Peace Process Shattered in Southern Philippines After Rebels Declare "All-Out War"

An Islamist rebel commander leading a hard-line faction of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) has declared "all-out war" against the Philippine government in Mindanao, southern Philippines. Abdurahman Macapaar, also known as Commander Bravo, said his men were Mujahideen, and were willing to fight the army to the death. In an incendiary radio broadcast over the Radio Mindanao Network he said: "We are prepared to trade fire with them until we are decimated. If they cannot finish us, we will finish them. We are prepared to kill, we are prepared to be killed."

Commander Bravo and another hard-line separatist faction leader of the MILF, Umbra Kato, have repeatedly staged attacks against the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and civilians, despite an ongoing peace process with the government and a ceasefire that was signed in 2003. Over the last week, the two rebel commanders led around 1,500 MILF rebels to attack and occupy 20 villages in North Cotabato province in Mindanao. The ensuing violence between the rebels and the military displaced over 160,000 people, causing an acute humanitarian crisis. Renewed fighting flared on Monday in Lanao del Norte. This most recent spate of violence was sparked in response to the Philippine Supreme Court blocking a peace deal that would have seen an expansion of the Muslim autonomous area in Mindanao to be controlled by MILF.

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front

The MILF, which is currently believed to have around 12,000 members, has long been campaigning for an autonomous Islamic state in the southern part of the Philippines. The area it seeks to control is called the Bangsamoro, and includes Mindanao, the Sulu archipelago, Basilan, and neighbouring islands. The region is primarily inhabited by Muslims, although a significant minority of Christians also live there. The founding organisation, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), was established in the 1960s and began a series of terrorist attacks and assassinations against the Philippine state and Christians living in Mindanao. MILF acrimoniously split off from the MNLF in 1977, when hardliners felt the MNLF had become too moderate an organisation. Relations between the two groups worsened in 1987, when the MNLF accepted the government's offer of creating a semi-autonomous region called the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). MILF refused the offer and continued its violent campaign.

The Peace Process: Breakthrough Appeared Imminent Until Supreme Court Verdict

A ceasefire was brokered between the government and MILF by Malaysia in 2003, and the peace process has been ongoing ever since. Talks have focused on the establishment of an "ancestral homeland" to be referred to as the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) and, more importantly, the proposed size and level of autonomy for the region. The intervening period has been marked by several near-agreements and subsequent stalling. Furthermore, radical factions of the organisation have continued to engage the military in violence despite the peace process, particularly in 2007 with the death of 14 Philippine marines. The process was further complicated by resistance from the MNLF. The ARMM, which has several MNLF members in its local government, would become part of the BJE, and the MNLF has argued that this would violate its own agreement with the government. As such, hard-line elements of the MNLF have been actively trying to stoke violence and sabotage the peace process as well.

Nonetheless, a breakthrough seemed imminent last month. According to the government, MILF was verbally offered the creation of a federal state on the island of Mindanao. This proposed deal marked a significant shift in the government's negotiating stance, as it had previously reneged on a deal to grant the area more autonomy, halting talks in late 2007. The proposed deal now set out that the existing ARMM would form the core of the BJE, to become the future federal state. The BJE was envisaged to be an enlarged version of the ARMM, encompassing an additional 700 villages. A plebiscite of the affected villages would take place within six months of a deal being signed (see Philippines: 18 July 2008: Federal State to Be Created in Muslim South of Philippines).

However, the peace deal was put on hold by the Supreme Court in early August (see Philippines: 4 August 2008: Supreme Court Blocks Peace Deal After Protests in Southern Philippines). It placed a temporary restraining order on the government, preventing it from signing the agreement. The decision followed large-scale protests, particularly in the mainly Christian city of Zamboanga, where at least 15,000 people took to the streets in opposition to the agreement. The anger of local residents stemmed from the concessions made to the rebels: under the deal, large areas of Christian Mindanao would also become part of a Muslim-controlled federal state, with its own legal, banking and, education systems. Zamboanga’s mayor said he would never allow the city to become part of a Muslim state.

Violence Erupts Following the Halting of the Peace Deal

Heavy fighting erupted on 8 August in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision, with Bravo saying that the government had once again deceived the organisation. Around 1,500 MILF rebels and 2,000 AFP troops were engaged in the clashes in North Cotabato, just bordering the ARMM. The fighting erupted after MILF leaders Commander Bravo and Umbra Kato ordered their men to occupy villages, and refused to submit to government demands to evacuate. The clashes forced over 160,000 people to flee their homes and take shelter in government refugee centres, sparking an acute humanitarian crisis. At least 50 people were killed in the clashes. By 13 August, the fighting had subsided and MILF rebels were in retreat, but villagers were unable to return as the rebels had planted landmines and booby traps, in addition to completely destroying civilians’ homes. However, the lull in violence was short lived and interspersed with sporadic bombings in the region, also blamed on MILF rebels (see Philippines: 15 August 2008: Bomb Defused in Southern Philippines as Red Cross Mobilises Aid). On 16 August, renewed fighting broke out, this time in Lanao del Norte and Sarangani provinces in Mindanao. MILF rebels, again suspected to be under the command of Umbra Kato, launched a series of attacks on villages, killing civilians, and torching their homes. The rebels were met by a large AFP contingent, but they took civilian hostages as human shields and hostages as they retreated. At least 40 people were killed, but it remains unclear how many civilians remain in the hands of the rebels. The humanitarian situation will continue to cause concern for some time. Several relief organisations, including the Red Cross and the UN World Food Programme (WFP), have dispatched aid to the affected areas, but have stressed that the crisis is of a grave nature.

Outlook and Implications

Until this week, the official MILF leadership and the government had indicated a commitment to return to the negotiating table and to press on with the peace deal. The government is keen to see peace return to the resource-rich region, and MILF wants to benefit financially from having control over the vast resources of Mindanao. The ARMM currently controls the resources, but there has been little investment in the area due to the unstable security situation, which has been compounded by an ongoing Communist insurgency as well.

Today’s declaration by Bravo represents an effective shattering of the peace process. The MILF leadership had repeatedly called on Kato and Bravo to cease hostilities, but to no avail. Despite unconfirmed reports that Kato was wounded in clashes yesterday, it remains clear that the command and control structure within MILF is chaotic. As long as the MILF leadership cannot control such large swathes of the organisation, a peace deal with them is relatively worthless. Bravo himself controls large rebel areas around the mountains of Lanao, and had previously staged attacks despite the ongoing peace process. Furthermore, hardline factions of the organisation can always find safe haven among other radical elements of MNLF, and the al-Qaida-linked Islamist terrorist group Abu Sayyaf, which also operates in the southern Philippines.