Gordon Brown Replaces Tony Blair as U.K. PM, Overhauls Cabinet

Smooth Transition

For years there had been talk of an almighty blood-letting when Tony Blair was finally pushed out as prime minister and Gordon Brown made a lunge for the role he cherished. Many argued that Brown's time had now passed, and that younger Blairite pretenders would snatch the crown. But in the event, the transition was as smooth as it could have been. Blair named his departure date last month and no heavyweight contenders came forward. The relationship between the two dominant government figures may have deteriorated over the years, but Blair has been gracious about his successor and the Labour Party is looking unusually united.

This article looks in more detail later at Brown's personality and plans, but it was interesting to see how he handled yesterday's formalities. His big message was that he would lead the country into a new era of change, but he is also being careful not to rubbish his own record when talking about the Blair years. Brown's appearance was somewhat spruced up, but there were still the usual signs of nervousness in front of the cameras. With little fanfare, he thanked his colleagues in the Treasury, before making his way to 10 Downing Street (the prime minister's home) via Buckingham Palace. His big announcements have started today with the new cabinet. He is also set to make some eye-catching policy statements, perhaps a re-run of 1997 when he surprised everyone by announcing independence for the Bank of England.

Cabinet Changes

The most tangible evidence of Brown's desire for change is a major overhaul of the cabinet. The new cabinet list is as follows. Further analysis of Brown's choices will follow tomorrow.

The key figures in this greatly changed line-up are firstly David Miliband, the new foreign secretary. He was an up-and-coming Blairite figure in the Labour Party and at one stage had been expected to challenge Brown. He is promoted from the post of environment secretary. Alistair Darling meanwhile takes Brown's old role, a major promotion from Trade and Industry. He is respected as a competent technocrat and has served in a wide range of ministerial roles. Ed Balls, long Brown's key adviser, enters the cabinet with a new post covering schools and children. Jacqui Smith is another fast riser, taking the Home Office. The first-ever female home secretary impressed Brown as chief whip and junior education minister.

Brown has meanwhile been reaching out to individuals outside of the Labour Party, and several are expected to figure in various ministerial or advisory posts. One taking up an advisory role is Shirley Williams, a stalwart of the Liberal Democrats.

Blair's Plans

The other centre of attention aside from Brown yesterday was of course Tony Blair. He fielded his final Prime Minister's Questions in parliament, a remarkable event that saw politicians of all sides give him a prolonged standing ovation. Instead of the usual barbs, his opponents lined up to congratulate him and wish him well. Blair addressed the issue that has dogged him more than any other, Iraq, acknowledging that many thought he had made the wrong decision, but insisting that he still believed the invasion was justified.

Blair is not about to ditch the limelight for a quieter life watching cricket like his predecessor John Major—it was immediately announced that he will become an envoy to the Middle East. Blair also immediately stood down as a member of parliament (MP). In his new role he is to be employed by the United Nations (UN), spearheading efforts to revive the peace process in the Middle East. He will represent the so-called Quartet—the United States, the United Nations, the European Union (EU), and Russia. Blair of course has great experience in the Middle East (although many castigate him for his decisions on Iraq), and he can also hope to bring to bear his experience of helping to broker peace in Northern Ireland. He said yesterday that a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would be his "absolute priority". Looking further ahead, it seems that Blair will never be short of job offers. His stock may have fallen domestically, but in Europe and the United States he still enjoys enormous respect. In the United States, he has the added advantage of being close to both the Democrats and the Republicans, so whoever wins next year's election is likely to court him.

Focus on Brown: Prime-Ministerial Material?

We might know Brown very well as a chancellor, but there is some enduring mystery over his personality and motivations. On the one hand, he is often characterised as a dour, sulking political heavyweight bereft of Blair's interpersonal skills and telegenic charisma. He is famously frugal and moral, and did not have the youthful rebellion that Blair did. Brown grew up in Glasgow, the son of a Church of Scotland minister who has been highly influential in his life. He was a serious schoolboy and student by all accounts, entering Edinburgh University at the very young age of 16. His academic record is exemplary and he went on to complete a doctorate before lecturing and working as a journalist. His political career was quickly under way, however, and it is this that he devoted himself to with great intensity. He entered parliament in 1983, when he was known as a prominent left-winger. As a manager he has even been accused of showing "Stalinist ruthlessness", obsessively pursuing his priorities and not operating well in a team. Brown is widely respected for his great intellect and self-restraint, rather than his showmanship. These qualities are not necessarily negative in a prime minister, but if there was nothing else to Brown it would be hard to explain his political success to date.

The other "side" is softer and more obviously voter-friendly. He is indeed described as gregarious and fun in person, and is an ardent football fan. His family life has also inspired much public empathy—he married while in office, and his first child died after a premature birth. Brown has lately tried to soften his image with some PR stunts of the type that Blair was well known for. He can be an animated and witty public speaker, and his rather ungainly appearance adds to his physical presence on stage. Blair and Cameron are both very well polished, but too much so for many voters' tastes.

