Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Prachanda's accession to the premiership to lead Nepal's first post-royal government this week is the culmination of the CPN-M's transformation from a rebel group to a legitimate political force. |
Implications | The election of a premier spells an end to four months of political paralysis, paving the way for the formation of a Maoist-led coalition government while putting the reform agenda of the former rebels to the test. |
Outlook | The way the CPN-M has handled its new-found political power signals pragmatism, with the party's revolutionary zeal set to be circumscribed by its reliance on coalition partners. It will, however, come under pressure to deliver on pledges made and radical segments may feel that the political route taken has diluted its aims. |
From Rebel Leader to Prime Minister
The leader of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M), Pushpa Kamal Dahal (better known as "Prachanda") was yesterday sworn in as prime minister of Nepal's new republican government, paving the way for government to be formed some four months after the rebels-turned-political party won a sweeping victory in the Constituent Assembly election. Prachanda was sworn in at a ceremony presided over by newly elected president Ram Baran Yadav and attended by a number of foreign diplomats, pledging to "remain faithful to the sovereign nation of Nepal". The former rebel leader won an overwhelming victory in premiership election held in the Constituent Assembly on Friday (15 August) after securing the backing of the third- and fourth-largest parties in the Constituent Assembly, the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF), respectively, in a written seven-point agreement. This provided him with the required two-thirds majority in the Constituent Assembly.
The election of Prachanda, who led the decade-long Maoist People's War against the former royalist government, spells an end to four months of political deadlock caused by haggling between the political parties over forming a viable coalition government, with established parties such as the Nepali Congress (NC) being reluctant to cede power to the former rebels. The premiership election came about after the parties failed to establish a coalition government including the NC, which had demanded control of the Ministry of Defence. This was a concession that the Maoists were not willing to deliver on given the power held of the National Army (NA), with which the CPN-M is hoping to integrate its own People's Liberation Army (PLA) in due course.
Forming Government
The development is expected to be followed by the formation of cabinet within the next couple of days, including members of some of the CPN-M's coalition partners. The ruling coalition led by the CPN-M will be made up of the CPN-UML, the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, the Jan Morcha, and the Nepal Sadbhavana Party. The coalition partners have drawn up a common minimum programme that includes measures to consolidate the peace process that has been under way since 2006, improving the poor security situation in the country, integrating the PLA with the NA, and restructuring the state, according to general secretary of the CPN-UML Jhala Nath Khanal, cited by Bloomberg.
Outlook and Implications
Putting the Reform Agenda to the Test
Prachanda's ascent to the premiership to lead Nepal's first post-royal government this week is the culmination of the CPN-M's transformation from a rebel group to a legitimate political force. Once a government has been formed, the stage will be set for putting the Maoists' ambitious reform agenda to the test. Its party manifesto promulgates several revolutionary policy objectives, including the abolition of the 240-year old Hindu monarchy—an objective fulfilled in May—and the redistribution of land from the country’s powerful landlords to the poor. Additionally, it has pledged to institute a federal structure decentralising power to the grassroots, reforming the bureaucracy, and restructuring the NA into which its forces are meant to be integrated under the peace deal. These revolutionary policies threaten to expose deep-seated conflicts, raising concern among established Nepalese elites. Although the CPN-M is now Nepal’s largest party, it does not hold an overall majority and will therefore have to reach a series of compromises as it seeks to deliver on its radical reform pledges, which are set to temper their revolutionary seal.
Challenges in the Security Sphere
Nepal's new Maoist-led government will face significant challenges in the security sphere, which will have to be comprehensively addressed for stability to take root. This is not least the case for the integration of Maoist People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the NA. Under the 23-point agreement, the interim government is to begin the process of integrating the former Maoist combatants and pay them regular wages. The ex-combatants are currently monitored in camps under UN auspices and their rehabilitation is considered a key future security question. The CPN-M leadership has pressed the government to subsume their fighters into the country’s armed forces, but this has been met with resistance from the army and numerous politicians, as well as external players such as the United States, which have regarded it as in their interests to maintain a strong army should the Maoists return to conflict. A comprehensive plan acceptable to the various parties for the PLA's integration into the national army is as such yet to be devised. This process is set to be complicated by reluctance on both sides, and urgent security sector reform aimed at making the army a more democratically accountable entity will not come easily. Meanwhile, the law and order situation remains poor throughout Nepal and the country’s security institutions, including the police, suffer from serious morale issues. They lack the capacity required to deal with the security situation at hand, and organised crime has as a result become rampant, presenting the new Maoist-led government with an array of fresh challenges. The security situation is notably poor in the southern Terai region, where armed insurgencies erupted in 2007. Although demands for greater autonomy may be partly addressed politically following the election of 72 Madhesi candidates to the Constituent Assembly, the political agreement to be carved out is unlikely to satisfy all parties to the conflict.
A Pragmatist Maoist Revolution Ahead
The way the CPN-M has so far handled its new-found political power signals pragmatism rather than a doctrinaire commitment to textbook Maoism. Prachanda has in the past emphasised how Maoism must be adapted to Nepal’s unique conditions, and a number of factors are set to constrain the CPN-M’s radicalism. Firstly, it has not obtained an outright majority and will have to govern in coalition with established parties such as the NC and the CPN-UML. On the economic front, it has committed to working within capitalist structures, not least to deliver on its goal of providing poverty alleviation by capitalist means. A commitment to engagement with India, as well as the option of relying more on Chinese aid, is set to provide for continued trade and foreign investment.
Meanwhile, the fact that the CPN-M has obtained a significant stake in the political order is likely to aid in marginalising revolutionary sections of the party, favouring the pursuit of power via the use of force. This is set to remain the case as long as the political route continues to yield results, with the former rebel movement aiming to become considered a legitimate political player. However, as the CPN-M will see itself forced to water its agenda down in the name of political compromise, some of its original constituency may well become alienated, and subsequently look for more radical parties to represent its interests. The environment in which it will have to implement its reform agenda is meanwhile set to be characterised by immediate pressures resulting from soaring food and fuel prices, with this adding to the already formidable challenge of establishing viable democratic structures, allowing for inclusion of groups long marginalised under the previous political order.