Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Protests led by Buddhist monks continued for the eighth consecutive day in the former capital Yangon (Rangoon) and elsewhere throughout the country. |
Implications | The increasingly large-scale demonstrations mark an evolution of initial student-led protests against soaring fuel prices into the most significant challenge against the regime since 1988. |
Outlook | The junta is likely to exercise restraint in the near term due to the reverence in which the Buddhist clergy is held. However, regime survival remains the leadership's primary concern, making the possibility of violent reprisals high. |
Risk Ratings | Global Insight has downgraded its security risk rating for Myanmar by 0.25 to 3.75 to reflect the heightened potential for instability. |
Clergy Marches Against Junta
Protests led by Buddhist monks against the ruling military junta have escalated after an estimated 30,000 people took to the streets on Monday in the former capital Yangon. The demonstrations follow a march by some 20,000 monks and nuns yesterday, which was the largest anti-government protest since 1988. The protests mark the eighth consecutive day of action by the monks. In an extraordinary encounter, monks were granted access to march past the home of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who emerged from house arrest to acknowledge the protestors.
The swelling mass marches reflect an evolving challenge to the junta which was originally sparked by dissent against surging fuel prices. The ruling government arbitrarily slashed fuel subsides in early August, causing prices to rise fivefold. Although Myanmar is an exporter of natural gas, crippling power shortages abound in the impoverished country. Growing hydrocarbon wealth has failed to permeate through the country, reflecting the government's chronic economic mismanagement and rampant corruption. Protests against the fuel hike were initially led by student activists and numbered in the hundreds. Dubbed the ”88 Generation”, the underground student network is led by activists involved in the failed 1988 uprising, which was brutally crushed by the military. The initial protests sparked instant reprisals from the junta, which responded with sweeping arrests that included Min Ko Naing, the country's most high profile pro-democracy activist after Aung San Suu Kyi.
However, the protest has been galvanised by the mobilisation of junior ranks of the Buddhist clergy after security forces attacked monks, who had joined peaceful demonstrations in the northern town of Pakokku and in the west of the country. From an initial protest in the western oil town of Sittwe, the demonstrations have grown in scale and spread across the country. Action is being coordinated by an underground organisation called the Alliance of Burmese Buddhist Monks.
Outlook and Implications
The Junta's Challenge
The significance of the growing involvement of the clergy cannot be underestimated. The Buddhist clergy is revered in the deeply devout country and is the lone institution independent from the junta's control. With some 400-500,000 monks and novices, the clergy is also the only institution that can compare with the military in terms of scale. Indeed, the junta's official title of ”the State Peace and Development Council” reflects an attempt to co-opt the country's innate Buddhist identity. The monks’ involvement provides a symbolic spiritual sanction to the pro-democracy movement and creates the potential for mass mobilisation should the lay community become emboldened. The support for the student protests and the symbolic encounter with Ang San Suu Kyi on Saturday (22 September) has fused the initial protests against fuel hikes with the suppressed pro-democracy movement. The direct confrontation with the military has been demonstrated by the refusal of monks to take alms from military personnel, which is tantamount to an excommunication.
The respect that the Buddhist clergy commands and the determinedly peaceful nature of the demonstrations limit the junta's ability to initiate a crackdown, in contrast to the immediate reprisals taken against student-led protests. The violent crackdown on the 1988 uprising was directed against its student leaders, but the current assumption of leadership by the clergy casts current protests in a different mould. In the near term the regime is likely to exercise restraint in the hope that the movement loses momentum through the failure to attract popular support. In this context, the response of the senior ranks of the clergy, which have so far failed to comment, may prove critical in either escalating or defusing the protests. However, the potential for a military crackdown remains high, with the regime unlikely to tolerate any serious challenge to its authority. In the event of any such action against the church, the loyalty of the army to the regime will be the key variable. Global Insight has downgraded its security rating by 0.25 points to reflect the potential for increased instability and possible violence. All other ratings are currently subject to review.
External Pressure Mounts
International pressure on Myanmar is also mounting, although the response is typically divided. Western countries led by the United States, which maintains a stringent set of sanctions against Myanmar, will attempt to refer the issue to the United Nations Security Council at the annual general assembly next week. An UN envoy is also due to fly to Yangon to meet with the junta in a bid to promote dialogue with the pro-democracy movement. However, the response of Asian countries has been typically more ambiguous. The Association of South-East Asian Nations, of which Myanmar is a member state, said yesterday that it was ”doing all it could” to ensure a peaceful resolution to the protests. However, there have been indications of a harder line from within ASEAN, led by the Philippines, as frustration mounts at the failure of the regime to enter dialogue with the pro-democracy movement. While ASEAN may exert leverage over Myanmar through its trade and politics, the key player remains China. Ties between the two countries have deepened as China seeks to exploit Myanmar's rich natural resources, and it is competing with India for influence over the country. China's economic support remains vital to the regime's survival. Bilateral trade more than doubled between 1995 and 2005 to US$1.2 billion and continues to grow rapidly. In January 2007, China used its veto on the Security Council to block a resolution that would have sanctioned a more pro-active role for the UN in promoting democracy in Myanmar, and was thanked by the awarding of a major gas contract in preference to India. However, there are signs of mounting frustration in Beijing with the failure of the regime to implement reforms, while China will also seek to avoid instability on its border at all costs. Internal and external pressure on the regime may coalesce in coming weeks. On the upside this may create a mandate for reform, but the outcome is more likely to be instability as the military regime seeks to secure its survival.