Election 2013: Malaysia divided after ruling coalition wins poll

The National Front (Barisan Nasional: BN) coalition secured 133 out of 222 seats in the House of Representatives, down from 140 in 2008, while the opposition alliance People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat: PR) led by Anwar Ibrahim won 89 seats, up from 82. Although the BN held on to power – as it has done in every election in Malaysia's 56-year history since independence, for the first time in 44-years it lost the popular vote. It received 5.22 million votes, compared to the PR's 5.49 million.

The markets have welcomed the result, seeing it as the best option for Malaysia's reform agenda by guaranteeing political stability and pushing the BN government to accelerate its gradual reform programme. However, the election confirmed a continuing decrease in popularity for the coalition that began in 2008 when the BN lost its two-thirds majority in parliament. The results also appear to show that voter preference is characterised by ethnic divisions, a trend that also started in the 2008 elections. The opposition's refusal to accept the election results, accusing the government of vote-rigging and fraud, also indicates that the post-election Malaysia is more polarised than before.

Najib's position unstable

The 5 May poll was the first time Najib had faced an election as Prime Minister, having come to power in 2009 after the 2008 watershed election. The coalition's relatively weak performance and what appears to be a deepening of racial fault lines in Malaysia despite Najib's reform efforts now raise doubts over his long-term position at the helm of the ruling party. Although personally popular among the electorate, with a 60% approval rating in April 2013, Najib has ultimately failed to deliver on his pre-election pledges, such as regaining the BN's two-thirds majority in parliament and the key industrial state of Selangor.

The prime minister's pre-election initiative to handout USD2.6 billion worth of incentives to voters also appears to have not had the desired effect on election results. With Najib unable to deliver more secure election outcome for the BN, it is therefore possible that he will face a leadership challenge from within his own party later this year after the political situation has stabilised. Najib, who has attempted to characterise himself as a reformist, will most likely face a challenge from the dissenting conservative wing of his party, who are keen to safeguard the coalition’s core constituency: the majority ethnic Malay population.

Sharpening racial divide

The BN relied on strong support from ethnic Malays, who make up approximately 60% of Malaysia's population and have traditionally supported the coalition. Specifically, election results confirmed the BN's overwhelming reliance on three key heavily populated and largely rural and poor states: Johor, Sabah, and Sarawak. More than 50% of the BN's seats are located in these three provinces, even though there are 13 states in Malaysia. Conversely, the decline in support for the BN among ethnic Chinese and Indians, as well as young urban or middle class Malaysians, was significant. This was largely attributed to several corruption scandals that had embroiled the administration in recent years, and most importantly, a desire among these demographics to eliminate race-based politics, particularly government policies that favored ethnic Malays. Perhaps the most controversial of these policies was Bumiputera ("sons of the soil"), a programme that allows preferential access to economic opportunities and financial incentives for ethnic Malays. Ethnic Chinese parties from the BN coalition also suffered from such voter sentiment; for example the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) party lost 10 of the 15 seats it had previously held.

Although the election period was largely free of large-scale riots, protests, and violent attacks of any ethnic nature, the trend of polarisation is worrying news for the government, which prides itself on maintaining peaceful relations between its various ethnic groups since the 1969 riots. Although the BN's core constituency is derived from the Malay community, it ultimately claims to be a pan-ethnic umbrella organisation incorporating minority Chinese, Indian, and individual state parties. Without support from these groups, its core platform of espousing national unity as the cradle of development is challenged.

Losing the vote

Despite winning the majority of the parliamentary seats, the BN ultimately lost the popular vote. Malaysia's electoral system has been under fire for years and has been accused of being biased in favour of the ruling party, so the results from this general election have done nothing to stem the opposition challenge. Opposition leader Anwar today refused to accept the election results, saying the opposition had sufficient evidence to challenge the results in up to 29 seats, which will be enough to call into question the overall result. In particular, the opposition PR has accused the Election Commission of failing to investigate widespread allegations of voter fraud across the country. Anwar claimed that the BN flew approximately 40,000 ineligible voters (including illegal migrants from Bangladesh) across Malaysia to vote in tightly contested races. The government responded by claiming that they were merely assisting voters working in the cities to return to their home provinces to vote.

In addition, there have been numerous reports from local Malaysian non-governmental organisations assigned to monitor the elections that local government agents across the country have offered cash for votes. There have also been allegations of 'ghost' voter registration, as well as unauthorised registration and voter intimidation against minorities groups. Perhaps one of the most embarrassing controversies involving the government was the opposition claim that the indelible ink used for voter thumb prints in fact washed off with water, providing an opportunity for voter fraud. It should be noted that the government has denied all the allegations, and has publicly stated its belief that the elections were both free and fair.

Outlook and implications

How the next BN government addresses Malaysia's post-election divisions could have significant implications for the long-term stability of the country. Robust economic performance is likely to reduce the intensity of immediate opposition protests over alleged voter fraud. However, it is unlikely the issue of electoral reform will go away from Malaysia's political debate and will continue to haunt the next government. Recognising the importance of racial harmony, it is likely that the BN will attempt to retrieve some of support it has lost by calling more inclusive reforms that have not been doused in affirmative action towards ethnic Malays. However, much will depend on the strength of Najib's role in the BN. The BN's leading party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) is known to be divided between reformers and the old guard, with the latter insisting on a perpetuation of affirmative action policies in order to safeguard the party's core constituency: the majority ethnic Malay population. If UMNO decided to hold a party election later this year, Najib's job would not be secure. Also, there is no guarantee that the next leader would continue Najib's reform agenda.