Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | This is the greatest natural calamity to strike Myanmar in the recent past, claiming the lives of over 15,000 people and damaging the country's already dilapidated infrastructure. |
Implications | Relief operations are likely to be hindered by the military junta's firm grip over the flow of information and restrictions on the movement of international aid groups in the country. |
Outlook | The credibility of the country's constitutional referendum, scheduled for 10 May, will face further pressure as the military junta has pledged to stick to its timetable despite the devastation. Furthermore, internal anger against the regime over the suppression of political freedoms and economic stagnation could be further fuelled if the junta's relief efforts are seen to be lacking. |
Casualties Mount
The casualties from Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar on Friday (2 May), have continued to mount, with Myanmar’s state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper reporting today that more than 15,000 people have died as a result. Nargis hit Myanmar around the mouth of the Ayeywaddy (Irrawaddy) River, 220 km southwest of Yangon (Rangoon), the country’s economic capital and largest city. The most significant devastation occurred along the densely populated rural areas in the low-lying flood plains around the Irrawaddy delta, which is home to 24 million people (half the country’s population). The township of Bogalay in the delta has reported 10,000 casualties alone. Due to its political and economic isolation, Myanmar does not have a significant expatriate population, and so far there have been no reports of foreign causalities. The U.S. State Department has issued a travel warning to U.S. citizens in the country, urging them to leave, as well as deferring all non-essential travel to Myanmar.
Meanwhile, security forces shot dead 36 people at the Insein prison outside Yangon when rioting erupted after the roof of the prison was torn off by the typhoon, according to a statement by the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.
Myanmar is scheduled to hold a constitutional referendum on 10 May, as part of the military junta's "roadmap to democracy" (see Myanmar: 2 May 2008: Sanctions Tightened on Myanmar Ahead of Constitutional Referendum). Despite the devastation, the state-run television reported today that the referendum would go ahead in all but 47 townships (40 in Yangon, 7 in Irrawaddy), with the latter holding the referendum on 24 May.
International Response
Myanmar's reclusive military junta has made a rare appeal for foreign aid, with foreign minister Nyan Win stating yesterday that the government would "welcome help… from other countries". Surin Pitsuwan, secretary-general of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has called for "urgent relief assistance" as per the Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, which was signed in 2005. Thailand airlifted US$400,000 worth of aid today, according to the Thai foreign ministry. Singapore’s foreign ministry stated today that it will provide US$200,000 in aid to Myanmar. The Chinese foreign ministry reported today that it will also send US$1 million in aid, while Japan is set to provide ¥28 million (US$ 270,000) in emergency aid, and South Korea has pledged US$100,000 in aid materials. Meanwhile, the Indian foreign ministry stated yesterday that it will deploy two naval ships from the Indian naval base on Port Blair in the Indian Ocean archipelago of Andaman and Nicobar to carry emergency aid.
Western nations, which have maintained sanctions on the military junta regime, have also pledged aid to Myanmar through international aid agencies in order to avoid dealing directly with the regime. The United States has noted that it will provide US$250,000 in immediate aid through its embassy in Yangon to the World Food Programme (WFP). Additionally, the European Union (EU) released 2 million euro (US$3 million) in initial emergency aid yesterday. Canada announced yesterday that it will provide US$2 million in aid to Myanmar, while France and Netherlands have each released 200,000 euro in initial aid, Germany has sent 500,000 euro, the Czech Republic has pledged 100,000 euro, Norway has offered 10 million kroner (US$1.96 million), and Sweden has stated that it will send generators and other equipment through the UN or Red Cross.
International aid agencies have also stepped up their presence in the country, with the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) deploying five fact-finding missions to the country. The Unosat satellite, which generates images for humanitarian operations, has also been activated, while the WFP has delivered 900 metric tonnes of food to the Irrawaddy delta region and generators to Cambodia, according to a spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, cited by Agence-France Presse (AFP). The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies has also released 122,000 euro (US$189,000) to its chapter in Myanmar. UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon's chief of staff, Vijay Nambiar, has met with Myanmar's UN ambassador, Kyaw Tint Swe, to discuss grant allocations from the UN's US$500-million Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), according to a UN statement. Myanmar’s minister for social welfare, Maung Maung Swe, speaking at a news conference in Yangon today, stated that foreign aid groups "have to negotiate with the foreign ministry and our senior authorities" before conducting operations in the country.
Meanwhile, U.S. first lady Laura Bush yesterday issued a scathing criticism of the military junta's response to the typhoon. She noted that "[Myanmar's] state-run media failed to issue a timely warning to citizens in the storm's path" and that "the response to the cyclone is just the most recent example of the junta's failure to meet its people's basic needs." She also noted that the United States "stands prepared" to provide additional aid to Myanmar. She also called the planned constitutional referendum an attempt "to give false legitimacy to [the military junta’s] continued rule," and appealed to "China, India, and [Myanmar's] fellow ASEAN members to use their influence to encourage a democratic transition." Today, U.S. president George W. Bush signed a law conferring Myanmar's imprisoned pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi with the Congressional Gold Medal, the U.S. government's highest civilian honour. Canada also conferred honorary citizenship to Aung San Suu Kyi today.
Outlook and Implications
The number of casualties is likely to grow in the coming days as rescue workers slowly make their way to remote parts of Myanmar. The country’s dilapidated infrastructure, further damaged by the typhoon, will make relief operations difficult. The junta’s firm grip over the flow of information in the country and mistrust over external intervention are likely to restrict the movement of aid organisations.
Frustration among Myanmar’s population against the junta regime remains high as a result of the suppression of democratic freedoms and the poor state of the economy, which has seen a cut in water supplies and a tripling of food prices, stoking the country’s double-digit inflation (currently 34%). The most recent manifestation of these popular grievances occurred in August-September 2007 when the elimination of fuel subsidies led to popular unrest, which was brutally suppressed by the junta regime. Such unrest could potentially be reignited if the junta’s relief efforts are seen to be lacking. There are already accusations that warnings about the storm were not well reported in the state media, which was focused on propaganda for voting in favour of the constitutional referendum.
The typhoon is also likely to put further pressure on domestic and international food prices given reports of damage to Myanmar’s rice-producing regions, which supply rice to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh—countries that are both experiencing food shortages and price increases. Before the typhoon, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) had forecast that Myanmar would export 500,000 tonnes of rice this year.
The junta has stated that it will continue with its timetable for holding a constitutional referendum on 10 May, and not much hope should be expected from the junta in terms of changing its approach in implementing political reforms. Despite aid contributions by the international community, relations between Myanmar’s junta and the West are likely to remain frosty, as demonstrated by Laura Bush's remarks. Nonetheless, the increased presence of foreign aid workers could increase foreign influences in the country, similar to the way that the international relief operations following the Asian tsunami in December 2004 improved the United States and Australia’s relations with Indonesia and other South-East Asian countries.