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Same-Day Analysis

GSK Reports Dip in Profit During 2007, Braces for Difficult 2008

Published: 08 February 2008
Intense generic competition and Avandia's safety scares have heavily weighed on GSK's revenues in 2007; the company is bracing for another bumpy ride in 2008 as five of its products are set to lose U.S. patent protection.

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

GSK's pharmaceutical sales were down 4% in 2007 due to plummeting sales for former top earner Avandia, after safety scares, and the loss of patent protection for Zofran, Flonase, Wellbutrin and Coreg.

Implications

GSK failed to deliver the EPS return it had forecasted for 2007. However as R&D and selling, general and administrative costs were kept at bay, the company has maintained its operating margin and limited its losses. Avandia saw its U.S. sales take a 40% y/y nosedive. Advair and Lamictal were the primary growth drivers.

Outlook

The company has forecasted a mid single digit decrease in returns for 2008. With another flurry of patent expirations and severe damage inflicted to Avandia's reputation, GSK is facing another tough year. However, as Avandia has just been cleared of causing increased heart problems, the company could exceed expectations if it can reinstate confidence in the drug.

Generic competition, a dive in sales of its former top earner, adverse currency effects, restructuring costs and the acquisition of Domantis and Reliant Pharmaceuticals have hit U.K. pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) bottom line in 2007. Operating income, as calculated by Global Insight, declined by 5% year-on-year (y/y) to £7.12 billion (US$13.97 billion). The group's worldwide sales declined by 2% y/y to £22.7 billion as pharmaceutical sales went down by 4% y/y to £19.2 billion due to strong U.S. generic competition and the nosedive in U.S. sales of type 2 diabetes drug Avandia (rosiglitazone). On the other hand, the consumer healthcare franchise saw 11% y/y growth to reach nearly £3.5 billion. Thanks to 4% y/y savings in both R&D and selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, the company has managed to maintain its operating margin in 2007, which stabilised at one percentage point (pp) lower than in 2006.

The cost of goods sold increased by 6% y/y, reflecting a disappointing regional sales mix. The decrease in R&D costs was due to a decrease in charges associated with prior restructuring activity, while the £338 million cost relating to the company's Operational Excellence programme also weighed on operational expenses (see United Kingdom: 25 October 2007: Crunch Time for GSK as Q3 Avandia Losses Prompt New Job Cuts Plan). GSK forked out just over £1 billion for the acquisition of U.S. heart drug firm Reliant Pharmaceuticals and U.K. antibody therapy specialist Domantis (see United States - United Kingdom: 22 November 2007: GSK Snaps Up Heart-Drug Maker Reliant Pharmaceuticals for US$1.65 bil.).

GSK Selected Results for Q4 and Full-Year 2007

 

Q4 2007 (£ mil.)

% change* (£)

Full-Year 2007 (£ mil.)

% change* (£)

Total Turnover

5,974

0.3

22,716

-2

Pharmaceuticals

5,047

-2

19,233

-4

Consumer Healthcare

927

13

3,483

11

Other Revenues

119

19

475

55

Cost of Sales

1,639

13

5,317

6

Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses

1,043

-6

3,327

-4

Research and Development (R&D) Spending

1,823

6

6,954

-4

R&D as % of Sales

17.5

1 pp higher

14.6

0.2 pp lower

Operating Income**

1,469

-8

7,118

-5

Operating Margin (%)***

24.6

2.3 pp lower

31.3

1 pp lower

Net Profit

1,076

-11

5,310

-3

Source: GlaxoSmithKline.
* Growth calculated by Global Insight on an as-reported basis.
** GI estimate: Operating income calculated as total turnover minus R&D expenses, cost of sales and SG&A expenses.
***GI estimate: Operating income as a percentage of net sales

