Voters Fire Warning Shot Against Ruling U.K. Labour Party

Prime Minister Gordon Brown's "substance instead of soundbites" slogan rang hollow at local elections held across England and Wales last Thursday (1 May). Recent policy blunders in the areas of taxation, rescue plans for an ailing private bank, immigration and strikes in the public sector all took their toll on the ruling Labour Party's popularity, resulting in the poorest performance of the party in 40 years of local elections. The Conservative Party, led by David Cameron, turned a page on recent poor performance, snatching the capital, London, from Labour after eight years (see United Kingdom: 2 May 2008: Partial Results Show Disastrous U.K. Local Election Performance by Ruling Labour). The Liberal Democrats, led by the recently elected Nick Clegg, also improved their record, albeit only slightly.

Mission Accomplished?

All leading parties recognised the impact of ailing economic growth rates (1.7% in 2008, - 1.3% since 2007) and inflation of prices of basic commodities on U.K. voters' moods. The three main parties called for "more value for money" policies, which would see the country through the economic downturn and offer a soft landing for nervous citizens. Whenever the U.K. public is in the mood for punishment, they vote for the Conservatives, who know best how to translate domestic insecurities about purchasing power, migration, and crime into manifestos appealing to centrist voters. And indeed the Conservatives performed best at the polls, promising a return to staunchly Tory measures to help the economy recover and increase the quality of life. Their message of "tough love", a mixture of stricter punishment of tax evasion or anti-social behaviour, and greater benefits for law-abiding citizens struck a chord with many feeling hard done by the government.

The Labour party suffered from exposed rifts within the party and a consistent lack of communication with the leading media outlets and supporters on the ground, first and foremost the councillors. Instead of focusing on communicating the benefits of his cabinet's policies and answering uncomfortable questions by the media, Gordon Brown merely reiterated that he was in full control and fell for Cameron's "Punch and Judy" trap by lambasting Cameron directly rather than questioning the latter's policies.

The Conservatives will now claim that they have accomplished the first part of their mission, by winning an impressive number of seats at Thursday's elections. They will most likely be smug about the success of their manifestos at local level, and claim that it is time for Brown to bow out rather than face an even more humiliating defeat at the general elections in 2010.

However, Labour has also understood the need to show more leadership. Brown has come out defiantly, claiming in a BBC interview that he understood the message of the polls and would do more to make current policies a success. The premier also hinted at a reconsideration of looming tax policies, notably regarding the two-pence increase in fuel duty, taking effect late this year. Behind the scenes, the party's leaders are heaving a collective sigh of relief at the fact that these were only local elections. Now that the electorate has vented its anger at the economic downturn and at Labour, many senior figures in the party hope that over the next two years the electorate's anger will turn towards the Conservatives, who now have the electoral advantage but not necessarily the budget to push through many of their policies in each council.

Outlook and Implications

Local elections are the most indicative barometer of voter sentiment to date in the United Kingdom. As voters can focus solely on local, imminent issues, they tend to vote with great disregard for the impact of their choice on the whole country, and favour outsiders and even "taboo" parties. The local elections last week were no exception, and confirmed several uncomfortable truths for Gordon Brown and his party.

However, local elections are not general elections: The outcome of last week's polls will not change the makeup of the Welsh Assembly nor that of the House of Commons. For Labour, the main priority must be to give its policies a "red", socialist touch, soothing the nerves of its core voters, while rekindling its good relations with the more centrist, liberal voters, and winning over the support of undecided—or rather unfazed—voters. In the wake of its fall, the parliamentary Labour party now has to rebuild a good relation with its eyes and ears at the local level. The government may have been stripped of many messengers promoting their policies at local level, but can still count on members of parliament and the media to do the job. This was a warning shot fired by disgruntled voters, who are not convinced of Labour's capacity to deliver on its promises after eleven years in power.

However, the triumphant Conservatives are not home and dry yet. Rather, the warning shot fired at last week's polls has roused Labour headquarters and will certainly translate into a media counter-offensive. With a rather Eurosceptic premier and waning momentum of protests against the Iraq war, the Conservatives will be hell-bent on attacking Labour's domestic policies by incorporating both left-wing criticism—for example of high taxation of low-income earners—and right-wing gripes—for example over crime rates and the impact of immigration on public services.