Election 2008: Decisive Victories for Democrat Obama and Republican Huckabee in First U.S. Caucuses

The Democrats: Obama Trounces Clinton

Most polls ahead of yesterday's Iowa caucuses put Illinois and New York senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on level pegging. Both had invested huge amounts of money and effort in the state, but it was Clinton who had the greater political experience and apparent momentum. In the event there was a stunning upset as Obama clinched 38% support while Clinton was left trailing with 29%. To add insult to injury for Clinton, former senator John Edwards scraped ahead of her into second place with 30%. Edwards has a knack of upsetting the odds as his strong run in 2004 showed. His energetic charisma, blue-collar populism and outspoken criticism of the Iraq war are his major draws. Nonetheless, coming second in Iowa is a blow for Edwards' hopes—he needed outright victory to stand a good chance against the huge Clinton and Obama campaign machines over the weeks ahead.

It is difficult to say what factors were decisive for Obama, but it is clear that his message of change and renewal is striking a powerful chord among voters. He has been particularly successful in mobilising first-time voters and independents who are disillusioned with the current George W. Bush presidency. He has also performed very strongly among women, a demographic that Clinton hoped would be her bedrock. The Democrat turnout, at some 240,000, was remarkable for Iowa. Four years ago the party only mustered 124,000 in that state. In terms of message, Clinton has stuck more firmly to the centre ground, stressing her experience, and has not criticised Bush as strongly as Obama. She seemingly has more of an eye to winning over Republican voters come November than exciting her own party rank-and-file.

It is much too soon to write Clinton off, however, and she will be looking to bounce back in the New Hampshire contest on 8 January. Latest polls there show she is in the lead (34% on average compared to 27% for Obama and 18% for Edwards). The 46-year-old Obama's weakness for many voters is his relative lack of experience at the highest level; he has only been a senator for one term. It is instructive to note that Hillary's husband Bill lost Iowa and made a comeback in New Hampshire before going on to serve two terms as president. She put a brave face on the situation yesterday: "We have always planned to run a national campaign all the way through the early contests…How will we win in November 2008?—by nominating a candidate who will be able to go the distance and who will be the best president on day one". This indicates that she will make Obama's relative inexperience the central message of her campaign over coming days. A poor showing in New Hampshire could prove virtually terminal for Clinton's hopes, although in numerical terms it is "Super Tuesday" on 5 February that is normally decisive. On that day some 23 states vote at once. The Democratic Party does not officially name its candidate until the convention on 25-28 August in Denver. When the campaigns started, it seemed Clinton would enjoy a big advantage over Obama with her fundraising abilities, but in practice Obama has pretty much matched her on this front and has built up a fanatical following.

Looking further down the list, the other candidates barely registered in the final tally (their defeat magnified by the minimum threshold voting rules). Senators Christopher Dodd and Joseph Biden immediately announced they were withdrawing from the race.

The Republicans: Huckabee Makes a Little Cash Go a Long Way

If the Democratic race remains difficult to call, the Republican race is even more so. Their Iowa victor is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, someone who has shot up from obscurity in recent weeks. A former Baptist minister, he has played the religious card strongly and managed to court the religious right that has been so important to Bush's success. Huckabee's joviality and underdog status have won him much sympathy, but there are serious doubts that he can sustain his run. In second place in Iowa, trailing by nine points, is Huckabee's main competitor, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. The latter is himself a relatively recent frontrunner, but has great personal wealth and a formidable campaign machine behind him. Romney also plays to the party's right, but he has a more centrist record as governor than Huckabee. The former has struggled to a degree with his Mormon religion, but he was nonetheless the clear favourite until only the final weeks of 2007. Romney has high hopes of a convincing win in New Hampshire, where Huckabee trails in the polls. New Hampshire voters tend to be less motivated by social issues and more by tax and the economy, so Huckabee's right-wing religious message is less effective. He will probably focus most of his energies on South Carolina, which votes on 26 January, where there is a stronger Christian evangelical presence.

It is not only Romney that Huckabee needs to worry about, however. Both Senator John McCain and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani are formidable candidates who hope to pick up momentum in later primaries. McCain ended up in joint third place in Iowa, tied with former senator and TV actor Fred Thompson on 13%. Giuliani languished on 3%, but he did not expend significant energies in the state. Polls show the former New York mayor should do better in New Hampshire, but he has a mountain to climb if he is to reclaim his early status as frontrunner. Average polls in New Hampshire give McCain a narrow lead with 31.3%, followed by Romney on 28.8%, Giuliani on 10% and Huckabee on just 9.5%. McCain is the most moderate of the contenders in terms of political stance, and could arguably cause the Democrat candidate the greatest problems come November. However, his centrism is also problematic in terms of motivating the Republican core. McCain has historically been strong in New Hampshire, so his frontrunner status there needs to be kept in context. Neither should Thompson be written off entirely, although his campaign has faltered since the splash he made when first entering. Thompson has been accused of lacking energy and dynamism.

As with the Democratic caucuses, the Republican turnout yesterday was very strong and has comfortably exceeded that of 2004. The party holds its official nominating convention on 1-4 September in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Outlook and Implications