Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Despite a grilling by both the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee, which also provided a platform for the main U.S. presidential contenders to trade barbs, General Petraeus refused to offer a timeline on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. |
Implications | The general was, however, vocal in his criticism of Iranian involvement in Iraq, saying that so-called ‘special groups’ aligned to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), were stoking trouble in the country. His remarks were at odds with the recommendations of Democrat presidential hopeful Barack Obama, who called for Iranian engagement. |
Outlook | Petraeus' testimony shows that while there may have been security gains, the respite has failed to spur Iraq’s political leaders into action; until political reconciliation truly gets under way, the situation will remain extremely fragile and a very heavy burden for the United States. |
A Seven Month Review
General David Petraeus and Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, whose last appearance before the Senate Armed and Foreign Relations Committees was at the height of the surge strategy in September 2007, said yesterday that the security gains achieved so far were patchy and advised against a troop draw-down timetable. Petraeus also said that a 45-day consolidation period was necessary after mid-July, when the surge brigades will leave the country, and when the number of U.S. troops stationed in Iraq will be back to the 140,000 level. The caution displayed by Petraeus and other U.S. military commanders in Iraq is testament to Iraq’s security woes, which have been suppressed, rather than overcome, by the injection of U.S. military muscle. The past fortnight, which has seen inter-Shi’a violence in the southern city of Basra, as well as a spate of deadly rocket attacks against the Green Zone in Baghdad, the capital, has underlined the need for the continued U.S. troop presence. Crocker nonetheless tried to reassure lawmakers that the United States will not need to establish permanent military bases within Iraq.
The effort led by President Nuri al-Maliki against the Mehdi Army of Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, which brought into sharp focus the inadequacies of Iraq’s security forces, was also examined. Petraeus characterised the operation—which was portrayed as a symbol of the Iraqi government's new-found confidence and strength—as poorly-planned and executed. U.S. lawmakers pointed out that the refusal of some 1,500 Iraqi forces to bear arms against Shi’a militias was symptomatic of the sectarianism within the Iraqi army and security forces. Senator Carl Levin, the Democrat chair of the Armed Services Committee, spared no punches, accusing Maliki of "incompetence and excessively sectarian leadership," and adding that, “the United States must force Iraqi leaders "to take responsibility for their own future—politically, economically and militarily". Democrats have balked at the idea of an open-ended troop presence, saying that this denies Iraqi legislators the motivation to institute long-overdue political reforms urgently. Although Iraqi leaders have made some political progress, including setting a date for the controversial provincial elections, more thorny issues, such as Iran’s oil law, continue to be brushed under the carpet.
As for Iran?
General Petraeus also turned his attention to Iran, saying that the Islamic Republic continues to play a “destructive role” in Iraq, to the detriment of Iraq’s long-term viability as a stable democratic state. The pendulum of U-S.-Iranian relations has once again swung against the latter. Initial meetings between Ambassador Crocker and his Iranian counterpart have given way to revived acrimony, with U.S. officials pointing the finger at the foreign wing of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC's so-called Quds Brigade acts as the main patron and facilitator of the various Shi’a militias and the U.S. military has said that it will release a more detailed breakdown of Iran’s destabilising presence in Iraq in the coming days. Senator Barack Obama, echoing the recommendations originally made in the report by the Iraq Study Group (ISG), however, called for engagement with Iran, saying that given that it was highly unlikely to reverse the Islamic Republic’s entrenched influence, a more engaged approach could prove more constructive in moderating the country’s conduct.
Outlook and Implications
The contents of Petraeus' testimony come as no great surprise, although there will be disappointment across the political spectrum in the United States that he advised against further troop withdrawals. Although the additional surge troops are being removed, the core deployment remains huge and very difficult for the military to bear. The assessment is a blow to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who said earlier this year that he hoped numbers would be down to roughly 100,000 by the end of 2008. The upsurge in violence in Iraq over the past month has dented earlier optimism about the success of the surge and is pushing Iraq back into the political spotlight in the United States. Republican candidate John McCain had hoped to make political capital on the back of the success of the troop surge he championed, but now the gains are looking more fragile. The situation potentially strengthens the Democratic candidates, given their opposition to the war and determination to lay out a timetable for drawing down troops, but they need to tread carefully. They cannot be seen to abandon Iraq and ignore the advice of military commanders, or to undermine U.S. troops in the field. They were clearly mindful of the need to look like responsible and level-headed potential commanders-in-chief. Hillary Clinton faces the additional problem that she originally backed the war and faces accusations of inconsistency. Whoever takes office in January looks set to have some 140,000 troops still out in the field and no exit strategy. There are grounds to hope that the recent upsurge in violence is temporary, but the fragility of the political situation in Iraq remains a grave problem.