In sum, personality-wise Brown certainly makes for an intriguing prime minister. He has a number of considerable disadvantages in terms of presentation and style, but at the same time the electorate respects his focus and determination, seeing him as a "man of substance". If he is to succeed in making his personality and appearance a positive factor, he must contrast it successfully with that of David Cameron. There is a risk that the youthful telegenic Conservative leader will make Brown look ponderous by comparison, but at the same time Brown can emphasise Cameron's "lack of substance", privileged background, “spin”, and government inexperience. It seems that he is having some success already with this—the "Brown bounce" in the polls has taken Labour above the Conservatives for the first time in months.

What to Expect

It is safe to say that Brown will want to differentiate his government considerably in terms of policies. He is talking of the "challenge of change" and appears determined to adopt a distinctive approach. As seen with the Bank of England announcement in 1997, he is fond of bold decisions that take commentators by surprise. The first days of his premiership are likely to be no exception. Some of his plans have already been hinted at to the press, however, and these include:

• Government Reform: It is expected that there will be substantial reorganisation of parts of the civil service. This is already happening with the break-up of the Home Office, but Brown is thought to favour dismantling the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) too. The Department for Education and Skills is expected to take responsibility for science and technology, while a new department is expected to focus on enterprise.
• Constitutional Reform: Labour has introduced wide-ranging changes to the British political system, including wholesale reform of the House of Lords (upper house of parliament). This chamber is due to become wholly elected. A Supreme Court is also being established, as well as a Ministry of Justice. Constitutional reform has also seen devolution for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and the introduction of some elected mayors. Brown is expected to continue the reform process, although quite what direction this takes remains to be seen. It is anticipated that former foreign secretary Jack Straw will be tasked with overseeing this.
• Public Services: There has already been huge investment in health and education to improve quality of service, alongside many controversial reforms. Brown is expected to continue on this path, and has promised a "constitution" for the National Health Service (NHS). Schools will remain a key preoccupation, and there has been talk of linking every school to a business. Brown is keen to make sure education is employment-focused and that the private sector is heavily involved.
• The Unions: Although Brown may be a strong advocate of anti-poverty initiatives and social justice, he is no great fan of the trade union movement. He is expected to curb their influence over the Labour Party further, removing their block vote and their right to table motions at the party conference. This bodes ill for his relations with the left wing of the party, but this is no different to the situation under Blair.
• Housing: It is expected that Brown will place a bigger emphasis on housing provision than has been the case under Blair. There are great shortages of affordable housing in many areas, particularly the capital, London, and this has economic as well as social costs. Brown has said that the new housing minister will be elevated and invited to attend cabinet meetings.
• Foreign Policy: In general, Brown tended to stay out of foreign policy when chancellor, focusing largely on issues with an economic angle such as global poverty. He supported the Iraq war but was never a cheerleader for it. He is likely to advocate a change of course there, but at the same time he is known to be keen to maintain a close relationship with the U.S. administration. It will be interesting to see how Brown decides to approach European relations. He is not seen as a great enthusiast for European political integration, but he is no arch-sceptic either. He is likely to support the EU reforms currently being advocated, but at the same time would resist much stronger political and justice integration. Because of Brown's interest in fighting global poverty, Africa is likely to figure highly in his foreign policy. He has indicated that international trade policy will in future be linked much more closely to the anti-poverty priority. Brown has also been notable for his strong position on the Darfur crisis in Sudan, and is expected to press hard for stronger international action.

Outlook and Implications

Many businesses will be glad to see Brown as prime minister. He is after all a very well-known politician with a long track record in government. It is much more unsettling when a new and untested prime minister takes over. The economic record under Brown, of sustained and stable growth, has been very impressive and businesses have certainly prospered in this climate. He is also an artful steward of public finances, even if he has been stretching his own rules of late. The United Kingdom has changed greatly since 1997 and is arguably more business-friendly. Brown is a great advocate of enterprise and champions small businesses' interests. He is not a fan of the unions and will not want to restrict businesses’ room for manoeuvre unduly. Under Blair the Labour Party courted businesses much more than it had in the past, with considerable success. Brown will not throw this away, and he has many vociferous supporters in the business community already.

However, it is not all good news for businesses. Brown's commitment to heavy public services funding means no major tax cuts. Labour has reduced some headline taxes while in power, but the overall burden has arguably increased due to "stealth taxes" elsewhere. His commitment to fighting poverty in Africa will colour his international trade policy and could weigh against some commercially beneficial deals. Businesses have accused him of being too fond of tweaking regulations in the past and increasing red tape. He argues differently, but there have been frequent grumbles over his policies. One area that businesses are watching closely is Brown's enthusiasm for "flexible working" for those with families. This would mean businesses adapting to greater employee rights, but at the same time it could help increase workforce participation and flexibility.

In conclusion, there will of course be a good deal of continuity from the Blair years—Brown was after all one of the key policy architects throughout that period. But Brown is not someone who can be characterised as complacent—he undoubtedly has big plans for change. It will be interesting to see how he copes with the new role—he is not the natural orator that Blair was, and he faces a rejuvenated Conservative Party. There has been some talk of an early election in 2008 to give Brown greater legitimacy, but this would be a big gamble. There may be a “Brown bounce” in the polls, but the novelty could wear off quickly.