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Same-Day Analysis

Crunch Time for GSK as Q3 Avandia Losses Prompt New Job Cuts Plan

Published: 25 October 2007
Leading U.K. drug-maker GlaxoSmithKline has become the latest Big Pharma heavyweight to reveal major cutbacks to offset growing losses.

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

GSK is the latest Big Pharma giant to announce swingeing cutbacks in jobs and production to offset losses from generic competition.

Implications

The news comes as GSK released its third-quarter financial results, which saw downturns in both sales and operating profit within its Pharmaceuticals division. Besides generic competition, Pharmaceuticals' performance was hit by further heavy losses in sales of type 2 diabetes drug Avandia.

Outlook

GSK is refusing to comment on expectations for full-year sales growth, but the general trend is likely to be downward. A streamlining of GSK's Pharmaceuticals business is no longer avoidable; while Consumer Healthcare sales are performing well, further sales losses are anticipated for Avandia if the U.S. FDA adds yet another black-box warning to its label,.

GSK to Cut Jobs

The world's second-largest drug company has announced plans to slim down over the next three years, in order to head off heavy losses expected from growing generic competition and shrinking sales of type 2 diabetes drug Avandia (rosiglitazone). U.K.-based GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) yesterday revealed a new "Operational Excellence" programme that will aim to deliver £700 million (US$1.4 billion) in annual pre-tax cost savings by 2010. The target is for £350 million of these savings to be achieved next year and a further £550 million to be achieved by 2009. Job cuts will form a key part of the plan, although GSK has stopped short of revealing how many positions will be cut. The three main areas of the savings programme are manufacturing, selling and administration, and R&D infrastructure. GSK plans to reduce its number of manufacturing sites around the world and simplify activities and processes at each of its remaining sites. Outsourcing production and seeking out low-cost materials will also play a crucial role here. Within sales, GSK is prioritising departments selling drugs in its biggest speciality growth areas, namely oncology and vaccines, while savings in R&D will reportedly be "focused on simplification and streamlining of support infrastructure". The programme itself will cost some £1.5 billion to implement.

The planned cutbacks have been revealed as GSK published its latest set of financial results for the third quarter of the year. Growth in group sales was affected noticeably by a downturn in the company's Pharmaceuticals division, which saw a 2% year-on-year (y/y) fall in turnover to £4.6 billion. Operating profit within the Pharmaceuticals unit was also down, contracting by 3% y/y to stand at £1.7 billion. GSK's Consumer Healthcare unit fared much better over the quarter, however, chalking up a 16% y/y increase in sales to £871 million and a 15% y/y rise in operating income to £203 million. Group operating profits were down by 1% y/y during the third quarter, reaching £1.9 billion.

GlaxoSmithKline: Q3 2007 Financial Results (£ mil.)

 

Q3 2007

% Change, Y/Y*

Jan-Sept 2007

% Change, Y/Y*

Net Sales

5,476

1

16,742

3

Pharmaceuticals

4,605

-2

14,186

1

Consumer Healthcare

871

16

2,556

15

Cost of Sales

-1,232

2

-3,678

6

Sales, General and Administrative Costs

-1,617

3

-5,131

2

Research and Development

-769

-9

-2,284

-4

Other Operating Income

52

42

356

16

Operating Profit

1,910

-1

6,005

6

     Pharmaceuticals

1,707

-3

5,484

6

     Consumer Healthcare

203

15

521

12

* Growth measured in constant exchange rates.
Source: GSK

The shrinking pharmaceutical revenue during the third quarter was propelled by heavy losses in sales of several key drugs, the most notable of which was Avandia. Following a disastrous year of safety scares and toughened label warnings, Avandia's decline continued with a 51% y/y nosedive in quarterly sales to £153 million, which contributed to a 28% y/y drop over the first nine months of 2007. Avandia was not the only product to have a negative impact on GSK's top line, however. The Wellbutrin (bupropion) anti-depressant franchise continues to suffer the effects of generic competition, with Wellbutrin XL sales plummeting 41% y/y to cause a 38% y/y decline to £135 million for the Wellbutrin franchise as a whole. The effects of generic erosion were visible elsewhere too, with sales of cardiovascular drug Coreg IR (carvedilol immediate release) down by 37% y/y to £114 million.