The respiratory franchise was GSK's top earner in 2007, with sales of asthma treatment Seretide/Advair (salmeterol/fluticasone propionate) growing by 10% y/y at constant exchange rates (CER) to £3.5 billion. Sales of epilepsy and bipolar disorder drug Lamictal (lamotrigine) also fared well with an 18% y/y growth at CER to £1.1 billion. Overall, the vaccine products performed well with growth of 20% y/y at CER for the franchise. Other products with strong growth were herpes medicine Valtrex (valacyclovir), Parkinson's disease drug Requip (ropinirole), osteoporosis drug Bonviva (ibandronate) and anticoagulant Arixtra (fondaparinux sodium), with jumps in sales of 18%, 36%, 79% and 81% y/y at CER respectively.

The metabolic franchise took a beating due to a dramatic 34% y/y decrease in sales at CER for last year's top-earner Avandia, on the back of safety scares (see United Kingdom: 22 May 2007: GSK Strongly Defends Avandia After Study Links It to Increased Heart Attack Risk). In 2007, Avandia generated revenues of £877 million. The HIV franchise delivered mixed results with global sales down by 1% y/y at CER, as older products faced competition from new products such as Merck's (U.S.) Isentress (raltegravir) and Pfizer's (U.S.) Celsentri/Selzentry (maraviroc). GSK's newer HIV products, Lexiva (fosamprenavir calcium) and Epzicom/Kivexa (Epivir + Ziagen), saw strong market uptake.

Heart drug Coreg IR (carvedilol), cancer treatment Zofran (ondansetron), asthma treatment Flonase (fluticasone propionate) and anti-depressant Wellbutrin XL (bupropion) fell victim to generic competition and saw their sales plummet by 18%, 77%, 34% and 37% y/y at CER respectively.

Full-Year 2007 Sales of GSK Pharmaceutical Products

Brand

Full-Year Sales (£ mil.)

% Change Y/Y (CER)*

% Change Y/Y (£)

Respiratory

5,032

5

0.7

Seretide/Advair

3,499

10

5.6

Flixotide/Flovent

621

-1

-5.8

Serevent

269

-4

-7.6

Flixonase/Flonase

199

-34

-36.0

Central Nervous System

3,348

-2

-8.1

Seroxat/Paxil

553

-6

-10.8

 Paxil IR

400

-6

-10.7

 Paxil CR

153

-4

-11.0

Wellbutrin

529

-37

-41.2

 Wellbutrin IR/SR

75

-23

-26.5

 Wellbutrin XL

454

-39

-43.1

Imigran/Imitrex

685

3

-3.7

Lamictal

1,097

18

10.1

Requip

346

36

29.1

Antivirals

3,028

13

7.1

HIV

1,442

-1

-4.8

Combivir

455

-10

-13.8

Trizivir

233

-9

-13.1

Epivir

156

-20

-22.8

Ziagen

109

-3

-6.8

Agenerase/Lexiva

141

13

7.6

Epzicom/Kivexa

324

39

34.4

Herpes

1,041

15

7.9

Valtrex

934

18

10.5

Zovirax

107

-8

-10.8

Zeffix

168

8

3.7

Relenza

262

>100

187.9

Metabolic

1,514

-15

-19.3

Avandia

877

-34

-37.3

Avandamet

292

49

43.1

Avandaryl

50

26

19.0

Bonviva/Boniva

161

79

69.5

Vaccines

1,993

20

17.8

Hepatitis

529

14

10.4

Influenza

320

93

-

Infanrix/Pediarix

543

9

6.3

Boostrix

66

15

10.0

Rotarix

91

>100

-

Cervarix

10

-

-

Cardiovascular and Urogenital

1,554

-

-5.0

Coreg

587

-18

-24.6

Levitra

49

23

14.0

Avodart

285

38

31.9

Arixtra

100

81

72.4

Fraxiparine

184

-12

-12.0

Vesicare

50

69

-

Antibacterials

1,330

-1

-2.8

Augmentin

530

-6

-7.0

Oncology and Emesis

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