Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Thaksin Shinawatra has returned to Thailand for the first time in 17 months, following his ousting in a military coup in September 2006. |
Implications | The removal of Thaksin’s five-year ban from politics and charges of corruption will determine his future role in Thai politics. |
Outlook | Thaksin’s return could divide loyalties between himself and Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, who is facing controversy over a series of recent statements. |
Thaksin Shinawatra, the twice-elected former prime minister of Thailand who was ousted in a military coupin September 2006, returned to his home country today. Thaksin had spent the last 17 months in self-imposed exile. Most of his time has been spent in the United Kingdom, where he is chairman of the Manchester City football team, although he has been in Hong Kong since Thailand reverted back to democratic rule following the country’s parliamentary election in December 2007. He told reporters that his decision to return was prompted by the restoration of democracy in Thailand and the desire to “reclaim” his reputation, following allegations of corruption and disrespect for Thailand's revered monarchy. He told reporters that he had “no desire to seek revenge against anyone”, referring to the instigators of the coup in the military and the King’s Privy Council.
Approximately 10,000 supporters greeted Thaksin upon his arrival in Bangkok international airport this morning, before he was escorted by police to the Supreme Court and attorney general’s office to hear charges of corruption and securities fraud. He has been released on bail of 9 million baht (US$281,000) and barred from leaving the country. He is due to appear before the Supreme Court on 12 March and the attorney general’s office on 3 April. Thaksin is also expected to visit the Grand Palace to pay his respects to the late sister of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, which is seen as an attempt at rapprochement with the monarchy.
The corruption charges against him date back to 2003 when he allegedly used his influence as prime minister to win a property deal for his wife. Thailand’s Department of Special Investigations has also charged Thaksin with making fraudulent filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission in the listing of a property company. Thaksin and his wife Pojaman, who returned to Thailand last month (see Thailand: 8 January 2008: Former PM’s Wife Returns to Face Corruption Charges in Thailand), could each face up to 15 years in prison if convicted. Investigations are also continuing into the sale of his telecom company Shin Corp to Singapore’s Temasek Holdings in January 2006. The previous Council for National Security (CNS) military-led government has frozen US$2 billion in assets belonging to Thaksin and his family. They also issued a five-year ban on him participating in politics, which also applies to another 110 politicians from his now defunct Thai Rak Thai party. The new government has stated that it may consider granting Thaksin an amnesty after two years, however.
Outlook and Implications
Divided Country
The country remains divided over its views on Thaksin. The 16-month rule of the military government has been widely discredited for its mishandling of the economy, insurgency in the country’s four Malay/Muslim-majority southern provinces and the inability to convict Thaksin on any charges. Thailand’s urban middle-class generally welcomed the coup while those in the rural north and north-east remain ardent Thaksin supporters. The People's Alliance for Democracy, which has led anti-Thaksin activities, has vowed to take to the streets if there appear to be attempts to manipulate the judicial process in investigating the charges against Thaksin.
Divided Party
Thaksin’s return to Thailand also comes as a new democratically elected government rules the country, which is led by a six-party coalition of the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP). Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej’s cabinet is comprised of numerous Thaksin loyalists, including foreign minister Noppadon Pattama, a former personal lawyer for the ousted premier; and finance minister Surapong Suebwonglee, a former government spokesman for the Thaksin administration (see Thailand: 7 February 2008: Thai PM Unveils Cabinet Comprised of Thaksin Allies). This has exposed a potential division of loyalties in the PPP between Thaksin and Samak, which may be fuelled by the return of the former.
A string of recent controversial statements by Samak, coupled with his confrontational leadership style, may further aggravate internal divisions within the PPP. Last week Samak stated that he would revive a controversial “war on drugs” which was implemented by Thaksin and resulted in the extra-judicial killing of 2,500 people in 2003 and 2004. Samak claimed that casualties during the anti-narcotics campaign were mainly a result of in-fighting between drug traffickers and noted that the new campaign may also result in significant casualties. In interviews with CNN and al-Jazeera earlier this month, Samak also claimed that the casualties from the military crackdown on student protestors in October 1976 were exaggerated. Samak was in the police at the time and his statements have sparked rifts within his government, as many members of his party and the ruling coalition were part of the student protests in 1976. Samak has also stated that the 78 people who died by suffocation during the Tak Bai incident in October 2004 were to blame for their own deaths; security forces had piled up detainees to transport them to an army detention facility in Pattani province following protests outside a police station in Narathiwat province. This has drawn condemnation from human rights groups and opposition political parties.
Return to Normality or Instability?
Although Thaksin claims he has no political ambitions, his future role in Thai politics will depend on whether he is rehabilitated from corruption charges and the five-year ban on his participation in politics. Furthermore, his relationship with Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and Thailand’s monarchy and military will determine the extent to which he emerges as destabilising factor in Thai politics.