Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | There have been several alleged plots and arrests in recent months, but the three attempted attacks are the first such incidents seen on British soil since 21 July 2005. |
Implications | The car bombs closely resemble those used to lethal effect in Iraq and elsewhere, and it is fortunate that major loss of life was avoided. Early reports suggest the culprits hail from Iran and Iraq, a contrast to previous attacks involving Britons of South Asian descent. |
Outlook | While some of those involved have now been arrested, there are concerns that others still on the run have little to lose and will try to stage further attacks. The foreign identity of the assailants also points to the involvement of a wider network than was the case in the 2005 attacks. Sustained disruption should be expected at airports and other infrastructure hubs for some weeks. |
Risk Ratings | The United Kingdom's security rating was already set relatively high at 2.50 to reflect the country's status as a prominent target for al-Qaida and other militant groups. While there is no evidence yet that the latest attacks are part of a sustained campaign, there will be heightened danger, at least until the remaining attackers are caught. Global Insight has consequently downgraded the Security Risk Rating to 2.75. |
Country on High Alert
There are grim echoes of July 2005 as the U.K. police and intelligence services hunt for attackers on the run and security is intensified at airports and other sensitive sites. Just under two years ago, some 52 people were killed on board London Underground trains and a bus when several men detonated suicide bombs. Very similar attacks followed two weeks later, but, on that occasion, the devices failed to explode. Parallels will obviously be drawn with those events, but there are some important differences. This is what Global Insight knows so far about the latest attacks, in what is a fast-moving story.
Friday, 29 June
- The first attempted attacks occurred in the early hours of Friday in central London.
- Two Mercedes cars were rigged with large bombs consisting of fuel canisters, propane tanks and nails. Mobile phones were reportedly connected to detonators, although it seems suicide attacks may have been intended.
- One of the vehicles was driven at the Tiger Tiger nightclub on Haymarket, a street that runs between the landmarks of Piccadilly Circus and Trafalgar Square. However, the vehicle failed to reach the building after crashing into a dustbin. The two occupants jumped out of the vehicle, apparently trying to detonate the bomb, before running off. The alert was only raised when an ambulance was called to the nightclub for an unconnected reason and the paramedics noticed vapour coming from the car.
- Tiger Tiger is a well-known nightclub and was crowded at the time of the attack. There were many other people on the street at the time leaving other bars and venues in the area.
- After that bomb was discovered, police studied CCTV footage and identified another suspect vehicle that had been parked around the corner on Cockspur Street. That Mercedes had already been removed by parking enforcement and taken to a pound in nearby Park Lane. The staff at the carpark were alerted and the device was made safe.
- Over the remainder of the day, police conducted a frantic search for the vehicles' drivers and there were numerous security alerts across London and the country as a whole.
Saturday, 30 June
- Confirming worst fears that the London attacks could be followed by further attempts, a burning Jeep Cherokee was rammed into the entrance of Glasgow Airport's main terminal at 3.15 pm on Saturday. The vehicle was rigged with the same kind of bomb as those used in London. It also failed to detonate properly.
- Glasgow is Scotland's busiest airport, particularly so during the peak summer holiday season.
- The vehicle failed to reach the check-out queues inside, thanks to bollards and other obstructions. Two men were seen trying to detonate the bomb before giving up and getting out of the car. One of the men apparently tried to kill himself by pouring petrol over himself and the car, but he and his accomplice were overpowered by staff and passers-by. No-one except the attacker was injured, despite the large fireball that was triggered.
- The uninjured man has been taken to police cells (reportedly in London) for questioning, while the other remains in hospital.
