Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Yesterday, Bertie Ahern, the Irish Taoiseach and leader of the centrist Fianna Fáil party, announced his intention to resign on 6 May. |
Implications | The long-running inquiry into Ahern’s personal finances has proved too much for the popular politician in the end. His resignation is an attempt to limit the damage to the coalition government before the crucial referendum on the European Union Reform Treaty. |
Outlook | Ahern's departure will leave a significant void in Irish politics. His most probable successor, current Finance Minister Brian Cowen, may have an impressive economic record, but he will find it difficult to fill Ahern’s shoes. |
A significant chapter in Irish history is coming to an end after the record three-time Taoiseach (prime minister) and leader of the centrist Fianna Fáil (FF) party, Bertie Ahern, yesterday announced his resignation. Ahern said that he would step down on 6 May yesterday before addressing the Dáil (lower house of parliament) on the investigation into his personal finances during the 1990s (see Ireland: 2 April 2008: Irish PM Attacks Investigating Tribunal over Corruption Allegations). The Taoiseach stated that the ongoing inquiry by the Mahon Tribunal into his financial activities is hindering the work of the coalition government. In his remaining month as leader, Ahern is set to visit the United States and welcome the prime minister of Japan, while he will look to ensure a smooth handover of power to his successor; a timetable for the election of his replacement will be devised by the FF's national executive today.
The Curse of Long Government
Ahern's announcement has sent huge shockwaves across the Irish political scene. He has dominated Irish politics for the past 10 years and his departure will leave a significant void. Under his leadership since 1997, the country has undergone a rapid economic turnaround that earned it its nickname the “Celtic Tiger”, and it overcame long-standing differences with the United Kingdom over the future administration of Northern Ireland in the Belfast Agreement (also known as the Good Friday Agreement) of 1998. Ahern has also overseen successful social partnership talks and the ratification of European Union (EU) treaties by referendum.
However, for all his impressive achievements, which earned him a record three-time tenure as prime minister, much of Ahern’s time in power has been tainted by the corruption allegations levelled against him. Just as he embarked on his 10-year term as Taoiseach, the Irish government launched the Mahon Tribunal to look into corrupt activities of high-ranking officials. A significant part of the tribunal's work has been to establish the truth behind deposits worth more than I£452,800 (equivalent to 886,830 euro in today's terms) entered into Ahern’s personal accounts between 1988 and 1997, when he assumed the post as Taoiseach for the first time. Ahern managed to outwit the tribunal for almost 10 years, but last month his former constituency secretary, Gráinne Carruth, contradicted his previous statement that he did not consent to any foreign deposits in his name.
The tribunal has given the otherwise weak opposition a weapon with which to attack the government throughout Ahern’s premiership. When his coalition partners also started to turn on him last week, Ahern decided to make a public statement about his personal finances in the Dáil. However, it seems that the prospect of further questioning over apparently contradictory statements proved too much for the Taoiseach, and he decided to resign from his post. The longer Ahern stayed in power, the more his past financial activities became a hindrance to the government. Politicians of all strands have praised Ahern's achievements while in power, yet some will clearly be glad to see the back of the man who has dominated Irish politics for the last decade.
Outlook and Implications
The Taoiseach's decision to resign is an attempt to safeguard the credibility of the government. It prevents the need for new elections, which the government may well have lost given its waning popularity, while it also improves the prospects of success in the crucial referendum on the EU Reform Treaty to be held in June. The date for Ahern's departure has been carefully chosen to allow the Taoiseach a dignified exit, as he will hope to leave on a high note following two high-level visits, while it will also ensure a month’s preparation time for the EU referendum. Fianna Fáil now has tight deadlines to meet as it looks to appoint Ahern’s successor. By and large, current Finance Minister Brian Cowen fits the bill. He was named Ahern's favoured successor last year, and he has shown strong resilience in successive rounds of talks on social partnership agreements. However, he received much criticism from business associations and trade unions alike over the 2008 budget (see Ireland: 6 December 2007: Budget 2008: Irish Budget Overshadowed by Weakening Economic Context). Cowen, who became finance minister in 2004, has recently had to get accustomed to having less financial leeway, as Ireland's economic boom years are slowly coming to an end. He is known as a pragmatic politician with a reputation as a fierce debater, who together with Ahern formed a team not dissimilar to that of charismatic French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his more sombre but very capable administrator, Prime Minister François Fillon.
Whoever succeeds Ahern will not change the business-friendly outlook of the Irish government, and will continue to push through reforms designed to enhance Ireland's appeal to investors. Nor will the change in leadership affect Ireland's positive stance on EU affairs; Cowen in particular would guarantee this as he was a Europhile foreign minister prior to taking up the post of finance minister in 2004. However, the change in leadership could affect Fianna Fáil's public appeal. Ireland is coming to the end of an important chapter in its political history, and although the façade will remain intact, the change of leadership could alter the balance of power in the country.