Election 2008: Conservative Win in South Korean Legislative Election Paves Way for Reforms

The Grand National Party’s (GNP) sweeping victory in South Korea’s legislative election yesterday has left the conservatives firmly in control of the national assembly after it secured the presidency in December, paving the way for President Lee Myung-bak to push through planned economic reforms. His GNP won 153 seats in the 299-seat parliament, with the main opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) securing a mere 81 seats. It thereby fell short of its target of 100, held to be required to keep the ruling party in check. South Korea’s newly elected parliament will take office on 30 May.

Conservative Divisions

Despite claiming a convincing victory, previous hopes that the GNP could secure a two-thirds majority were dispelled due to Lee’s decreasing popularity following a series of policy blunders and ill-received cabinet nominations, as well as a split in the conservative vote. Long-running divisions within the GNP were made manifest in an open rift ahead of the election, as numerous candidates allied with former GNP chairwoman Park Geun-hye broke away to protest their exclusion from election nomination lists. Lee won the party primary over Park last year by a relatively slim margin, and has since sought to marginalise her allies within the party, which has subsequently remained divided between the two major camps. The breakaway faction known as "the Pro-Park Alliance" won 20 seats, while Park’s faction within the GNP secured some 30 seats, making it a force to be reckoned with as Lee seeks to to push through new reform proposals. Additionally, conservative challenger and former presidential contender Lee Hoi-chang’s Liberal Forward Party (LFP) was successful in obtaining 18 seats, just short of letting him form a parliamentary negotiating group, which requires 20 seats. Smaller left-leaning parties such as the Democratic Labour Party and the New Progressive Party fared poorly, earning five and no seats, respectively. Meanwhile, the election saw the ascent of 25 independents (an unusually high number) winning seats; however, the Pro-Park alliance accounted for the vast majority.

Falling Short of Expectations

Besides internal divisions, the GNP's victory was circumscribed by a record-low voter turnout at 46%. This reflects widespread apathy as the country’s parties have returned to their old ways, with mud-slinging, voter-buying, and an upsurge in regionalism highlighting the immaturity of party politics in the country. The Election Commission’s unusual move to promise vouchers for museums and parks to voters provided they participate in the polls unsurprisingly failed to remedy the situation. The emergence of intra-party and personal feuds in the run up to the election, placing real policy agendas in the background, has been held responsible for this situation, indicating the need for parties to enter a period of consensus-building.

Outlook and Implications

Economic Reform in Sight

The GNP’s victory in the polls has provided President Lee with a strong mandate to implement plans to reinvigorate the economy and streamline the government. The former chaebols (conglomerate) CEO came to power on a pro-business platform, based on his "747 pledge" of increasing annual economic growth to 7% and per-capita income to US$40,000 from US$18,372 last year. Additionally, his objective is to turn South Korea into the seventh-largest economy in the world through the encouragement of increasing business investments, deregulation, the implementation of tax incentives, and pursuing free-trade agreements (FTAs). Such an approach has found resonance with the South Korean electorate at a time when concerns are growing over the country’s position in the regional economy, as it faces a squeeze from rising China's low-cost manufacturing on the one side and Japan’s high-tech economy on the other (see South Korea: 14 December 2007: Conservatives Cement Position as South Korean Presidential Election Nears).

Radical Reform Circumscribed

However, the low voter turnout, the GNP’s failure to obtain a two-thirds majority, and Lee’s decreasing popularity indicated that he may face considerable problems in pushing through more controversial reform proposals, such as the construction of a cross-country canal and educational reform. Having ascended to power on a mandate of delivering economic growth will also make the Lee government vulnerable, as concerns mount that a potential global economic downturn will make him unable to deliver on his pledges.

Unifying South Korea’s Conservatives

Given the internal fracturing of the conservative party in the run-up to both the presidential and legislative elections, Lee now faces the challenge of reunifying it to cement his power base vis-à-vis that of Park, following the open rift between the two prominent party members’ factions. Park won an overwhelming victory in the city of Daegu, where she has a strong support base, while the pro-Park alliance and her GNP faction together won some 50 seats in parliament, testifying to her powerful position. Most members of the break-away pro-Park alliance are expected to rejoin the GNP, with negotiation as regards the terms of this process to follow in the next days. Lee will continue to face challenges as a result of intra-party rivalry, and major realignments on the political scene are expected ahead of the upcoming July deadline for national caucuses, which will see new party leaders picked across the political spectrum. This will intensify rivalry as contenders seek to cement their power bases, making for continued volatility in South Korean party politics.

A Blow to the Liberal Forces