Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The nomination caps what was one of the most dramatic primary seasons in U.S. history, both in terms of the gender and racial precedents, and in terms of how long it lasted. |
Implications | Barack Obama was on the back foot in the weeks leading up to the party convention as his Republican rival John McCain sharpened his attacks, but the successful convention appears to have re-injected momentum. |
Outlook | The Democrats' convention will be a tough act to follow for the Republicans next week—McCain needs to generate a similar level of excitement around his candidacy, and his pick of running-mate will be closely watched. |
Clintons Press for Unity
The big debate ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Denver (Colorado) was whether the party could successfully put the bruising primary season behind it. Barack Obama's main rival, New York Senator Hillary Clinton, would of course throw her weight behind him, but commentators were watching closely for any signs of bitterness on her, or her supporters', part. The biggest liability on the latter front was perhaps her husband, former president Bill Clinton, who was a particularly vociferous foe during the campaign. In the event, the Clintons both put on a great show of unity. Hillary spoke on Tuesday (26 August) in emotional terms and was convincing in her endorsement of her one-time rival. Bill took to the stage yesterday and, to the great relief of the Obama team, was equally unstinting in his praise. Pointedly, he stated that Obama was ready to be president, something both he and his wife questioned repeatedly during the primary campaign. Clinton was famous for his oratorical skills while president, and these were deployed once more.
In a nod to how close Clinton ran Obama during the race, her name was included alongside his for delegates to vote on. This carried potential risks—if she had secured significant numbers of votes, splits in the party would have been highlighted. In the event, Clinton performed a deft move by taking to the floor and halting the roll call mid-way, as soon as Obama had cleared the required margin. At that point Obama had 1,549 votes, to Clinton's 231. Her intervention was carefully timed to coincide with the main evening news programmes. Obama will formally accept the nomination at a sports stadium this evening.
Also on the podium yesterday was Delaware Senator Joe Biden, who formally accepted his nomination as Obama's running-mate. Biden had also been in the primary contest, but dropped out in the early stages. His selection is viewed as a means for Obama to bring greater experience—particularly on foreign affairs—onto his ticket. Biden has served in the Senate for over four decades and currently chairs the powerful foreign relations committee. Bill Clinton drew attention to the complementarity of the two during his speech: “With Joe Biden’s experience and wisdom, supporting Barack Obama’s proven understanding, instincts and insight, America will have the national security leadership we need.” Biden is not without his drawbacks, however—his outspoken nature means there are plenty of past gaffes and positions that the Republicans can embarrass Obama with. Biden used his speech to underline his working-class background—the Democrats hope that this will help win over this segment of voters that Obama struggled to attract during the primaries. Obama made a surprise appearance during Biden's speech, to a huge roar from the crowd.
Obama's Storied Ascent
Now that Obama has been the presumptive nominee for some weeks, it is easy to forget quite how remarkable his ascent has been. He is the first black candidate of a major party, and also one of the youngest at 47. He is only in his first Senate term and was almost unknown nationally four years ago. Obama has successfully portrayed himself as an agent of change, contrasting himself with the jaded and unpopular incumbent, George W. Bush. Just being novel is not enough to clinch a party's nomination, however. Obama has got there with the help of natural charisma and a gift for oratory, as well as astute political skills and alliance-building. In Hillary Clinton he faced a formidable opponent, someone who is at the heart of the Democratic establishment with a highly experienced campaign team behind her. She was the clear favourite at the beginning, but the momentum Obama built among younger Democrats in particular proved irresistible. Prior to entering the Senate, Obama spent seven years in the Illinois state senate. Before that he was a legal scholar and political organiser. He is the son of a white mother from Kansas and a black father from Kenya.
Outlook and Implications
In any campaign the different candidates will see their fortunes rise and fall: the challenge is to make sure one is ahead when the election itself arrives. At this point—with the polls so evenly balanced—it is impossible to predict with any certainty who will be in the ascendancy come November. For most of the campaign Obama has maintained a narrow lead over his rival, but this disappeared in the run-up to the convention. It is too soon to say how much of an impact the razzmatazz in Denver has had, but the Democrats have successfully steered clear of the potential pitfalls. McCain does not have the same star quality as Obama and he will have a struggle on his hands to generate the same excitement at the Republicans' convention. He is more likely to win the presidential election through exploiting voter doubts about his rival's readiness for the presidency, than he is on the basis of his own personal appeal. McCain is expected to announce his running-mate tomorrow, before the Republican convention kicks off in Minneapolis—St Paul on 1 September.