The Investigation
Thanks partly to the capture of the men at Glasgow Airport, the investigation is moving on apace and a series of arrests have already been made. The detailed CCTV coverage of central London has helped track the movements of the failed bombers there. In all, five people were arrested over the weekend under anti-terrorism laws, and all are said to be foreigners. The five include the two involved in the Glasgow attack. The other three are a 26-year-old man and 27-year-old woman seized on a motorway in northern England on 30 June, and a 26-year-old man detained yesterday in Liverpool. The police have not identified any of the individuals, but the media has reported that two of those held are doctors—one an Iranian (named as Mohammed Asha by the BBC) working at North Staffordshire Hospital (in the Midlands region). At least three other wanted individuals are still at large and there are fears that they could strike before the authorities have the chance to catch up with them. Homes have been searched in Glasgow, Liverpool and nearby Newcastle-under-Lyme, in Staffordshire. The police have indicated that they believe the same group of individuals was involved in all three failed attacks. There is no evidence yet of a link to al-Qaida, although there are clearly suspicions that the assailants received terrorist training or were at least inspired by militant groups. The likelihood of such links is higher if the individuals are not Britons. The July 2005 attacks were largely home-grown and carried out by groups of radicalised Britons, although some had met with militants in Pakistan and elsewhere.
The gas cylinder bombs used in London and Glasgow bear a strong resemblance to those used in Iraq and elsewhere, and also to past U.K. terrorist plots. Guerrillas in Indian-ruled Kashmir and separatists in the north-eastern Indian state of Assam have used such devices, as did al-Qaida in an attack on oil workers in Algeria last January. Three years ago, the U.K. authorities disrupted very similar plots to the 29/30 June attacks, which also planned to use gas cylinder and fertiliser bombs in London against nightclubs and other vulnerable targets. Those involved had received al-Qaida training in Pakistan and are now behind bars. Some of the attacks would have involved stretch limousines and it is possible that the latest attacks were inspired by those foiled plots. Gas cylinder bombs are relatively easy to construct, but are still capable of causing large-scale loss of life. It is fortunate that the devices used on 29/30 June were faulty.
The Political Dimension
The first attacks came only hours after Prime Minister Gordon Brown had unveiled his new government. What had been a very carefully stage-managed transition was suddenly overtaken by news of the attempted strikes. The developments posed the first major challenge both to Brown and to his newly-appointed home secretary, Jacqui Smith. The latter spoke of a "serious and sustained threat of terrorism“ and urged the public to remain vigilant. Brown also made a televised address, saying that he believed there were al-Qaida links to the attempted attacks. Brown's predecessor, Tony Blair, was famed for his ability to strike the right note at times of crisis, but Brown also seems to have done a good job expressing the gravity of the situation and urging vigilance. The government has, at the same time, urged people to go about their usual business and not to let the terrorists cause undue disruption.
Questions are already being asked about whether the intelligence services were watching the culprits, and if they were not, why. The government is likely to come under more pressure to increase intelligence funding; there was criticism after it was discovered that some of those involved in the 7 July 2005 attacks had been under surveillance, yet still managed to carry out attacks. Brown has vowed to be tough in the battle against terrorism and the public and media will now be looking for evidence of this. The new home secretary is due to make a statement on the situation to the House of Commons today, when more details are expected about the government response.
Outlook and Implications
The attacks have prompted a huge security response across the country. The official terrorism alert level has been raised to its highest "critical" threshold (there are five on the scale), meaning that further attacks could be "imminent". Cars and other vehicles have been banned from directly approaching airports, which, when combined with enhanced security inside terminals, is causing considerable disruption for travellers in the key holiday season. Security has also been stepped up in airports in the United States and elsewhere as a precaution.
Despite all of these precautions, life is generally going on as normal in London and elsewhere. Even after the July 2005 attacks, the capital got back on its feet within 24 hours. The population is used to terrorist threats following the decades of IRA terrorism, although a sustained campaign in London would clearly cause much heavier disruption. Some tourists were put off visiting the country after the 2005 attacks, but the latest failed attacks should have a lesser impact. While Global Insight does not believe that the latest attacks will have a significant impact on the business environment, there is undeniably a heightened risk of further attacks while members of the cell remain at large. We also do not yet know whether the group is part of a larger network that has planned follow-up waves. Given this uncertainty and the heightened risk, the Security Risk Rating has been downgraded to 2.75.