Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | President Pervez Musharraf has ended the state of emergency that he imposed on 3 November. This was one of the key demands of the international community and Pakistan’s opposition groups. |
Implications | The end of the state of emergency, Musharraf’s decision to step down as army chief last month, the return of the leaders of Pakistan’s secular opposition parties and the plan to hold parliamentary elections next month are steps towards returning Pakistan to political normality. |
Outlook | The situation remains precarious as Musharraf and the military continue to pull the strings of the political process and the security situation remains unstable. Free and fair elections next month, the return of an independent judiciary and media and progress in combating Islamic extremism will determine the extent to which Pakistan stabilises. |
Risk Ratings | Recent developments have created a viable secular opposition and mean that power is no longer concentrated with Musharraf. In this light, Global Insight has decided to upgrade the political risk rating from 4.25 to 4.00. |
Musharraf Withdraws State of Emergency
President Pervez Musharraf withdrew the state of emergency and restored the constitution on 15 December. In an address to the nation, Musharraf claimed that imposing emergency rule was “inevitable” and had “saved Pakistan from destabilisation”. Chief Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar took a fresh oath under the revived constitution, along with other Supreme Court judges who had took an oath under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) during the state of emergency.
The state of emergency was imposed on 3 November and justified as a means to clamp down on Islamic extremism and an activist judiciary (see Pakistan: 5 November 2007: Pakistani President Declares State of Emergency). In reality, it was used to purge the judiciary and quash petitions against Musharraf’s re-election on 6 October for a second five-year term as president. Opposition came on the grounds that he was re-elected by the outgoing parliament while he retained the dual position of president and army chief. During the six weeks of emergency rule thousands of protestors, including lawyers, politicians, students and human rights activists, were arrested and the constitution was placed in abeyance following the implementation of the PCO.
Positive Developments
Since then there have been a number of positive developments. Most of the protestors have been released, while Pakistan’s secular opposition parties have been reinvigorated by the return of their leaders; Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Musharraf also stepped down as army chief before being sworn in for a second term as president (see Pakistan: 29 November 2007: Musharraf Takes Oath as Pakistan's Civilian President), and the government has announced that it will hold parliamentary elections on 8 January. A final list of candidates for January’s parliamentary elections was released yesterday. Approximately 9,000 candidates will be contesting 1,070 seats in the federal parliament and four provincial assemblies. Another 3,000 have had their applications rejected or withdrawn, including Nawaz Sharif, who has pending criminal convictions against him.
Security and Legal Risk Unchanged
Despite the end of emergency rule, Pakistan’s security situation remains unstable. The military has reported successes in combating Islamic extremists, notably killing more than 300 militants affiliated with hard-line cleric Maulana Fazlullah in the Swat Valley of North West Frontier Province (NWFP). However, sporadic attacks continue. Notably, in the third suicide attack on the military in a span of four days, at least nine members of a local Pakistan army football team were killed today in the city of Kohat in NWFP. Meanwhile, yesterday the beheaded body of a Pakistani soldier was recovered on the outskirts of Khar in the tribal Bajaur district bordering Afghanistan. More than a dozen Pakistani security personnel have also been abducted by suspected pro-Taliban militants in the Bajaur region in recent weeks. The day before (15 December) Rashid Rauf, a dual Pakistani-British national accused of plotting to blow up U.S.-bound transatlantic airliners, escaped from police custody while he was being brought to a court in Islamabad for an extradition hearing. Approximately 700 people have been killed in militant attacks across Pakistan in 2007.
Furthermore, concerns remain that January’s elections may be rigged, given the restrictions on the judiciary and the media. The day before recalling the state of emergency Musharraf made a number of constitutional amendments. These included barring the next parliament from challenging the legality of the emergency order, by exempting the president from having to seek parliamentary ratification for imposing the order. This is the second time that Musharraf has amended the constitution since imposing the state of emergency (see Pakistan, 21 November 2007: Government of Pakistan Issues Ordinance to Legitimise Emergency Decree) The former chief justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, remains under house arrest along with four other senior judges, as Musharraf has refused to reinstate them. Finally, Pakistan’s press freedom remains curtailed as the media is banned from live broadcasts and from defaming Musharraf or the military.
While the international community has welcomed recent developments, it has continued to call for free and fair elections next month. In particular, U.K. prime minister Gordon Brown has reportedly called for a "level playing field" in the elections. Pakistan was suspended from the Commonwealth last month after Musharraf implemented the state of emergency (see Pakistan: 23 November 2007: Commonwealth Suspends Pakistan, Adding to Pressures on President Musharraf). Given these developments, Global Insight has decided to leave its legal and security risk ratings unchanged.
Outlook and Implications
With parliamentary elections only three weeks away, pressure will build on the government to ensure fair and transparent elections. The credibility of the elections will be closely tied to a number of factors. These include whether political parties decide to boycott the election; the voter turnout; maintenance of a non-partisan electoral commission; maintaining the transparency of the electoral process; releasing the remaining political detainees, including judges that were deposed after the state of emergency; and reinstating an independent judiciary and press freedom. The situation remains precarious as Musharraf remains highly unpopular (see Pakistan: 14 December 2007: IRI Poll Shows Most Pakistanis Want President to Step Down). Campaign-related violence is likely to escalate in the run-up to the elections. Tensions are also likely to continue once a new parliament is installed, which may challenge the legitimacy of Musharraf's presidency and attempt to reinstate the deposed Supreme Court judges.
Nonetheless, the return of Bhutto and Sharif and the appointment of General Ashfaq Kiyani as the new chief of army staff (COAS) creates a secular alternative to Musharraf’s rule. While Musharraf and the military will continue to pull the strings of the political process, fears should dissipate that Musharraf’s ousting or assassination will lead to Pakistan’s collapse or the state falling under the rule of Islamic extremists. Finally, the general elections in January have been given a semblance of legitimacy by the fact that most of Pakistan’s major political parties have decided to contest the elections rather than boycott them. Musharraf’s position remains sufficiently stable due to the fact that opposition parties have so far failed to form a united front against him, as demonstrated by the failure of the PPP and PML-N to form a consensus on a Charter of Demands and the failure of the All-Parties Democratic Movement to boycott the elections after the PML-N decided to join the campaign (see Pakistan: 10 December 2007: Former PM's Party to Stand in Pakistan's Parliamentary Elections, President's Party Unveils Manifesto). The six-party IslamistMuttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) has also unravelled (see Pakistan: 13 December 2007: Pakistan's Muslim Alliance Suspended, Says Leader).