Malaysian Prime Minister Calls Snap Election Amid Heightened Ethnic Tension

An Expected Snap Election

Malaysian prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi today called for a snap election, dissolving the country’s parliament more than a year before the general election was due to be held. The move was expected and is widely considered an attempt to pre-empt the opposition and shore up public support for his reform programme. The election commission is now to set a date for the polls, which must be within 60 days of the dissolution of parliament under Malaysian law; a date in early March is expected.

Troubled Times

Although the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition is expected to continue its unbroken rule, which can be traced back to Malaysia's attainment of independence in 1957, it is expected to see a significant decline in support. Prime Minister Badawi publicly acknowledged that a landslide victory comparable to that of 2004, when the Barisan Nasional won 90% of the vote, was unlikely. His popularity has slumped over the past year amid growing ethnic tension, unprecedented protests, and widespread discontent over fuel price increases, food inflation, and crime—often blamed on Malaysia’s foreign workers. Recent opinion polls have shown Badawi’s popularity rates to have dropped to as low as 30%, highlighting the need for the government to confront several issues left unaddressed, notably affirmative action policies favouring the majority Malay population at the expense of the Chinese and Indian minorities.

Heightened Ethnic Tension

The upcoming election will take place in the context of heightened ethnic tension in the country and follow in the wake of a series on unprecedented street rallies protesting the conditions of Malaysia’s ethnic minorities and corruption within the legal establishment. Notably, a major protest drawing some 10,000 Indians in November last year raised the spectre of ethnic conflict. The successive mass demonstrations have constituted the largest challenge to the Badawi government since it came to power in 2003, with its subsequent crackdown on dissent raising concerns over the country's democratic credentials. The crackdown culminated in the invocation of the draconian Internal Security Act (ISA) against Indian activists involved in organising the November rally (see Malaysia: 12 December 2007: Malaysian Government Invokes Controversial Internal Security Act to Contain Mounting Dissent). It was the first time for the ISA to be used since 2001, when former premier Mahathir Mohammed invoked it to contain the Reformasi reform movement, which was spearheaded by former vice-premier Anwar Ibrahim. The invocation of the ISA highlights the authorities' commitment to resolutely cracking down on dissent, with the mass arrests and legal actions launched against demonstrators mirroring those that took place during the Reformasi street protests of 1998-2001. The crackdown has threatened to inflame already-growing ethnic tension in Malaysia, as moves to comprehensively address the grievances of the country's minorities are prevented by ethnic Malay forces perpetuating the status quo (see Malaysia: 12 December 2007: Concerns Raised over Malaysia's Democratic Credentials as Key Opposition Members Are Rounded Up).

The Question of Timing

Although the government was not due to hold polls until 2009, Badawi was widely expected to call snap elections before spring. The motivation behind this move has several dimensions. In the economic sphere, there are concerns that Malaysia’s export-dependent economy may well slow over the year in response to slumping global demand, and the government would like to capitalise on positive sentiment while it still can. The announcement of a string of five development plans for the country has preceded the call for snap elections—all designed to boost investment into the country’s regions and support for the government (see Malaysia: 12 February 2008: Malaysian Government Launches Billion-Dollar Development Plan for Sarawak State).

Pre-empting Malaysia's Opposition

In the political sphere, early elections will pre-empt the de facto leader of opposition party Keadilan, Anwar Ibrahim, from standing in elections as it is feared that he may emerge as a unifying force for the opposition, renewing the Reformasi movement. Anwar is barred from standing until April due to his conviction in a corruption case that erupted in 1998 and led to his downfall. It was widely believed to be politically motivated, with Badawi’s predecessor, Mahathir Mohammed, fearing that he had gained too much influence. A potential comeback for Anwar would come at a sensitive time for the government, as it faces falling support. Meanwhile, Anwar has previously announced his intention to launch a political comeback through a delayed by-election if the increasingly unpopular government should decide to call elections in March ahead of the expiry of his ban. According to the Financial Times (FT), Anwar has stated that some 20 members of parliament had made offers to stand down in a bid to pave the way for his return to Malaysian politics.

Outlook and Implications

Coming at a time of polarisation, the elections are set to be characterised by political tension. The Malaysian government has faced a dilemma over the elections issue: either it could postpone elections, thereby risking the possibility that Anwar may mobilise a more cohesive opposition; or it could call early elections despite its decreasing popularity, while at the same time facing a legitimacy deficit as it seeks to pre-empt the opposition and perpetuate Malay rule. As expected, the government decided against taking the chance of letting Anwar stand in elections, although this means that they will come at a time when its position is weakened.