Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The representatives of four political parties named first deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as their preferred joint candidate for the March 2008 presidential election. |
Implications | President Putin immediately endorsed the nomination, followed by a slew of other public figures, while the state media poured out pro-Medvedev commentary. The markets have welcomed the increased clarity of Russian succession course, with the Russian stock market index growing by nearly 2% on the announcement of news yesterday. |
Outlook | The continuity of Russian policy will be preserved under Medvedev, who does not exhibit any personal zeal for power or agenda for Russian development. It is even further assured by the fact that Vladimir Putin is to take the prime minister seat, a plan already suggested by Medvedev. |
After months of speculation, plot-making and guessing, Russian politics is suddenly very boring, and disappointingly so. The two biggest questions about the manner of assuring continuity of Russian leadership have been resolved almost with one stroke, an uncreative, if unavoidable one. First, Dmitry Medvedev, a favourite in the presidential race for at least two years, was put forward yesterday as joint presidential candidate for United Russia, Fair Russia, Agrarian and Civic Force parties, the former two holding overwhelming presence in the Russian parliament. The nomination was made by the head of United Russia Boris Gryzlov to President Vladimir Putin in the presence of journalists; Putin promptly supported Medvedev as a reliable choice. Accolades immediately followed from far and wide praising Dmitry Medvedev's allegedly undoubted presidential skills and qualities such as considerate temper and legal background. As a personality, Medvedev may indeed prove a safe choice for the Kremlin. Within 24 hours of the nomination, Medvedev said in a televised address to the nation that Putin should become prime minister after March 2008 to assure the continuity of Russia's policy course.
Medvedev: a Dove rather than a Bear
Medvedev's surname translates to "bear man", but he is rather characterised by moderation and contemplation than force and strength. A doctor in law, Medvedev came to work under Putin in the St Petersburg city administration some 17 years ago, and followed him loyally to the Kremlin. Initially a high-ranking aide, Medvedev was put into a position of public prominence at the end of 2005 as the first deputy Prime Minister. Since then, he has presented the "'softer" face of the Russian government, being in charge of social policy projects such as demographics, housing, healthcare, and education, among others. Medvedev proved himself a diligent and capable executive rather than a politician seeking to build his own platform. He also presided over the consolidation and strengthening of Russia's state gas giant Gazprom as its chairman since 2001, but again, in a quiet and backstage manner, having the Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller on the front line for managing and presenting numerous successes and failures of the company over the period. Since 2006, Dmitry Medvedev has been contrasted to another deputy prime minister in charge of defence projects, Sergei Ivanov, in an ostensible race for presidency; against the backdrop of hawkish Ivanov, Medvedev's "softer" qualities were further emphasised. Thus, the Kremlin dispatched Medvedev as the head of delegation to the latest World Economic Forum in Davos as the acceptable to the West face of Russia. Unlike many in the current top echelons of the Russian administration, Medvedev does not have a secret services background, and his political and economic views are rather liberal. Medvedev's manner and style have so far indeed conveyed a diligent, soft-spoken, considerate and rather relaxed person; notably, he barely shows a hint of a drive and longing for power, or the presence of a personal agenda on how to run Russia. It must be this predominance of an executive over a politician in Medvedev's personality that has secured him the trust of fellow Kremlinites and the presidential nomination.
Putin still decisive
Given that the country is run by a circle of people mostly with St Petersburg and secret services backgrounds, the division of portfolios between the public and the backstage figures is not of critical importance. Hence, Putin's staying in "official" power was not necessarily anticipated, and the formal post he chose to occupy, as prime minister, is inconsequential in this context What is more important is that Putin will have the opportunity to actively implement his vision of a strong, powerful and internationally renowned Russia. While the prime-ministerial post is secondary to the head of state position in terms of authority, a compliant and loyal Medvedev in the presidential seat would serve as a guarantee that Putin's policies will receive full and adequate support. Certainly, there are no guarantees that Medvedev would not develop his own policy agenda under the dizzying effects of unlimited presidential authority, but his previous record shows that he is not vulnerable to power temptations. Hence Vladimir Putin will continue being central to the formulation of policy in Russia ,and the re-arrangement of political figures on the top of the Kremlin pyramid is nothing but a formality, at least for the coming years.
Outlook and Implications
What is most baffling and disappointing about the power swap plan is the lack of imagination and blatant certainty of its fulfillment. Although Dmitry Medvedev will not be the only candidate on the ballot paper, his victory in the March 2008 elections is almost as certain as can be. Not only do the Kremlin elites have a wide range of means to influence the campaign and election process, but the majority of the Russian population appears genuinely satisfied with the state of affairs in the country and their rising standard of living and hence are likely to endorse the continuation of the course. Vladimir Putin deliberately refrained from changing the Constitution to stay in power for a third term, in an apparent drive to instil respect for the law among Russians. His solution to the power continuation problem, however, appears little more than a joke over democratic procedures. While putting the most acceptable to the West leader, Medvedev, at the head of the state, he nevertheless removed a substantial element of unpredictability in the political process and showed that democracy, indeed, has a different meaning in Russia, as he likes to argue: it implies ensuring popular support to the only developmental choice on offer.
Policies are indeed likely to be preserved under the new power arrangement. From the investor interest point of view, private capital will be welcome in the areas dealing with new technologies and industrial innovations, although public-private partnerships, especially in the form of so-called "state corporations", will become a preferred vehicle for large-scale investment. Overall, the Kremlin power succession show has proved disappointing and too quick at the end. With a hindsight, little else was possible given the imperative for the Kremlin circle to stay in power. The spectators, Russian voters, will have to get by on better living standards in exchange for abused intelligence.