GlaxoSmithKline: Q3 and Nine-Month Sales of Leading Pharmaceuticals (£ mil.)

Therapeutic Area/Brand

Q3 2007

% Change, Y/Y*

Jan-Sept 2007

% Change, Y/Y*

Respiratory

1,185

4

3,699

4

     Seretide/Advair

835

7

2,541

10

     Flixotide/Flovent

140

1

446

-2

     Serevent

63

-6

198

-4

     Flixonase/Flonase

49

-23

167

-34

Central Nervous System

825

-4

2,449

-3

     Seroxat/Paxil

128

-2

402

-5

         Paxil IR

92

-7

288

-8

         Paxil CR

36

12

114

2

     Wellbutrin

135

-38

399

-37

         Wellbutrin IR, SR

21

-15

59

-19

         Wellbutrin XL

114

-41

340

-39

     Imigran/Imitrex

165

-2

498

NM

     Lamictal

275

14

796

16

     Requip

87

31

251

40

Anti-Virals

714

6

2,237

12

  HIV

360

3

1,083

-1

     Combivir

115

-4

347

-10

     Trizivir

55

-8

177

-9

     Epivir

38

-13

119

-21

     Ziagen

28

4

81

-3

     Agenerase, Lexiva

37

19

105

14

     Epzicom/Kivexa

80

33

234

44

  Herpes

256

12

758

13

     Valtrex

229

13

679

16

     Zovirax

27

4

79

-7

  Zeffix

42

5

126

12

  Relenza

28

-7

187

>100

Metabolic

297

-29

1,193

-9

  Avandia Products

225

-38

988

-14

     Avandia

153

-51

717

-28

     Avandamet

60

39

228

77

     Avandaryl

12

18

43

68

  Bonviva/Boniva

41

56

109

90

Vaccines

593

49

1,359

21

  Hepatitis

141

29

382

14

  Influenza

141

>100

146

>100

     Infanrix/Pediarix

137

16

406

13

     Boostrix

26

56

53

33

     Rotarix

23

>100

52

>100

Cardiovascular and Urogenital

378

-2

1,256

11

  Coreg

145

-20

564

6

     Coreg CR

31

NM

55

NM

     Coreg IR

114

-37

509

-4

     Levitra

13

18

38

32

     Avodart

72

33

202

39

     Arixtra

25

100

71

>100

     Fraxiparine

41

-16

133

-13

     Vesicare

13

56

36

70

Anti-Bacterials

302

-2

960

-2

     Augmentin

117

-2

384

-7

Oncology and Emesis

104

-61

377

-54

     Zofran

32

-86

174

-74

     Hycamtin

30

11

88

9

     Tykerb

16

NM

32

NM

Other

207

-9

686

NM

     Zantac

37

-25

125

-25

Total Pharmaceutical Sales

4,605

-2

14,186

1

* Growth measured in constant exchange rates.
Source: GSK

Outlook and Implications

GSK is anticipating growth of 8-10% in full-year business performance earnings per share, at constant exchange rates, with CEO Jean-Pierre Garnier saying that "GSK remains on track to meet its earnings guidance for the year, despite significant challenges". The contrast in performance between GSK's Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Healthcare units certainly adds weight to Garnier's reasoning for keeping the Consumer Healthcare business despite growing pressure to sell it off (see United Kingdom: 10 September 2007: GSK Defends Value of OTC Unit Against Mounting Shareholder Pressure to Sell). Where streamlining is really needed at GSK is within its creaking Pharmaceuticals business, which, like that of most Big Pharma giants, is straining more and more under the pressure of generic competition. GSK will not be the first Big Pharma company to initiate a programme of cutbacks for this very reason, and will follow in the footsteps of U.K. rival AstraZeneca and U.S. pharma heavyweight Pfizer. With further sales losses anticipated for Avandia if the U.S. FDA is successful in its quest to add yet another black-box warning to its label, the impetus for change is set to become even bigger (see United Kingdom: 24 October 2007: GSK Settles Paxil Dispute with Mylan, Signs Diabetes Pact with Tolerx, Braces for Tougher U.S. Label on Avandia).
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