Election 2013: Venezuelan opposition demands vote recount after narrow defeat

Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles has requested a total recount of the vote after the CNE, Venezuela's electoral authority, declared acting president Nicolas Maduro as the winner of the yesterday's presidential election, by a narrow margin. According to the CNE, Maduro, the appointed successor of late president Hugo Chávez, won with 50.66% of the vote against 49.07% for Capriles, the candidate from the Table of Democratic Unity (Mesa de la Unidad Democrática: MUD), a coalition of opposition political parties. Maduro received 7,505,338 votes against Capriles' 7,270,403 votes. The small victory margin of 1.59% (less than 300,000 votes) was made public by the CNE when 99.2% of the vote had been counted and the trend of Maduro's victory was allegedly "irreversible".

Vicente Diaz, a member of the CNE's board, which has been linked in the past with the opposition, also called for a recount of the vote arguing that the country "needs it". The voting system in Venezuela is electronic, although each vote is printed to produce a physical receipt. A recount of the vote implies opening 100% of electoral boxes containing the paper votes and manually counting each vote. The small margin of victory by Maduro came as a real surprise. It had been expected that he would win the election but the big question had been how large the margin of difference would be. Maduro declared his victory as "fair, legal, and constitutional" though Capriles is calling his win "illegitimate" and claiming that his electoral campaign had registered at least 3,200 irregularities, despite the electoral authorities stating that there was no evidence of any irregularities. Ramón Guillermo Aveledo, the secretary-general of the MUD, reacted by saying: “We know perfectly well what happened and they [the government] know it as well”. The head of the national assembly, Diosdado Cabello, who had been named along with Maduro as one Chávez's successors, said that the ruling party needed to revise itself after the electoral result.

The governments of Argentina, Belarus, Bolivia, China, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Russia, all key allies of the incumbent administration, have already congratulated Maduro on his victory and have not made any comments on the recount process. Voter turnout was reported at 78,71%, in what was the first election in Venezuela without Chávez’s involvement since 1998 and the second presidential election in six months. The previous election took place on 7 October 2012. Chávez won that vote, extending his 14-year stay in power until 2019, before he died of cancer on 5 March.

Outlook and implications

The unpredictable narrow margin of Maduro's victory highlights the volatility of the political scene in Venezuela. A recount of 100% of the votes is expected to take place, with the CNE thought to be confirming the process in the coming hours. Maduro has agreed to a recount of the votes but given the narrow margin of his victory it is unclear yet if the results of such a process could turn in Capriles' advantage. This is key, particularly as the votes of more than 100,000 Venezuelans living abroad – which are expected to favour Capriles – will have to be counted. It is important to highlight, however, that the government will exercise significant control over the whole recount process; the most likely scenario is that the CNE will ratify Maduro as president and the gap between the two candidates will increase in Maduro’s favour. Given the PSUV's control of the electoral authority, the judiciary, and even the armed forces – which play a key role in the process – it is going to be an uphill task for the opposition to force the CNE to revise the preliminary results.

The political outlook in the coming days will be defined by the results of the recount process, and how the government and CNE handle alleged electoral irregularities. The armed forces are expected to play a key role behind the scenes, but their independence is in doubt given the strong influence that Chávez and the PSUV exercised over some of its more powerful factions and high command. However, the armed forces remain a complex and heterogenic institution and their behaviour in the event of a political and institutional crisis could be hard to predict, especially if political stability is compromised. Venezuelan democratic institutions are weak and the armed forces are the only institution with the power to put pressure on the electoral authority, the judiciary, and the national assembly, to obtain certain outcomes and to abide by the law. The difficult task for the armed forces will be to reach a consensus. This task will be made more difficult if the results of the recount process favour the opposition – even if the CNE fails to acknowledge this – or if there is enough evidence of electoral irregularities which could affect the final result.

Possible confrontations between pro-government and opposition supporters and unrest, including roadblocks in urban centres, are likely to take place in the coming days. The opposition will look to mobilise its supporters in the streets to demand the vote recount and make sure that the CNE looks into alleged electoral irregularities – particularly this week as the opposition will also seek to postpone Maduro's swearing-in ceremony, due to take place on Friday (19 April). As such, in principle, protests are not expected to compromise overall political stability in Venezuela. Although protests are expected to be peaceful, violence could escalate if the government and the CNE, or even security forces, fail to manage the vote recount in a democratic and satisfactory way for the different political actors on the ground.

Heightened acts of unrest are more likely if Capriles fails to recognise the results of the recount process. Political stability is guaranteed by the armed forces, which will prevent bloodshed between Venezuelans, and if unrest escalates direct or indirect military intervention is likely. If Capriles refuses to recognise Maduro's victory, the new president's legitimacy will be questioned and the shadow of a possible electoral fraud would add to the economic and social challenges that he will have to face in the next year, including dealing with increasing inflation, crime and corruption, and shortages of food, medicines, basic goods, and even electricity and water. Political stability is not guaranteed in Venezuela after Maduro's election and possible ratification by the CNE, especially if Maduro fails to keep the different factions of the PSUV united. Chávez's death was a game changer for Venezuela and has led to a gradual process of reorganisation of the political order. The deterioration of Maduro's leadership and the fragmentation of the PSUV are likely to take place after his first year in office if he fails to deal efficiently with the economic and social issues facing Venezuelans.