Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | A mass bribery investigation at the Agriculture Ministry has led to the sacking of Deputy Prime Minister and Agriculture Minister Andrzej Lepper, and the withdrawal of his radical agrarian Samoobrona (SO) party from the governing coalition, raising once more the prospect of early elections. |
Implications | The three-party coalition has teetered on the edge of collapse on a number of occasions, and it is possible that it will come back from the brink this time. However, Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski has been seeking permanent removal of the truculent Lepper for some time, and this may be a condition of any renewed partnership—despite Kaczynski's protestations that Lepper may return if cleared during the investigation. |
Outlook | Both parties need each other to stay in power; without SO's 50 seats, the government is untenable without the approval of the other parliamentary parties. However, Kaczynski's actions look highly politically motivated, rather than as a result of the moral stance he is purporting to argue; past performance suggests he will sacrifice in order to secure Law and Justice (PiS) party's position in power. |
Risk Ratings | Polish coalitions are notoriously difficult to manage and this group—composed of three feisty customers—will mean that finding consensus will be tough. Removing Lepper will give PiS more leeway with policy after past clashes. Despite the poor view of the government domestically and externally, the economic picture remains positive, in defiance of the centralisation being effected by the administration. A change in government would nonetheless be seen positively by markets, as the alternative is a liberal Civic Platform-led business-friendly government, leaving Global Insight's Political Risk Rating on hold for now. |
Polish media is alight with allegations surrounding the case into the alleged bribery at the Agriculture Ministry that has prompted Andrzej Lepper's removal from the cabinet. According to Gazeta Wyborcza, consent was given by Deputy Prime Minister Ludwik Dorn for the minister's detention, in a case that Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski said could involve "bribes worth millions". Two people have already been arrested, and Sports Minister Tomasz Lipiec, from the League of Polish Families, has also been dismissed. The speed of the action led Lepper to claim his sacking had been planned for some time, and that the administration had only been waiting for an opportune time in the investigation. It is the second time that Lepper has been kicked out of government, having inveigled his way back into the cabinet by virtue of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party's need to maintain a governing majority.
According to Warsaw Business Journal, the investigation centres on bribes accepted for the re-zoning of land designated for agricultural purposes to be used for investment in the Mragowo region. If true, Lepper has not only been caught immersed in the kind of corruption the governing PiS promised to stamp out when elected in 2005 (preferring as it turned out, its own brand of nepotistic appointment system to deliver results), but it could also alienate Lepper from his agrarian support base, as handing over the land would be a direct betrayal of his voters.
This must been seen in the context of two additional factors working against the Samoobrona (SO) party at present and, in reality, Lepper has long been a target. He was narrowly cleared of involvement in a sexual harassment case that has claimed other members of the party, including the now-dispatched Stanislaw Lyzwinksi, who has also had his parliamentary immunity revoked. The nature of the investigation into SO is the antithesis of PiS’ family values; key officials have been accused of promising promotions within the party to females in exchange for sexual favours. In addition, Lepper was being investigated by the Internal security Agency (ABW) for alleged connections with Soviet military intelligence and his appointment of a radical nationalist Ukrainian priest, Mykola Hinajla, as an advisor. A draft had also been tabled in parliament intended to prevent holders of a criminal record from holding public office. The amendment was seen as a direct reference to Lepper, who holds a record for criminal damage gained during violent agricultural protests in the past. Lepper claims he has renounced his days of activism, but SO has hitherto arguably acted more like a pressure group than a political party. Although the current draft would not affect Lepper as his conviction is in the past, it has been mooted that this might be amended to ensure his exile. This would excuse Kaczysnki from promises to call Lepper back to the cabinet if cleared by the investigation.
Outlook and Implications
For now, SO has indicated it will pull out of the government and the collapse of the fractious three-party coalition could lead to early elections. The two remaining parties do not have a governing majority, leaving them with limited options. These possibilities have already been considered on several occasions before now during the rocky path of the coalition.
•In the government, PiS holds 149 seats, the smaller League of Polish Families (LPR) 29 and SO has a useful 50 seats.
•In the opposition, the main liberal Civic Platform (PO) has 131 seats, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) has 55, and the smaller Polish Peasants Party (PSL) has 25 seats. The remainder of the 460 seats are made up of independents and those who have revoked alliances with parties.
The options presenting themselves are
• Charm the main opposition Civic Platform into an alliance—the original intention ahead of the 2005 elections where PiS won a surprise victory. Some months ago, PO had pulled well ahead in polls, but this gap has narrowed, once again making early elections a gamble. PO's leadership structure has also changed though, with former prime-minister-designate Jan Rokita having been discarded by leader Donald Tusk, an incident indicative of internal divisions.
• Win over another small party to replace SO—the Polish Peasants Party is the only other realistic option, but it does not hold enough seats to ensure a majority, and would leave PiS with another fringe party to deal with. LRP and SO have already been hard enough work.
• Win back the affections of SO—not as hard as it may first appear, considering the number of times the coalition has split and re-formed. Prime Minister Kaczynski had long indicated his willingness to dispatch the difficult Lepper from the government, which might remain a condition of any rebuilt coalition. Kaczynski's flexibility has been demonstrated by allowing Lepper back into the cabinet in the first place—an issue he had campaigned against before the 2005 elections, owing to Lepper's criminal record. Lepper in exile would cement PiS power, and LPR leader Roman Giertych would remain the main thorn in the side of the government in this scenario. This scenario depends on the outlook of SO, which is strongly under Lepper's influence.
The opposition has been woefully inadequate in combating the government, even though it has provided a number of opportunities when the administration has sailed close to disaster. Early elections have been mooted on more than one occasion, but the opposition has failed to capitalise and is too impotent to create an alternative coalition. Snap polls are not likely to benefit PiS, which is currently out of favour with most of the public sector after weeks of public-sector strikes and the "white town" set up outside the prime minister's chancellery. Neither though, would it benefit SO, which the latest polls show has lost the surprise vote share it gained in 2005 and fallen back below 5%.
It has been argued that PiS is now looking to secure the rural vote captured by SO until now by using the ultra-Catholic lobby, led by Father Tadeusz Rydzyk's Radio Mariya. Support for this school of thought came after an annual station rally held by Rydyzk in the last week, attended by thousands—including Prime Minister Kaczynski. Rydzyk strongly criticised President Lech Kaczynski and his wife, who seen as not being quite as anti-abortionist as the ultra-Catholic line, and has not been upbraided. In addition, strongly anti-Semitic views reported in Polish media have been admitted by Rydzyk, who, instead of retracting his statements, has claimed he has been misrepresented. The Kaczynski government's ability to talk with moral superiority but then act with expediency signals that Rydzyk's less-appealing traits might be ignored for the sake of winning the stubborn and conservative rural voters.
Reducing the sway of SO is of use to PiS, which has fought against the smaller parties in the coalition when they have demanded policy concessions and upset the spending plans of the increasingly centralised PiS government. PiS has strengthened as it has moved loyalists to occupy key official positions. Loyalty is valued above all else by the PiS leadership, as is evidenced by the number of questionably qualified personnel it has protected. The latest to discover this the hard way is the PiS leader of the foreign policy committee, Pawel Zalewski, unceremoniously ejected from the party last week for criticising Foreign Minister Anna Fotyga. This leads Global Insight to concede the likelihood of early elections remains high, but past experience shows that Kaczynski is willing to take strong steps to ensure the party remains in power. Considerable rhetoric should be expected in the coming days.