EU Leaders Consider Next Move Following Irish Rejection of Reform Treaty

On Friday (13 June), electoral officials announced that Irish voters had rejected the referendum on the controversial European Union (EU) Reform Treaty (also known as the Lisbon Treaty) by 53.4% (862,415 votes) to 46.6% (752,451 votes), with a turnout of 53.1%. Following the announcement, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Brian Cowen stated that his government "accept[ed] and respect[ed] the verdict of the Irish people" and that "Ireland ha[d] no wish to halt the progress" of the treaty, according to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). The president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, stated that he did not interpret the “no“ vote as a vote against the EU. Meanwhile, supporters of the “no“ camp celebrated their victory; one of its spearheads, Declan Ganley of the lobby group Libertas, claimed that the outcome was "democracy in action" and that Europe needed to "listen to the voice of the people”.

There were several reasons for the rejection of the treaty. The “no“ camp consisted of very different groups, ranging from staunch conservatives and religious organisations to supporters of low tax rates and anti-war and anti-abortion campaigners. Moreover, those in favour of the treaty failed to co-operate in the campaign for a “yes” vote. The leading parties—the ruling Fianna Fáil (FF) and its junior coalition partners the Progressive Democrats (PD) and the Greens—and opposition party Labour left it late to unite on the issue. However, what ultimately won it for the “no“ camp was the highly technical nature of the text. Many voters did not understand the document and thus had to rely on others’ interpretations of it.

Return to Sender

Legally, the outcome does not have any consequences for the Irish government or representatives of the EU. However, politically, some leaders may now wonder about the commitment of Cowen and his cabinet to the EU as the government will want to show voters that it has taken their concerns on board.

Supporters of the Reform Treaty have accepted the outcome of the Irish referendum, but attention now turns to what happens next. A group of 862,415 EU citizens, out of a total of 495 million, have forced a reconsideration of the strategy for future EU policy-making. This is the second time that Irish voters have dealt a blow to an EU treaty, but the circumstances are slightly different. The Nice Treaty was rejected in 2001 (before being passed in a second vote in 2002) despite an economic boom in Ireland, and before the contentious EU enlargement of 2004 had taken place. This latest “no” vote has come at a time of falling economic growth rates and tax receipts, while the government’s popularity ratings are not exactly at an all-time high; in such a climate, the majority of voters elected to maintain the status quo rather than opt for change in the form of the Reform Treaty. Cowen now needs to tackle the predominantly domestic concerns highlighted by the “no” vote while taking part in the EU talks.

The Taoiseach seems to be calling for the one thing the EU does not have at this stage: time. According to the Irish Times, Cowen stated that there was no "obvious solution" to the current situation, but most EU leaders are determined to ensure that the ratification process is not derailed by the Irish “no“ vote. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are particularly keen to find a swift solution to the problem, and they hope to win round fellow EU leaders to their way of thinking. Merkel fought hard to get the EU back on track during Germany's presidency of the bloc in 2007 after the Reform Treaty’s predecessor, the Constitutional Treaty, had been rejected in referenda in France and the Netherlands in 2005. France is taking over the EU presidency from July to December and its agenda is already packed as the bloc prepares to install an EU president in January 2009 and gears up for a major reshuffle of the Commission and the European Parliament later next year. Sarkozy had hoped to focus attention on his brainchild, the Mediterranean Union, as well as Turkish EU membership, but it now seems that he will have to devote far more attention to coming up with a strategy for the way forward on the EU Reform Treaty.

Outlook and Implications

Many reports in the media have given the impression that the Irish referendum result has sounded the death knell for the EU, or at least plunged it into a state of paralysis. However, the EU has evolved since the “no“ votes in previous referenda, starting with the rejection of the Maastricht Treaty by the Danish electorate in 1993. Indeed, the Commission in particular has weathered a few storms like this in the past, most recently in 2005, and the EU will therefore not descend into chaos. It is true that progress has been stalled—the inauguration of an EU president in 2009 is not certain at this stage, while the introduction of an EU foreign minister and a trimmed-down Commission from 27 to 18 members is not assured. However, the EU will for now carry on as usual thanks to the documents it already has in place—notably the Nice Treaty—while it decides on a longer-term strategy.