protests have spread to other cities in Minas Gerais, such as in cities of Ouro Verde, Mariana, Juiz de Fora, and Zona da Mata.
Brasília: At the opening match of the Confederations Cup on 15 June there were demonstrations near the stadium in which 27 people were injured. On 17 June, protesters briefly invaded the National Congress building. A large protest has been scheduled for 1800 local time today (20 June) in the city centre. There are no further Confederations Cup matches scheduled to be held in Brasília.
Fortaleza: Protests began in Fortaleza on the 13 June, involving 6,000 people. On 19 June, 30,000 protesters demonstrated outside the Castelao football stadium. The protesters impeded access to the stadium, leading the police to respond with rubber bullets and teargas. A police car was also burnt. Further disruptive protests are likely to continue, particularly ahead of the semi-final match on 27 June. However, the stadium is located in a relatively isolated area far from the city centre.
Outlook and implications
The protests have hurt the image of President Rousseff's government. However, the president is still in control and it is highly unlikely that the protests will escalate to the point where her maintenance of power is jeopardized. The genesis of the movement seems to be the failure of traditional political parties to respond to the changing needs of the population, especially those in large urban centres. The ruling PT, former president Lula, and current president Rousseff represent themselves as responsible for income redistribution and the emergence of a new middle class. However, an emerging middle class with aspirations for better education, health, and transportation quality remains highly sceptical of the government as it prioritises heavy spending to host international events rather than income redistribution. The protest movement is likely to remain active – pressuring the ruling class in Brazil through protests over the one year-outlook.