Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | There were signs of relief on the face of German Chancellor Angela Merkel after "a clear commitment to continue the UN climate process" was reached at Group of Eight (G8) talks yesterday, amid fears of stoking tensions with Russia and widespread protests outside the meeting overshadowing the talks. |
Implications | The meeting always provides a forum for individual states to raise issues, but their divergent positions on the topics on the agenda, let alone those beyond it—namely Iran, the Kosovo issue, missiles—had caused some jitters. In the event, formal congeniality was the order of the day within the G8 camp, but criticism was quick to emerge from civic groups over the weak-worded accord, with concerns that mere lip-service has been paid to climate change due to pressure from the United States—as clear commitment to concrete targets was given by the European Union, Canada and Japan. |
Outlook | Although Merkel failed to pin down a concrete target for emissions reductions, she understandably hailed the progress made in bringing rival camps to an accord on how to proceed; this, while meagre, is a first. Today's discussions will centre on Africa and bring in the "Plus Five" group—Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa—in a bid to widen the base of support for Merkel's G8 agenda. |
The first day of the Group of Eight (G8) meeting in northern Germany has been hailed a success after Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States agreed a common position on climate change. In the days preceding the summit, alarm was raised by the media that the agenda would be sidelined by worsening relations with Russia, and that the issue of the U.S. negotiations on missile bases in Europe would act as a decoy to the meeting's proceedings and deflect attention from the outcome of the talks. The actual summit proceedings, however, dispersed these fears with an upfront alternative offered to the base deal, allowing German Chancellor Angela Merkel's pet project, tackling climate change, to move forward.
The deal on the table speaks of a new climate change accord to replace the existing Kyoto Protocol (which expires in 2012) that is envisaged to be agreed by 2009. Any deal would come under the auspices of the United Nations (UN) framework. This will help to bring rapidly industrialising nations, including China and India, into the deal; currently they are exempted from the Kyoto Protocol. It also unifies the European and U.S. position in a key area—this UN procedural integration was part of new energy and emissions proposals that were unveiled by U.S. President George W. Bush last week (see World/United States: 1 June 2007: Shifting His Stance on Global Warming, U.S. President Backs Kyoto Successor).
In addition, "resolute and concrete international action" on emissions reductions, and improved energy security, has been agreed, along with the premise that rising emissions must be halted, and then reduced. Despite pressure from Merkel, no figures for emissions reductions have yet been agreed; only the principle. However, halving greenhouse gases by 2050 has backing from the European Union (EU) states, Canada and Japan, which have committed to striving for that target themselves.
More than Ozone Missing
Not even close scrutiny of the deal is required to see the holes. While leaders hailed the common position achieved as a breakthrough, non-governmental organisations have already criticised the self-congratulatory stance of the group, for having essentially agreed that something must be done, but without committing specifically as to what should be done, who should do it, when, how, or what it might cost. Obviously these are important questions.
The G8 has made a formalised appeal to other industrial states to work to a lower carbon output. However, the position of China was made clear in a pre-G8 meeting last month, with a call for developed nations to share technology to allow more environmentally friendly business and industrial processes to be implemented, including in construction.
For now, pressure groups will have to be satisfied with the political commitment given—and even this is a step forward. Still, the rather woolly agreement remains subject to manipulation further down the line, risking a rather weak result that could be influenced by the nature of its reception elsewhere. Merkel will want to keep up the momentum through the coming months ahead of an intergovernmental conference on climate change in Indonesia, where the Kyoto successor will be under debate.
Jockeying for Power
With leadership of the G8 and the EU presidency until July, Merkel has made a mission out of the agreement on climate change all year, but in some ways Bush stole her thunder with his revised energy position announced last week. Evidence of this changed position came at the EU-U.S. summit earlier this year, which saw the first concession from the United States that action needed to be taken. Some credit should be afforded to Merkel for forcing Bush's hand in the last months of his office, and offering up a chance for him to build a more solid legacy than his record on Iraq. However, it is illustrative that the G8 arena is about more than the formal agenda. As well as affording an informal forum for debate, the summit provides a chance for individual nations—and leaders—to boost their global standing. New French President Nicholas Sarkozy has busied himself with negotiations on the European Constitution, and proposals on how to proceed with Kosovo's status in Serbia.
