Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Official results are not expected until 17 October, but Pervez Musharraf is believed to have taken 252 of the 257 votes that were cast. |
Implications | Although a number of opposition members resigned ahead of the vote, the inclusion of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the size of Musharraf's win gave the proceedings greater credibility than would otherwise have been the case. |
Outlook | The Supreme Court has yet to decide the validation of Musharraf's candidacy, with a ruling expected on 18 October. Until then, the outlook is uncertain, casting a shadow over his latest victory. |
The Contentious Vote
Saturday (6 October)'s vote passed off peacefully amid tight security in the capital, Islamabad. The opposition looked divided and ruling parliamentarians by comparison were out in force, despite reservations over President Pervez Musharraf's deal-brokering with the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader, Benazir Bhutto. This dynamic handed Musharraf an easy win, albeit not a particularly legitimate one. Ignoring this, Musharraf has moved swiftly today, announcing a programme of "national reconciliation", a byword for creating a working relationship between the government and PPP. As such, attention will now turn to the parliamentary elections, which observers are suggesting will take place in early January 2008.
A Legitimate Vote?
Much has been made of whether or not Musharraf should have been allowed to stand for re-election in the circumstances in which he did. A number of petitions were filed ahead of the vote contesting his eligibility on the grounds of his dual role as president and chief of army staff. Musharraf successfully bypassed this by pledging to remove his uniform once he was re-elected, but has subsequently deferred this until after the Supreme Court makes its ruling. It was also suggested that Musharraf could not be re-elected by outgoing assemblies, particularly ones that had already voted him into the presidency previously. This too has been conveniently set to one side, with the deal-brokering with Bhutto removing a lot of the pressure in this area.
The Role of the Supreme Court
Relations between the Supreme Court and Musharraf, but also by extension the government, have been particularly charged for most of the year after Musharraf sought to have the chief justice dismissed. The president was unsuccessful, not only seeing the chief justice restored but also gifting the Supreme Court a new sense of legitimacy. This has buoyed those opposing the president and government, providing them with a new means by which to take issue with their actions. A number of petitions were brought against Musharraf's candidacy as president, and last Friday (5 October) saw the Supreme Court announce—to some observers' surprise—that Musharraf could stand. Following on from this, the two individuals who stood against him in the presidential poll lodged their own petitions, and it is these that the Court is currently considering. Should the Court decide to uphold either, Musharraf's election would be invalidated.
January Polls?
Currently, most observers are agreed that this is unlikely. As a result, attention will subsequently turn to the parliamentary polls. These are most likely to be held in January, and given that a deal between Musharraf and Bhutto looks to be nearing finalisation, will see the active participation of the PPP. Signalling that an agreement is in the offing, the government passed a piece of legislation called the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) on the eve of the presidential poll. The NRO effectively provides an amnesty to politicians accused of corruption and covers the years 1988 to 1999. This ensures that Bhutto can return to Pakistan without facing corruption charges, an issue that has deterred her re-entry into domestic politics since the 1999 military coup. The NRO has been a key demand of Bhutto, despite the fact that the opposition will take the matter to the court. The other two issues that Bhutto is keen to have settled in her favour are the matter of amending the constitution to allow her to serve a third term and reducing the powers of the president to ensure that the holder of the post cannot dismiss the prime minister. Agreement on these issues remains outstanding.
Outlook and Implications
Musharraf has called for "reconciliation" with all the parties and elements, such as the legal community, who have contested his position and subsequent re-election in recent months. He is unlikely to get this. Considerable division has emerged over his actions and his legitimacy has been undermined. The scale of his re-election win will have restored this to some degree, particularly if the Supreme Court rules in his favour. This, coupled with support from the PPP—the largest secular party—and powerful allies such as the United States, set him up reasonably well as he moves into a new term as president. The period ahead of the parliamentary elections will be marked by political instability and considerable horse-trading. If the opposition is to make any significant dent in the electoral fortunes of the PPP and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) it needs to show greater cohesion, but as Saturday's poll highlighted, it is far from single-minded in its purpose. This gives Musharraf—a character known for his deal-making—a distinct advantage, and he will work hard in the coming months to divide the opposition as best he can.