Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The current agreement follows a surge in terrorist attacks across Pakistan and clashes between the Pakistani military and militants in the Swat Valley after the military stormed the Red Mosque in the capital, Islamabad, in July 2007. |
Implications | The international community has voiced concerns over the sustainability of the deal, which could allow militants to consolidate their position ahead of intensified attacks in neighbouring Afghanistan. |
Outlook | Coupled with the ongoing political gridlock over the issue of reinstating the country’s deposed Supreme Court judges, the peace process with militant groups presents significant risks to Pakistan’s stability. |
Pakistan’s government secured a peace agreement with pro-Taliban militants in the Swat Valley of the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) yesterday (21 May). Under the terms of the 15-point agreement, the military has agreed to a gradual withdrawal of its troops from the region and the imposition of Islamic (Sharia) law in exchange for the closure of militant training camps, a halt in suicide attacks on government installations and personnel, and the handover of foreign militants.
The ceasefire in Swat follows the military launching a major operation in the region in October 2007, targeting the pro-Taliban militant group Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM of the Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law) led by hardline cleric Maulana Fazlullah (see Pakistan: 27 November 2007: Military Retakes Strategic Peak from Pro-Taliban Rebels in Pakistan). The operations in Swat Valley, which was once a scenic tourist destination, were sparked by the breakdown of a 10-month ceasefire agreement after the military stormed the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July 2007 (see Pakistan: 11 July 2007: Mosque Siege Draws to a Close in Pakistani Capital Following Leader's Death). Fazlullah gained a loyal following after launching a radio station that earned him the nickname “Mullah Radio”. Last month, the Pakistani government released Fazlullah's father-in-law, Sufi Muhammad, from six years in custody.
The new democratically elected coalition government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has adopted a conciliatory approach in dealing with militants in Pakistan’s north-west tribal region (see Pakistan: 23 April 2008: Militants Released as Part of Peace Agreement in Tribal Region of Pakistan). Speaking during his first overseas visit to Egypt for the World Economic Forum for the Middle East, during which he also held his first meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush, Gilani noted on 19 May that his government would only negotiate with tribal elements that disarm and “not have dialogue with extremists or terrorists”.
Sustainable Peace?
The international community has responded with veiled concern to the deal. Speaking during a visit to Afghanistan today, UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Marie Guehenno noted that the deal could "only be judged on the impact it has on security" adding that "we will watch closely the situation in the area concerned and make sure that the situation does not deteriorate on the other side of the border." U.S. State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack stated yesterday that the United States would “reserve judgement” on the deal although he noted that it did not want to see any deal that resulted in militants being able to use the region "for the purposes of planning and launching terrorist attacks." Speaking before a congressional hearing the previous day (20 May), U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte noted that the United States had “some skepticism about (the Pakistani government’s) ability to enforce any such arrangement” and called on the Pakistani government to “proceed cautiously and not accept an outcome that will give extremist elements the ability to use the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area) with impunity to carry out attacks on Pakistan, on Afghanistan, or the United States or the rest of the world.”
The Afghan government was more blunt in its views on the peace agreement. Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesman Sultan Ahmad Baheen stated yesterday (21 May) that any deal with the Taliban “would harm both countries”. This follows a statement by Afghan Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta on 19 May that Pakistan’s “appeasement policy" with the Taliban was "wrong and dangerous”. The Swat Valley is 90 km from the Afghan border. The previous ceasefire agreement negotiated between militants and the Pakistani government in the Waziristan region of the FATA was accompanied by a surge in militant attacks in Afghanistan. NATO noted last week that militant attacks in eastern Afghanistan, which borders Pakistan were up by 52% in April on the same period last year (see Pakistan: 15 May 2008: Peace Process with Militants Regains Momentum in Pakistan).
Political Impasse Grows
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s government continues to face political gridlock over a disagreement between Pakistan’s two ruling political parties, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), over the reinstatement of some 60 Supreme Court judges who were ousted by President Pervez Musharraf last November (see Pakistan: 13 May 2008:Pakistan's Ruling Coalition Fractures amid Disagreement over Reinstatement of Judges). Asif Ali Zardari, the co-chair of the ruling PPP has pledged to table a resolution in parliament over reinstating the country’s deposed Supreme Court judges. This comes as Pakistan is scheduled to hold by-elections for some 30 seats in the national and provincial assemblies on 26 June. Pakistan’s Election Commission made the announcement last week following jockeying over the date. Zardari has been acquitted of corruption and murder charges, which were facilitated by President Musharraf’s issuance of a National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) last year (see Pakistan: 5 March 2008: Corruption Charges Against Head of Pakistan's Largest Secular Party Dropped). Meanwhile, on 15 May the Election Commission ruled that Nawaz Sharif, the head of the PML-N will be allowed to stand in the by-elections next month, despite pending convictions against him. This paves the way for an electoral showdown between the PPP and PML (N), which could result in a fracturing of their coalition if either party performs strongly.
Outlook and Implications
Questions remain regarding the sustainability of the agreement in the Swat Valley. Any agreement that quells hostilities between militants and the Pakistani government but leads to a further radicalisation of the local population and a surge in militant attacks in Afghanistan is not viable. Furthermore, a separate agreement with Baitullah Mehsud, leader of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) based in South Wazirstan, remains under discussion. The peace process with Mehsud, who has been held responsible for the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in December 2007, has regained momentum in recent days following frictions over the Pakistani military presence in the region (see Pakistan: 15 May 2008: Peace Process with Militants Regains Momentum in Pakistan). Adding to these concerns, is the ongoing political gridlock created by the issue of reinstating the country’s Supreme Court judges. While PML (N) has pledged to continue to support the PPP-led government, the present arrangement may be unsustainable as both parties look to face-off in by-elections scheduled for next month.