Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Group of Eight (G8) summits present a key opportunity for leaders to get together and discuss current international problems; they rarely produce concrete agreements, but they are valuable in clarifying the lie of the land and building confidence. |
Implications | This week's summit did produce a landmark agreement on climate change and progress on Zimbabwe sanctions, but differences were plain to see over issues such as U.S. missile defence plans. |
Outlook | There has been a noticeable international shift on climate change in recent months, even within the famously sceptical U.S. administration, but with policy options so hard to swallow and with faltering economies leaving so little policy leeway, early progress looks unlikely. |
Climate Change Milestone
Acknowledging that climate change presents "one of the great global challenges of our time", leaders of the Group of Eight (G8) and a range of key developing countries have today committed themselves to deep long-term cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. The G8—which comprises the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Canada, and Russia—pledged yesterday to “move toward a carbon-free society” and adopted a goal of cutting emissions in half by 2050. The statement did not say whether this reduction would be in comparison to 1990 levels (those upon which the Kyoto Protocol is based), or current levels. This was followed up by a vaguer declaration endorsing deep cuts from a wider meeting held earlier today on the fringes of the summit. This comprised 41 countries (including the 25 EU members), which account for 80% of global emissions. One key reason for the breakthrough was signals from fast-developing economies such as China and India that they are willing to adopt targets of their own. The United States in particular has repeatedly insisted that there is little point introducing tough targets if the cuts will be outweighed by increased pollution from non-participating economies. The developing countries maintain that their emissions are still very small per capita and that they have less capacity to make such cuts than do wealthy nations. Over a century of heavy pollution by the latter countries has created today's climate problems. Even if the likes of China now accept that they must make cuts of their own, they continue to insist that it is the wealthy countries who must make the deepest cuts—they have called for the G8 to commit to a much more ambitious long-term target. China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico today came together to call for developed countries to commit to 40% cuts over 1990 levels by 2020, and as much as 95% by 2050.
In the absence of intermediate targets, there is certainly a danger that successive governments will put off the tough decisions required to slash emissions. The G8 commitment does nonetheless signal a shifting political landscape, and the United Nations climate conference in Copenhagen (Denmark) next year may manage to secure bolder, and shorter-term, targets. The extent of progress will depend to a large degree on the position adopted by the next U.S. president. Both candidates have called for a more vigorous policy than there has been under George W. Bush, but it remains to be seen whether they really follow through with this and convince Congress. Bush himself is trying to salvage his legacy on climate change—he is a recent convert after years spent resisting the Kyoto framework and casting doubts over scientists' findings. He has yet to endorse tough domestic policies, but he is helping to lay the groundwork for a more activist successor. This is the first time that Bush has been open to the United States signing up to an international treaty with binding targets. At present it seems Democrat Barack Obama would be the bolder president on climate change—his rival, Republican John McCain, has tempered his environmental message with strident calls for greater domestic oil production. Soaring oil prices are complicating the climate change debate: on one hand they are helping tame hydrocarbon consumption and are making alternative energies more persuasive, but on the other hand there is great pressure to ramp up oil production and meet rising demand.
Other Issues at the Summit
- Zimbabwe: The controversial and violent election in Zimbabwe was high on the summit agenda thanks to the efforts of the United Kingdom and the United States (see Zimbabwe: 9 July 2008: G8 Summit Clears Way for Sanctions Against Zimbabwe). Bush adopted a tough line and has helped pave the way for an international arms embargo and sanctions. However, the summit exposed differences between the G8 and key countries in Africa, who have favoured a more softly-softly approach. The African Union has pressed Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe to accept a power-sharing solution, but it has rejected sanctions. African issues, including Zimbabwe, had an unusually high profile at the summit thanks to the presence of an "Africa outreach" group of seven leaders, from Tanzania, Algeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa. Bush has made African issues a key priority for his foreign policy, in particular fighting major diseases such as AIDS. He pressed hard at the meeting for leaders to live up to aid pledges.
- Food Prices and Biofuels: Soaring food prices were discussed at the summit, but the statements that emerged do not differ significantly from those issued after other recent summits. Developing countries pressed their richer counterparts to slash their agricultural subsidies and introduce a more efficient global agricultural market. There were also signs of movement at the summit on biofuels, with European countries indicating that they are reconsidering their subsidies. Biofuels are being increasingly blamed for diverting land away from food production and driving up prices. Abandoning biofuels is, however, a major setback for the governments' efforts to reduce foreign oil dependency and carbon emissions.
- Missile Defence: New Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who made his G8 debut, served notice that he will not mute Russian resistance to the United States' efforts to build a missile defence shield in Europe. This hampered Bush's efforts to reach out to his new counterpart. Tensions increased further when the United States ignored Russian complaints and signed an accord yesterday with the Czech Republic. Assuming ratification by a hostile Czech parliament, this would allow the United States to deploy part of the missile shield on Czech territory. Russia warned that the accord could lead to a military response. The United States argues that the shield is not designed to undermine Russian defence capabilities, but instead to protect against attacks from unstable countries in the Middle East and Central/South Asia (see Czech Republic: 9 July 2008: Czech Defence Deal with U.S. Triggers Row with Russia).
Outlook and Implications
G8 leaders were faced with an even more wide-ranging and pressing set of global issues than usual when they met in Japan. It was unrealistic to expect that they would come away with concrete measures to address everything from the struggling world economy to the food crisis, and clashes over issues such as missile defence were inevitable. The deal on climate change does represent a significant achievement, and it is clear there is a sea-change under way among countries such as the United States and China on the issue. However, it remains doubtful that they are willing in the short term to take the kind of tough decisions that are required to meet the long-term target. All eyes will be on next year's climate-change meeting in Copenhagen, and whether more concrete medium-term pledges are wrung out of the governments.
The summit was also notable for the absence of violence. In the past G8 summits have been besieged by protestors, championing issues ranging from anti-globalisation to climate change. However, during the current decade such movements have lost some of their momentum and the summits have tended to be much more peaceful. Security arrangements have also been greatly tightened, partly on account of heightened terrorism fears after the attacks of 11 September 2001 in the United States. There were very few protestors in the northern Japanese resort of Toyako, and almost no trouble. Police far outnumbered activists. The location of the summit will have helped deter many regular protestors, a large proportion of whom are European. Several tens of thousands turned up at last year's G8 summit in Germany.