Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has returned to the centre stage of Israeli politics, defeating former Shin Bet chief Ami Ayalon. Former party chief Amir Peretz was knocked out in the first round. |
Implications | Barak has been outspoken in his criticism of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s war record. However, the appetite for early elections, which could propel the opposition Likud party to victory, is currently lacking, paving the way for an uncomfortable arrangement within Olmert’s ruling coalition. |
Outlook | Barak assumes the helm of the Labour Party and will be handed the defence portfolio at a time when the Palestinian territories seem to be slipping into civil war. As defence chief, Barak will have the unenviable task of mitigating the security repercussions caused by the Palestinian descent into internal strife. |
Barak, Mark II
The mishandling of the July 2006 conflict between Israel and the Lebanese group, Hizbollah, by Israel’s military and civilian leadership and the public backlash it generated, has enabled former prime minister Ehud Barak a route back onto the Israeli political centre stage. Barak took 51.3% of the ballot, narrowly beating former security chief Ami Ayalon. The former leader of the Labour party, Defence Minister Amir Peretz, was discarded in the first round of voting.
Barak’s premiership was closely associated with the Camp David summit of 2000, when, under the mediation of former U.S. president Bill Clinton, Barak and the late Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, attended a 'make or break' series of meetings in the historic Camp David location in the U.S. state of Maryland. The summit collapsed without agreement, although progress on some core issues was reportedly made. Both sides blamed the other for failure to reach a compromise, with Israeli officials warning that the deal on offer at Camp David was the “best” the Palestinians would be offered. Camp David was complicated by domestic pressures at home for both leaders. On the eve of his departure, Barak faced a vote of no-confidence, which he won, but only narrowly. He left Israel with a minority coalition, following the departure of three parties in protest at the concessions he was expected to make at the Maryland talks.
The dynamics between Israel and the Palestinians have dramatically shifted since the Camp David; the death of Yasser Arafat, the incapacitation of Ariel Sharon and Hamas’ overwhelming victory at the polls have meant that Barak will today confront a distinct set of challenges and will face new and more nimble adversaries, including the Lebanese Shi’a group, Hizbollah. Israel’s 34-day war against Hizbollah—which was precipitated by the Lebanese group’s capture of two Israeli soldiers—failed in its key aims of securing the release of those personnel and dismantling the militant movement, leaving it politically emboldened by its perceived victory over the Jewish state. The UN has voiced concerns that Hizbollah continues to receive arms and training from Syria, in violation of the terms of the UN resolution that brought the conflict to an end. The glaring deficiencies of Israel’s political and military leaders were scrutinised by the release of the Winograd Commission’s report in May, which blamed Olmert, Peretz and the now-resigned army chief, Dan Halutz, for severe failures, adding that had they acted differently, the outcome of the war would have been more positive for Israel (see Israel: 1 May 2007: War Probe Criticises Israel’s Embattled Prime Minister).
Peretz, a former Israeli trade union leader, whose lack of military credentials was initially projected as a strength, saw this lack of experience swiftly turn into his undoing, as he failed to convince his own party—let alone the Israeli public—of his ability to provide strong leadership and restore tarnished confidence in the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Barak, conversely a former chief of staff and the most decorated soldier in Israeli military history, has vowed to implement far-reaching military reforms once he assumes the defence portfolio.
Outlook and Implications
Barak’s political comeback is likely to pave the way towards a cabinet reshuffle, with the former prime minister certain to assume the role of implementing the recommendations of the Winograd Commission and restoring confidence in the Israeli military leadership. Barak’s return to the political limelight coincides with Shimon Peres’ bid for the presidency, as a replacement for the disgraced President Moshe Katsav, who is embroiled in sex allegations. The crucial test of Israel’s revitalised old guard will be how they rise to the task of tackling a new set of challenges, not least the factional violence in Gaza that has heightened the security stakes for both the Palestinian territories and Israel. Should Israel’s weak coalition government fail to regain the trust of the Israeli public, Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu will be waiting in the wings at the next general election for his own second shot at the premiership.