Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Although the decision to delay the elections by six weeks is unavoidable given the assassination and the surge in violence, it will further delay Pakistan’s transition to democracy. |
Implications | The period of uncertainty and instability will continue with campaign-related violence, assassination attempts on political candidates and charges by opposition parties that the elections are being rigged. |
Outlook | Any indication that the elections are not legitimate due to election violence killing or curbing the campaign activities of opposition leaders could result in a low voter turn-out, a boycott by opposition parties or, in a worst-case scenario, a return to emergency rule |
Elections Delayed but Parties not Deterred
Pakistan’s Election Commission announced yesterday that parliamentary elections scheduled for 8 January will be postponed until 18 February. Chief election commissioner Qazi Mohammad Farooq made the announcement, citing growing violence sparked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto last week, which has damaged election offices, left almost 60 people dead and delayed the printing and distribution of ballot papers (see Pakistan: 28 December 2007 Assassination of Opposition Leader Bhutto Leaves Pakistan’s Transition to Democracy in Limbo). Farooq appealed to political parties to participate in the election and assured them that it would be “fair, free and transparent”. The revised date was based on avoiding elections during the Muslim holy month of Moharram—which takes place from 10 January 10 to 8 February—when sectarian violence usually flares in the country.
Pakistan’s political parties opposed the delay but stated that they will participate in the elections rather than boycott, although they have demanded improved security for their candidates during the campaign. Concerns continue to be expressed about the elections being fair and transparent, especially given the continued curbs on press freedom and the absence of an independent judiciary. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) alleges that assassinated former leader Bhutto was close to going public with evidence showing that the elections would be rigged hours before her death. Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto’s husband and new co-chairman of the PPP, will begin campaigning for the elections after a one month period of mourning comes to an end early next month. The international community has generally welcomed the new confirmed date for the election. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Washington hopes that "now that [the date] has been set, the Pakistani people [will] be allowed to have a free and fair election where there is the widest possible participation".
The announcement was followed by an address by President Pervez Musharraf on state television in which he stated that the “postponement (of the parliamentary elections) was unavoidable”. He appealed for national unity and noted that his mission, like that of Bhutto, was to “promote democracy and to struggle against terrorism”.
Scotland Yard Joins Investigation
Both the international community and opposition groups within Pakistan have continued to voice concerns over the government investigation into Bhutto's death. The government’s official explanation for Bhutto’s death is that she hit her head on the roof of her car, rather than the widely held view that she was killed by an assassin’s bullet and shrapnel from the suicide bomb. The government also claims that al Qaida is responsible for the assassination. President Musharraf has attempted to dispel any controversies by inviting U.K. detectives from Scotland Yard to observe the investigations. Musharraf stated that the "investigation with Scotland Yard will be correct and will remove all the doubts surrounding it". The team from Scotland Yard's Counter Terrorism Command will arrive in Pakistan by the end of this week.
The security situation remains precarious, although businesses have reopened and transport has resumed. The military reportedly captured 52 suspected Islamic militants in the Swat Valley bordering Afghanistan following the killing of eight people, including a pro-Musharraf politician, in a remote-controlled bomb attack. More than 300 militants have reportedly been killed in the Swat Valley since Musharraf launched an operation against the forces of hard-line cleric Maulana Fazlullah on 24 November 2007.
Outlook and Implications
The PPP had hoped to capitalise on a wave of sympathy created by the assassination of Bhutto. It will now be concerned over whether some of its sympathy votes will be diluted by the election delay. While the international community and domestic opposition groups do not welcome the delay, most accept that it is necessary given the precarious security situation. Nonetheless, the credibility of Pakistan’s transition to democratic rule will be undermined by any indication that the elections are not legitimate, whether this is because election violence has killed opposition leaders or curbed their campaign activities, there is a low voter turn-out or if they are boycotted by opposition parties. In the worst case scenario, resurgent violence could by used to justify a further delay in the elections or a return to emergency rule.
While Bhutto’s death did not change Pakistan’s institutional structure, the country’s institutions remain fundamentally weak and true power lies with individual politicians. This was demonstrated by the appointment of Bhutto’s son, Bilawal, to the post of party chairman over more experienced PPP members in order to maintain the rule of the Bhutto dynasty (see Pakistan: 31 December 2007: Assassinated Former Prime Minister’s Son Takes Charge of Party to Contest Pakistan’s Parliamentary Elections). Prior to Bhutto’s assassination, the most stable and likely outcome was considered to be a power sharing arrangement with Bhutto as prime minister, Musharraf as president and Kiyani as army chief. This would have created a secular alternative to rule by the military or mullahs and meant power was no longer concentrated with Musharraf. Bhutto's assassination weakens this scenario. While the PPP is likely to do well in the elections due to widespread support and the sympathy vote, the party lacks credible leadership. Recently appointed party president Bilawal is young and inexperienced and although Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, will pull the strings of the party he remains unpopular due to long-standing corruption charges. Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) maintains an adversarial relationship with Musharraf and cannot be elected as prime minister because of his criminal convictions. The elections will therefore probably result in a weak unstable government.