Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) under new chairman Frank Hsieh is expected to turn towards the middle ground, but faces the challenge of building up support for the presidential campaign, which will include refocusing its strategy away from its ideological nationalist agenda. |
Implications | However, it faces a difficult task, with KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, who has long focused on the economy and the need to improve ties with the mainland, some way ahead in opinion polls, receiving a further boost from this weekend's victory. |
Outlook | The polls have set the scene for a reduction of cross-Strait tension; in the short-term by undermining president Chen's strong nationalist rhetoric in the run-up to the presidential elections; and in the longer term by positioning the KMT in a strong position for winning the presidency. |
Resounding Victory for the KMT
Presidential candidate of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) Ma Ying-jeou on Saturday received a major boost when his party won Taiwan's parliamentary elections by a landslide. The KMT won a staggering 81 out of 113 seats in the fierce contest, which saw the number of parliamentary seats reduced from 225 to 113, with 423 candidates standing. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), meanwhile, secured a mere 27 seats, with five seats going to various smaller parties. The elections, which have been seen as setting the scene for the March presidential elections, have reinforcedf the KMT's stance, giving it the power to dominate Taiwan's legislature. It comes after Ma was cleared of corruption charges for the second time in the immediate run-up to the elections, thereby clearing his way to run for the presidency (see Taiwan: 28 December 2008: Opposition Candidate Ma Cleared of Graft Ahead of Taiwanese Elections).
A Time of Crisis for the DPP
After suffering a stinging defeat at the polls, President Chen Shui-bian stepped down as chairman of the DPP to take responsibility for the defeat. He called for the party to unite under the leadership of its moderate presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh, who subsequently agreed to take over the chairmanship of the party two months ahead of the crucial presidential elections. The replacement of the party leadership has been taken to signal a move by the DPP to the middle ground, with a split having emerged between President Chen and presidential candidate Hsieh on the agenda of the party in the run-up to the consecutive elections. While Chen has continued to push a highly ideological pro-independence campaign, Hsieh has taken a pragmatic stance, appealing to middle-class voters, with his agenda of focusing on the economy and various social and environmental issues as well as closer links to the mainland on which Taiwan’s economy depends. According to Yu Ching-hsin, director of the election study centre at National Chengchi University, cited by the Financial Times (FT), growing frustration among young and middle-class voters over the "DPP’s identity-based strategy and its ideological manipulations" is to be held accountable for its defeat. The focal point of Chen’s pro-independence agenda is the holding of a referendum on Taiwanese membership of the UN under its own name, which is to coincide with the presidential elections. This is bound to stoke significant tension with mainland China as such a move is considered to run counter to the "One-China" policy. In this context, Taiwan's security ally, the United States, has also warned against such a provocative move, which is considered an attempt to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
Outlook and Implications
Challenges Ahead for the DPP
Even with an expected turn towards the middle ground, the DPP now faces a major challenge with regard to building up support for the upcoming presidential campaign, which will include refocusing its strategy. Apart from the decreasing popularity of its pro-independence agenda, its legitimacy has taken a heavy blow from a series of large-scale corruption scandals involving President Chen's family. Hsieh's success in rallying the support of the public will to a considerable extent depend on his ability to distance himself from the unpopular president, with observers holding that some legitimacy could be built by a pledge to investigate the corruption case against Chen after he steps down in May. This will, however, be a difficult task, with the more pragmatic Ma, who has long focused on the economy and the need to improve ties with the mainland, some way ahead in opinion polls.
Improving Relations with China
The parliamentary elections have set the stage for the presidential polls, placing the KMT in a strong position for them. This weekend's elections have improved the prospects for a decrease in cross-Strait relations and have raised hopes for a deregulation of economic ties. However, a number of observers have cautioned against seeing the parliamentary elections as directly linked with the upcoming presidential elections, saying that the new electoral system has significantly aided it in this task. Nevertheless, the polls have set the scene for a reduction of tension by undermining President Chen's strong nationalist rhetoric in the run-up to the presidential elections as this has been held responsible for the party’s defeat. Although the DPP may not necessarily go as far as to call off the scheduled referendum on Taiwan’s membership of the UN, the new DPP chairman’s more moderate agenda is likely to reassure China, which has in the past threatened to use force if Taiwan takes any unilateral steps to declare de jure independence. China's interest in seeing a KMT victory in the presidential elections, nurtured by its strategy of maintaining relations with the KMT while circumventing President Chen, is also likely to see it engaging in more subtle policies with the upcoming 2008 Olympics in Beijing drawing near. The Chinese government knows from the past that any confrontational move in the context of Taiwanese elections is unlikely to work to its advantage, as it could push voters into the hands of the DPP, with such considerations mediating against high levels of tension in the months to come.