Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Political and security tensions are mounting in the run-up to 27 June 2008 second round of the presidential election. |
Implications | Any reduction in the provision of food and/or medical aid in Zimbabwe will have a detrimental affect on the already disadvantaged Zimbabwean population. |
Outlook | A government of national unity has been proffered by the third presidential candidate, Simba Makoni, and others as a solution to the current violence, but conditions for such an association between the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) are non-existent. |
The Zimbabwean government has dramatically radicalised its stance against non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and aid groups operating in Zimbabwe only three days after ordering Care International and Adventist Development and Relief Agency to halt operations on suspicion of interfering in the political process. The two NGOs were accused of campaigning for the opposition MDC. Yesterday (5 June), Social Welfare Minister Nicholas Goche accused a number of NGOs of "breaching the terms and conditions of their registration", the BBC reports, and now NGOs wishing to operate in the country are required to reapply for accreditation and commit to refraining from interfering in domestic politics. Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga told Agence France-Presse (AFP) today, "As we speak there are no NGOs ... they were involved in political activities and behaving like political parties when they were supposed to complement government efforts."
The NGO ban was closely followed yesterday by a diplomatic spat, which has led to high-level British and U.S. diplomatic protests. A convoy of three vehicles—two British and one American—containing diplomats from both countries was halted and detained by Zimbabwean police for over five hours in the town of Bindura. According to U.S. Ambassador James McGee, who was not in the vehicle, police slashed the tyres on the vehicle, confiscated telephones and beat up the driver, while war veterans threatened to burn the vehicles with the passengers inside unless the diplomats accompanied them to a nearby police station. Zimbabwe's top diplomat in the United Kingdom has been called to the U.K. Foreign Ministry to account for the incident. Meanwhile, Bright Matonga has taken a characteristically robust stance in defending Zimbabwean actions. Matonga alleges that far from engaging in information gathering, as U.K. Foreign Secretary David Miliband has stated, the diplomats had been handing out opposition leaflets and were on their way to address an unsanctioned MDC gathering in Bindura, which is a ruling ZANU-PF stronghold, and refused to pull over when approached by the police. Zimbabwe will be lodging a strong protest with the U.S. ambassador, Matonga added.
Events in Zimbabwe in anticipation of the 27 June second round of the presidential election are virtually entirely negative. Yesterday, the MDC alleged that another five of its members were killed by ZANU-PF militia in Masvingo province. This comes on top of another 58 killed in politicised violence since 29 March 2008 and the tens of thousands that have been displaced. No-go areas, which disappeared in the run-up to the March 2008 harmonised elections, have now reappeared and more are being added. The ruling party is also accusing MDC activists of targeting its supporters in the rural areas and recently claimed that two ZANU-PF women's league members were allegedly killed by MDC supporters on 31 May 2008. In the current climate, various actors have noted that there are no conditions for free and fair elections. Third presidential candidate and runner-up Simba Makoni, who pulled 8.3% of the vote, has reiterated his calls for a government of national unity as an alternative to fresh elections (see Zimbabwe: 30 May 2008: Election 2008: Zimbabwe Presidential Runner-Up Withholds Support for Incumbent and Opposition Candidate). However, even Makoni concedes that at present positions are extremely polarised and drifting still further apart. While both might accept a unity government with amenable members of the other party, neither at present appears willing to accept a junior position and both will be loathe to sit alongside the other's totemic figures, Morgan Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe. The third possibility for a government of national unity, whereby Makoni or some other third party heads the caretaker government, also lacks support at this point.
Meanwhile, President Mugabe has reportedly indicated that he would accept a high-ranking UN envoy to help organise free and fair elections following a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon at the ongoing World Food Summit. However, as is often said, an election is a process and not an event. The presence of a high-level UN envoy, although appreciated by civil society and the opposition, is not enough to address the evident shortcomings highlighted above, in addition to which there is the current requirement that all local observers reapply for accreditation to observe the 27 June 2008 polls. It is therefore possible that groups that have fallen foul of the current administration in the past few weeks, such as the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network, whose participation would have given the results some credibility, will not be able to contribute to the next round.
Outlook and Implications
The attractiveness of the government of national unity option increases in parallel to the degree of politicised violence, especially for the international community, which evidently still holds some sway in Zimbabwean events. The release of Tsvangirai after only eight hours of detention is rumoured to have occurred only after South African President Thabo Mbeki called Harare to express his alarm (see Zimbabwe: 5 June 2008: Election 2008: Opposition Presidential Candidate Temporarily Detained in Zimbabwe). However, for all that, a government of national unity is not yet a practicable solution.
The suspension of aid groups and NGOs operating in Zimbabwe pending re-registration will put additional pressure on a population of which large numbers are already dependent on assistance. For example, an estimated 80% of the labour force is unemployed at a time of over 1,000,000% inflation, life expectancy has slipped to 36 years, and the UN World Food Programme estimates that 4 million will need food assistance this year. The impact is muted somewhat by the fact that it is a suspension and not an outright ban. Nevertheless, to the extent that the NGOs and aid groups are absent, provision will fall to the state amid accusations of politicised allocation.