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Same-Day Analysis

GM Posts Increased Q1 Loss, Blames American Axle Strike

Published: 01 May 2008
General Motors has recorded a US$3.3-billion loss for the first quarter, thanks to one-time charges and the loss of 100,000 units of North American production.

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

General Motors has announced its first-quarter 2008 earnings, posting a US$3.3-billion loss on decreased revenues of US$42.7 billion. This compares to a loss of US$42 million in the first quarter of 2007 on revenues of US$43.4 billion.

Implications

As with competitor Ford, GM is doing well everywhere but North America. In addition to decreased demand for the company's big pick-ups and SUVs, GM suffered a significant loss of production of 100,000 units during the quarter thanks to the ongoing strike at American Axle.

Outlook

The ongoing strike will likely combine with GM's voluntary 140,000-unit reduction in truck production for the rest of the year to lower North American revenues significantly. Whether GM can offset that with record gains outside North America remains to be seen.

General Motors (GM) posted its first-quarter 2008 earnings yesterday, announcing a net loss of US$3.3 billion globally on decreased revenues of US$42.7 billion. That compares to a US$42-million loss on revenues of US$43.4 billion in the same period of 2007. “We continue to leverage our global product portfolio to take advantage of tremendous growth in key emerging markets, while at the same time taking the appropriate actions to deal with the challenging economic conditions in the U.S.", GM Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Rick Wagoner said in a statement.

General Motors’ Q1 2008 Financial Results by Region

 

Q1 2008

Q1 2007

% Change

GMNA Revenue (US$bil.)

24.5

28.1

-12.8

GMNA Earnings Before Tax (US$mil.)

 (812.0)

(208.0)

-290.4

GME Revenue (US$bil.)

9.9

8.5

16.5

GME Earnings Before Tax (US$mil.)

75.0

4.0

1,775.0

GMLAAM Revenue (US$bil.)

4.8

3.6

33.3

GMLAAM Earnings Before Tax (US$mil.)

517.0

254.0

103.5

GMAP Revenue (US$bil.)

5.5

4.6

19.6

GMAP Earnings Before Tax (US$mil.)

286.0

143.0

100.0

Global Revenue (US$bil.)

42.7

43.4

-1.6

Global Net Income (US$mil.)

(3,251)

 (42.0)

-7,640.5

However, the loss for the quarter belies some improvements in the North American cost structure and business. Adjusted automotive earnings before taxes were a positive US$392 million, a US$161-million improvement that occurred despite the negative U.S. auto market and the production stoppage due to the ongoing strike at supplier American Axle Manufacturing (AAM). That downturn and loss at GM North America (GMNA) was more than offset by earnings before taxes of US$1 billion in GM Latin America, Africa, and Middle East (GMLAAM), GM Asia Pacific (GMAP), and GM Europe (GME).

Special items dragged GM's total earnings down for the quarter, to the tune of US$2.9 billion. This included a US$1.45-billion charge to record a non-cash partial impairment for the company's equity investment in GMAC, basically an accounting loss. An additional US$731 million was booked to increase GM's liability for estimated net costs associated with its involvement in supplier Delphi's bankruptcy and restructuring. The company booked a further US$324 million towards restructuring actions in North America and Europe, and a US$394-million charge towards non-cash, tax-related valuation allowances related to deferred tax assets in Europe (basically, an accounting adjustment).

In North America, a budding recession and a two-month-long strike at AAM that has shuttered most of the company's truck production seriously affected revenues, which fell from US$28.1 billion in the first quarter of 2007 to US$24.5 billion in the most recent quarter. Nearly 100,000 units of truck production were lost at GMNA, and are unlikely to be made up later this year. In Europe it was a very different story, with revenue up 17% to US$9.9 billion and earnings ringing in at a positive US$75 million. GME posted record sales for the first quarter, with a volume of 572,000 units. GM's Latin America, Africa, and Middle East unit more than doubled its first-quarter earnings from a year ago, with revenue up 33% to US$4.8 billion and earnings coming in at US$517 million. GM Asia Pacific also did well, with revenue up almost 20% to US$5.5 billion and earnings at US$286 million.

Outlook and Implications

GM performed better than Wall Street had anticipated during the first quarter, which sent GM stock soaring during the day's trading yesterday. Overall, the performance was not a surprise in terms of strengths and weaknesses; like Ford, the company is doing well everywhere except North America, posting record sales and revenues in several regions. However, the continued headwinds blowing through the U.S. economy are hurting the company‘s turnaround plan, and the additional trouble caused by the AAM strike seems to be yet another blow to the automaker's bottom line. It is a good thing that GM has worked so hard to integrate its operations and bring far-flung divisions much closer into the fold; without the profitability and support of its global income, its North American results would have dragged GM down even further.

Thus, it seems that GM is actually weathering the AAM strike and concurrent downturn in truck sales relatively well. It recently announced another 140,000-unit reduction in production of its big full-size trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs), on top of the 100,000-plus units of production already lost as a result of the strike. As surmised by Global Insight some weeks ago, the loss of production hit GM's North American revenues severely, contributing to the US$3.6-billion reduction compared with the same period of 2007. Since GM books revenue as a vehicle is completed and rolls off the assembly line, North American revenue is likely to suffer again throughout the year as the company voluntarily reduces production in the wake of an increasingly rapid shift among consumers away from traditional truck segments and towards cars and crossovers.

Internationally, the situation continues to look positive for GM, despite growing competition in the Chinese market. The only major risk to GM internationally is the continually falling dollar; under the current strategy, several models (Saturn Astra, Pontiac G8) are produced overseas and imported into North America, and the current exchange rates mean that these models’ profitability is questionable. Furthermore, the transfer of work to overseas engineering centres may also work against the company because of the exchange rates; it may now have been cheaper to keep that work in North America. However, for the overseas regions themselves, continued growth looks likely, as developing markets such as Russia and India continue to provide solid growth for the company.
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