Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | This is the deadliest attack to hit the Afghan capital since the Taliban regime was ousted in 2001. |
Implications | The attack will serve to further challenge the effectiveness of Afghan and international security operations in the country, as well as potentially stepping up pressure on the role of Pakistan in the Afghan insurgency. |
Outlook | Today’s attack reaffirms the congruence between security in Afghanistan and the wider region, as well the need to address the insecurities of Afghanistan’s neighbours in order to find lasting security in Afghanistan. |
More than 40 people were killed and 140 injured in suicide car-bomb attack on the Indian Embassy in the Afghan capital, Kabul, today. Most of the casualties were Afghan civilians queuing for visas at the Embassy. The Indian ambassador to Afghanistan, Jayan Prasad, who was not injured in the attack, also noted that four Indian nationals, including India's military attaché, a diplomat and two paramilitary guards, were killed, and the Afghan Interior Ministry confirmed that some 10 Afghan police officers, who were providing security for the Embassy, were also killed. The adjacent Indonesian Embassy was also damaged, with two Indonesian diplomats suffering injuries.
The Indian government issued a statement, noting that "such acts of terror will not deter us from fulfilling our commitments to the government and people of Afghanistan", while a spokesman for the Afghan Foreign Ministry stated that “the enemies of Afghanistan and India's relationship cannot hamper our relationship by conducting such attacks". While the Ministry did not specify who such “enemies” were, it is believed to be referring to the Taliban and India’s long-time rival, Pakistan. A spokesman for the Taliban denied responsibility for the attack.
India-Pakistan ‘Great Game’
This attack is indicative of the long-standing competition for influence between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan. India has maintained a close relationship with the remnants of the Northern Alliance, which it supported in its war with the Taliban during the 1990s, as well as with the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai. It has also supported numerous aid and infrastructure projects in the country—India is the fifth-largest bilateral aid donor in Afghanistan, having provided US$750 million for projects covering hydro-electricity, power transmission, road construction, agriculture, industry, telecommunications, education, and health. While India does not maintain a military presence in Afghanistan, it has deployed approximately 300 Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) personnel to Afghanistan to provide security for some 400 Indian Border Roads Organisation (BRO) personnel engaged in development and reconstruction work in Afghanistan (see: Afghanistan-India: 14 April 2008: Attack on Road Workers Highlights Precarious Role of India in Afghanistan).
Beyond the competition for strategic influence, India has also looked to Afghanistan as a means to access resources and markets in Central Asia. Notably, India is working on the 218-kilometre Zaranj-Delaram highway construction project, which will link land-locked Afghanistan with deep-sea ports in Iran, as well as allowing India to bypass Pakistan in order to trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia through Iran’s Chabahar port. India has also joined the Trans-Afghan or Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project, which will transport natural gas from the Dauletabad field in Turkmenistan to India through Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to meet India’s burgeoning energy needs.
Pakistan has traditionally looked to Afghanistan to provide it with “strategic depth” in its competition with India through its links to the Taliban regime. As such, it has previously viewed Indian initiatives in Afghanistan with suspicion as part of a policy of containment.
Allegations of U.S.-inflicted Civilian Casualties
Meanwhile, 22 civilians from a wedding party were killed in a U.S air-strike yesterday (6 July) in the Deh Bala district of the eastern Nangarhar province, according to a statement by the district governor, Hamisha Gul. This follows a claim that another 16 civilians were killed in a U.S. air-strike in Nuristan province on 4 July. The United States has rejected both allegations, noting that causalities from both air-strikes were militants, while Afghan President Hamid Karzai has ordered an investigation. According to the UN, almost 700 Afghan civilians have been killed in insurgency-related violence during 2008, of which 255 were killed by international coalition operations.
Afghan, International Security Presence in South under Pressure
Meanwhile, a string of roadside bombs has targeted Afghan and international security forces in southern Afghanistan in recent days. Four Afghan police personnel were killed and another seven injured in a roadside bomb in the town of Tirin Kot, capital of the southern Uruzgan province, today, while another three policemen were killed and another four injured in a roadside bomb in the Zharai district of Kandahar province. Yesterday (6 July) the police chief of Nawa district in Ghazni province was also shot dead. Meanwhile, an Afghan MP Habibullah Jan was shot dead by militants in the Zharai district of Kandahar province on 4 July, making him the 10th MP to be killed in Afghanistan since parliamentary elections were held in 2005.
A Canadian soldier was also killed following a roadside bomb attack in southern Kandahar province today. Meanwhile, seven people including three German nationals from the European Union Police Mission (EUPOL) were injured in a suicide car bomb attack outside the town of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan.Some 122 international troops have been killed in Afghanistan in 2008, (most of whom were killed by roadside bombs), of which 49 were killed in June 2008, making it the bloodiest month for coalition forces in Afghanistan and the second-consecutive month during which casualties in Afghanistan have exceeded that of Iraq.
Amidst the surge in militant attacks in southern Afghanistan, the United States announced on 3 July that it was extending the stay of 2,200 marines of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit by one month to a total of eight months. Along with another 1,000 marines responsible for training the Afghan army, the marine deployment to southern Helmand province in January 2008 was sent to reinforce the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in the restive south of the country.
Outlook and Implications
The decision to extend the stay of the U.S. marine presence in the south of the country is indicative of the precarious security situation in Afghanistan. International coalition forces have attributed the surge in casualties to the increase in the ISAF presence in the country to 53,000 troops from 33,000 only 18 months ago. However, these growing casualties have also been fuelled by a Taliban resurgence and shift in tactics, as militants have moved away from direct military confrontations toward resorting to increasingly bold asymmetrical tactics, employing suicide and roadside bombs to attack soft and symbolic targets. This was illustrated with an attempted assassination on Karzai during a military parade in Kabul in April 2008 and a militant raid on a prison in Kandahar in June 2008 (see Afghanistan: 16 June 2008: Massive Prison Breakout in Afghanistan by Taliban Insurgents Sparks War of Words with Pakistanand 28 April 2008: Parade-Ground Assassination Bid on President Karzai Shakes Confidence in Afghan Security Situation). There has been a marked increase in the number of suicide bombings in the country from 21 in 2005 to 160 in 2007, while attacks employing improvised explosive devices (IEDs) exceeded 500 in 2007. The fact that today’s attack struck the Afghan capital, which was regarded as secure compared to the restive south, will serve to further challenge the effectiveness of Afghan and international coalition operations in the country. Finally, allegations of civilian casualties inflicted by U.S. or ISAF operations threaten to further undermine the success of international coalition operations by fuelling calls for the withdrawal of the international military presence and potentially raising support for the Taliban insurgency.
This surge in militant attacks has been accompanied by an increasingly conciliatory approach by the Pakistani government in dealing with militants in its north-west tribal region (see Pakistan: 22 May 2008: Peace Agreement Concluded between Militants and Government in Pakistan). While the Pakistani military has stepped up operations in the tribal region in recent weeks, today’s attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which was the bloodiest attack to hit the Afghan capital since the fall of the Taliban regime, may bring renewed focus on the role of Pakistan in Afghanistan (see Pakistan: 20 June 2008: Pro-Taliban Militants Withdraw from Ceasefire Agreement as Military Launches Offensive in North-West Pakistan),. It also reaffirms the congruence between security in Afghanistan and the wider region, as well as the need to address insecurities by Afghanistan’s neighbours in order to find lasting security for the country.