Japan has sought to boost its international profile by taking a strong stance on the climate debate. The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has continuously emphasised the important role that Japan can play in forging a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, and immediately ahead of the summit moved to unveil a proposal to cut the world's greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050. Abe has specifically emphasised that Japan must take on a role as a facilitator and go-between in the polarised climate debate that has been characterised by a significant divide between EU nations on the one hand and the United States on the other. The political leadership seems to be succeeding in this regard, although the role has been watered down in the process. It is the first time that Abe has attended the G8 Summit, after having taken over the premiership in September last year. He faces an arduous task in measuring up to the international stature of his veteran predecessor Junichiro Koizumi, who was a close personal ally of President Bush. Koizumi has propelled Japan towards a stronger international stance, including the unprecedented dispatch of troops to Iraq, despite the country's pacifist Constitution. Abe is now seeking to differentiate himself from his predecessor and has seemingly chosen to do so by taking a stance on the environment as a key diplomatic issue. The G8 summit is of further importance for Abe at the domestic political level, as it will give him an opportunity to demonstrate his international clout ahead of the crucial 22 July upper house elections after his popularity ratings dropped significantly in the context of various domestic scandals
Russian President Launches Friendly Missile
Earlier in the week, following Russian President Vladimir Putin's curt comments that should the United States see through the deployment of missile defence systems in Central Europe, Russia would consider European targets, Cold War rhetoric was promptly rejuvenated by the media, portraying Russia as the new menace to the peace and economic security of both Europe and the rest of the world. Remarks from U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair regarding the need to play by the rules or see U.K. business withdraw, and from U.S. President Bush over the further derailment of Russia's democracy, had increased the already-high tensions. It was presumed that Russia would prove unco-operative, and that the Western leaders would have to find ways to scorn it, as there were no talks or expectations of appeasement. In the event, both Putin and Bush were congenial. As a way of proving their readiness to co-operate and compromise, the Russian delegation offered to build and run jointly with the United States a defence station in Azerbaijan, closer to the main threat named by the United States: Iran. The proposal killed several birds with one stone—it demonstrated Russia's willingness to co-operate with the United States at an unprecedented level, and also dislodged the argument about the need for the defence system in Central Europe.
The United States has not yet responded, but this is certainly an initiative that should not be easily dismissed—nor will it be easy to do so.
Outlook and Implications
Critics will argue there is no real deal on the table and will look for commitments today that can be delivered on, with civil groups already criticising G8 leaders for backtracking on aid promises made at the 2005 Gleneagles summit hosted by the United Kingdom. Yet any development deserves to be viewed in the context of the unrelenting difficulties faced thus far in getting commitment to tackle climate change from the world's largest polluters.
More Success Today?
The second day of talks will focus on African development initiatives, and see the participation of the "Plus Five" group: Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa. U.K. Prime Minister Blair is expected to take centre stage in his last days of office by calling for commitment to developing nations in aid policy and health issues.
Another potentially contentious issue to be discussed is the Kosovo settlement, which Russia insists should be carried out with more attention to Serbia's claims to territorial integrity. While the talks are unlikely to proceed smoothly, and further arguments are all but expected, it is important that the dialogue goes on. After overnight talks, no common position had been reached here, with Russia expected to dig in its heels against pressure to declare Kosovo independent.
The G8 summit has already proved a useful illustration of the mutual perceptions, fears, challenges, and issues the West and Russia have with one another, but also demonstrated that in the presence of common interests for peace and security, there is room and capacity for co-operation in the new stage of development that Russia is entering. It seems that Western politicians and societies are confused as to how view Russia, since they are used to seeing it either in black terms—as the Cold War-type menace, or in good terms—as fully compliant with Western policy advice, as it appeared to be in the 1990s. Businesses are proving more effective at handling the new Russia, in a way that politics has not yet grasped.