Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The act follows months of political upheaval and comes ahead of an anticipated Supreme Court ruling on the validity of Musharraf's position as president. |
Implications | The imposition of a state of emergency complicates the political outlook and also suggests that social unrest and security problems will intensify over the coming weeks and months. |
Outlook | The outlook remains poor as a power vacuum could emerge at the centre while the president's legitimacy is eroded. Fundamental lesions within the country's political and security environment will also be accentuated. |
Risk Ratings | In light of the effective suspension of normal state institutions; the opposition of the executive and the legal system; and the heightened potential for widespread instability, Global Insight has downgraded its political, legal and security risk ratings by 0.25 to 4.25, 3.75 and 4.50 respectively. |
Another Military Coup?
Musharraf effectively dispensed with his role as president by announcing the state of emergency as chief of army staff. He cited security problems and the judiciary as his primary reasons, arguing that Pakistan was "committing suicide" on its current path and that he could not stand by and watch the situation deteriorate further. In reality, the main reason why Musharraf has acted now is his fear of the judiciary. The Supreme Court was last week expected to make a ruling on whether he could retain the presidency in light of his military role, and Musharraf and his team feared a negative outcome. He had previously attempted to keep the Court in check by suggesting that he had the option of calling a state of emergency if the ruling was unfavourable. It appears however, that either the government heard that the Court was preparing for a negative ruling or that it simply got jittery.
Some observers are arguing that the state of emergency is martial law in all but name. However, martial law is different because it effectively makes the constitution and the organs of state redundant. Musharraf, in contrast, has retained the parliament, which is mostly populated by his supporters, while suspending the constitution. He has done this by passing the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO), which places the constitution in "abeyance". Although the government has said that the country will be governed as closely in line with the constitution as possible, seven key articles relating to fundamental rights have been suspended. There has been no indication on how long the state of emergency will last, although the government has said that Musharraf feels the country needs more time before democracy can be restored.
The Fall-Out
Seven of the 12 Supreme Court judges, including Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, refused to endorse the PCO and instead issued a ban on the government from implementing a state of emergency. As a result, they were suspended and have been placed under house arrest, while Chauhdry was dismissed and replaced with Justice Abdul Hameed Doggar. 60 of the country's 97 judges have refused to endorse the PCO, and have also threatened to hold a nationwide strike from today. According to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, about 400-500 "preventative arrests" have been made of key figures, placing them in detention or under house arrest. These include Javed Hashmi, acting head of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and Tehreek-e-Islami leader Imran Khan. Similarly, the offices of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) were reportedly raided, with the commission announcing that 70 arrests had been made. Heavy restrictions have been placed on the media; all of the country's independent news channels have been ordered off the air, and a number of international broadcasters have been blocked.
Domestic and International Reactions
Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), made a hasty return to the southern port city of Karachi, as she was visiting her family in Dubai (U.A.E.) when Musharraf called the state of emergency. She condemned the move, arguing that it was martial law in all but name. Other party leaders have been similarly outspoken. Qazi Hussain Ahmed, head of the Jamaat-e-Islami—which is one of two main parties in six-party Islamist alliance the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA)—called for a nationwide uprising against Musharraf.
There has also been broad criticism from across the globe, with Australia, France and Japan all swiftly issuing statements. The countries that most observers are watching, however, are the United Kingdom and United States. The latter has trodden particularly cautiously, by criticising Musharraf's move but not condemning the action outright. Musharraf has been careful not to go down the route of martial law, which would be a far less palatable option for the United States. Britain's foreign secretary, David Milliband, has been more critical, announcing his "grave concern" and calling on Musharraf to abide by the constitution.
Outlook and Implications
The state of emergency complicates the political situation and casts doubt over at least two key issues. It suggests that parliamentary elections, which had been scheduled for January, will now be delayed, with some reports suggesting that this might be by up to one year. It also looks set to undermine the deal that has been slowly forged between Musharraf and Bhutto. The United States in particular has been pressing for an agreement between the pair ahead of the January polls, seeing such a deal as a key stage in Pakistan's democratic development that would help to keep the Islamist element sidelined. Interestingly, there are some who have offered either muted criticism or none at all, such as opposition leader Fazlur Rehman. Individuals like Rehman appear to be waiting to see how the situation will pan out, before aligning themselves with the element that can produce the best outcome for their interests. This underlines the fact that although Musharraf is a deeply compromised figure—particularly now he has imposed a state of emergency—he remains the primary power-broker.
A number of issues over the coming days and weeks will shape how the situation develops, including the following:
Bhutto and the PPP's attitude: Bhutto could either choose to throw in her lot with Musharraf or to lead a campaign against the state of emergency and the president. If she opts for the latter and taps into the broader social discontent that has brewed up over the past few months, Musharraf and the government may find themselves at serious risk. As the legal community's campaign highlighted earlier this year, there is a growing element seeking radical change, and with lawyers preparing to resume this campaign against the president and government there is greater chance of anti-government forces unifying.
The army's attitude: Given that Musharraf is the army's commander it will support his decision, but potentially reluctantly. The United States is probably hoping that the state of emergency will strengthen military resolve and refocus its attention on the security situation—particularly operations in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) that border Afghanistan—and away from politics. Given the ebbing morale of the army, Musharraf's latest move may have an adverse effect. The military is keen to withdraw from the political sphere and return to its primary responsibility of security. Musharraf's move instead points to it remaining in the political scene for the foreseeable future, which will not be popular with the troops. There are fears that Musharraf may fall foul of a putsch, with the lower ranks considered to be particularly disaffected.
International supporters: The support of the United States and, to a lesser degree, the United Kingdom, is pivotal. Musharraf's move is an embarrassment, particularly for the United States, which has been pressing the president to settle for parliamentary elections instead. The U.S. administration has already sounded its disapproval; warning that aid transfers to Pakistan, which are vital to supporting the economy, are under review. However, Pakistan's pivotal role in the war on terrorism means the United States has little option but to accept recent events. However, it will maintain pressure for change and will begin to lose patience with Musharraf if the commitment to tackling the militant issue looks to be waning or if the threat of serious destabilisation materialises.
To reflect the heightened uncertainty and undermining of key institutions, Global Insight has temporarily downgraded its political, legal and security ratings by 0.25 to 4.25, 3.75 and 4.50 respectively. Pakistan's ratings were downgraded in our last quarterly risk rating in anticipation of greater volatility in the lead-up to elections in January. However, the declaration of the state of emergency could indefinitely forestall the reinstitution of democracy while creating a dangerous power vacuum at the centre. The ratings will remain under continuous review, pending further developments.