UN’s Nuclear Watchdog Says Iran Withholding Information about Warheads

Charged Language

Given International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohammed El-Baradei’s previous attempts to stick to diplomatic language, the tone of yesterday's report clearly reinforced the agency’s critical view on the nature of Iranian co-operation. Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports El-Baradei as saying that the IAEA "is continuing to assess the information and explanations provided by Iran…However, at this stage, Iran has not provided the agency with all the information, access to documents and access to individuals necessary to support Iran's statements." The IAEA head clearly blames a lack of co-operation from the Iranian side for his inability to report any tangible success since the last report.

Adding that the agency "is of the view that Iran may have additional information, in particular on high explosives testing and missile-related activities, which could shed more light on the nature of these alleged studies and which Iran should share with [the] agency", El-Baradei unequivocally puts the onus on the Iranians to start to dispel the allegations. Previous reports have not challenged the Iranians in as much detail, but have rather tried to take the middle ground in the dispute, where the United States—with some assistance from the United Kingdom and France—has been the one to take a tough stance against the Iranian government. El-Baradei's choice of language indicates that he clearly views the Iranians as continuing to stall the process, while running out of excuses and explanations. Indeed, the Iranian reaction to the report was telling, with the country's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, saying that the report vindicated the Iranians, showing that 'all questions are now answered".

The Battlefield

At the core of the allegations is intelligence information handed to the IAEA by several sources—but chiefly understood to be emanating from the United States—indicating the existence of an Iranian nuclear-weapons programme. Although nothing in these allegations proves that this programme is ongoing—indeed even U.S. intelligence agencies have estimated that it was halted sometime in 2003—Iran seems to be unwilling to confirm its existence or to shed light on the project and the parts of it acquired through illegal intelligence or black-market operations. This has given way to U.S.-led allegations that Iran might have frozen its programme for the moment, given its political and economical cost, but could be reserving the option to revive it sometime in the future. The IAEA's more combative language means that Iran must now provide the agency with "substantive" information in order to convince the international community of its nuclear programme's peaceful nature.

Iran has allegedly conducted nuclear-related, high-explosive studies, as well as pursued nuclear-weapon-related studies within its missile programme—design studies of missile re-entry vehicles allegedly designed to carry nuclear warheads are part of the information found on a Iranian laptop reportedly seized by U.S. forces in northern Iraq (see Iran: 4 May 2008: UN Security Council Tightens Iran Sanctions, Complicating Oil and Gas Developments and Trade). As such, the IAEA report singles out details that needed to be addressed by Iran in a much more outspoken way. The agency's patience seems to have run out following what seem to be several months of complete Iranian refusal to discuss these matters in depth.

An overarching—and less opaque—reason for the IAEA's frustration is Iran's well-documented flouting of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), by continuing to enrich uranium. Iran's number of active uranium-producing centrifuges has now risen to 3,500, and while this is well below some propagandist Iranian statements of late, the agency did add that Iran's target of operating 6,000 centrifuges "within months" looks achievable. With this component of Iran's nuclear programme being most easily quantifiable and proven, United Nations (UN) sanctions have continued to be focused on punishing Iran for its uranium enrichment, something which it now has continued reason to do. While reports over the last six months or so have showed that Iran is failing to run the centrifuges at rates close to their capacity, experiencing continued technical problems, the number of operated centrifuges are nevertheless now well over what once was dubbed a "red line"—3,000 centrifuges—with the capacity to enrich sufficient uranium quantities for one atomic bomb in one year’s time.

Outlook and Implications

This latest and more robust offering on Iran will step up efforts to slap a new round of international sanctions on the Islamic Republic, targeting its already-starved financial sector. The IAEA’s latest offering will at the very least sow fresh doubts about the peaceful intent of Iran’s nuclear programme, dragging the agency into a more politically charged battleground. The report has shown that Iran continues to flout international will and, despite three rounds of sanctions and the threat of more to come, remains resolutely committed to enriching uranium. With the country's peaceful intent now in fresh doubt, international efforts against Iran will now step up a notch further.

Unlike previous IAEA reports, often careful to strike a positive and optimistic middle path between the two sides, there really is precious little for Iran to hold on to in this far more damning report than perhaps ever before from the agency. This is further underlined by Iran's initial official reactions being virtually detached from the report's findings, merely repeating its mantra of late that the allegations against it are falsifications and conspiracies, while its co-operation with the IAEA is productive and successful.

For the U.S.-led anti-Iranian front, there will be plenty to seize on, and given recent days' increasing hints of a new concerted push for further sanctions, the work on new sanctions texts are likely to be started in June. This will initially serve as a good pressure-raising backdrop to fresh efforts by the European Union (EU)'s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, to run an incentive package past the Iranians one last time. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, however, seems far more intent on stoking his country's conflict with the international community in order to deflect criticism of his domestic policy shortcomings from an increasingly critical parliament, than on entering into a grand bargain with the West. Hence, the U.S.-led group is likely to use the coming week's diplomatic efforts—together with this IAEA report—as evidence of Iran's unevenness, with further sanctions looking increasingly likely following the summer vacation season, perhaps as early as in September.